I am skeptical Biden is going to hang on to North Carolina.

[Drunken Irishman]

There's about 23% left and Biden is barely at a 3% lead in the state. It'll be close but with how much Biden has lost since leading by roughly nine at 60%, I don't see it. That's a six-point loss from the time it took to count 17% of the vote.

Bur we'll see.

[Aepps22]

1. Still Hopeful

I'm still hopeful that he can win

[Claustrum]

2. The NYT needle has turned red 30 mins ago and it's getting more red.

I thought Biden had a real chance in NC.

[oswaldactedalone]

3. Same day vote going heavily to Trump

This sucks.

[Javaman]

7. I just looked at the same nyt map. It's not red. And it still has Biden ahead

By a good margin

[Mike 03]

8. That's what I see too.

Although the margin has narrowed.

[Polybius]

19. It's at 88% win probability for Trump in NC

Who's leading now does not matter.

[Javaman]

21. Where are you seeing that? Nt

[Polybius]

22. 92% for Trump now

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc

[Javaman]

24. Pay wall nt

[Polybius]

25. I thought so too

But the subscription is free. You can also open the link in an incognito window via Chrome to see it without signing up.

[RockRaven]

4. I heard that NC counts absentee first, then same day, so the lead will only continue to shrink,

given that the absentee leans blue and same day leans red, comparatively.

I think it's gone too.

[Celerity]

5. he isn't going to win it, it is my first miss, grrr, 85% a Trump win now and climbing

its all down to PA, AZ, NV, assuming no other surprises

[herding cats]

6. I'm not optimistic either.

Sadly, this is one I hoped for.

[LuvNewcastle]

9. It was bound to be close, with all the time spent there by both campaigns,

but I think his chances are equal to Trump's. I'm much more impressed by Ohio tonight, though, and winning Ohio would be a big deal. Trump needs Ohio, especially if he doesn't get Penn. If Biden builds a firewall in Ohio and sweeps the MI, WI, IL, and MN, Trump's got a very narrow path to victory.

[Mike 03]

10. Well, you definitely seem to have a talent for this.

So what's going to happen in Ohio and Georgia?

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I think he has a better shot at Ohio than Georgia.

[qazplm135]

11. probably not

but Ohio looks winnable, PA strikes me as a place we can take, and I'd be shocked if we lost WI and MI.

There's still AZ.

So I think low 300s is what it is looking like to me which is where I always thought this was going to be.

[Windy City Charlie]

12. Trump is taking the toss-ups

I have a feeling the trend is going to continue in the rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. We're way off when it comes to state-by-state polling.

[MissB]

13. I don't disagree

But what does that mean overall

[Drunken Irishman]

16. It means Biden needs to hold onto WI, PA and MI.

Or he needs to flip Ohio.

Or win Arizona.

[MissB]

17. Well ohio isn't too bad....

I’m hopeful that wi pa and mi go to biden.

[kwolf68]

15. Nope

Unless we win all the rust belts Trump is going to get re-elected. I think we can win PA, MI, and Wi but the “he’s a shitty guy” campaign isn’t working again.

[Hanzzy72]

18. This is a major stressor for me right now.

[Raine]

20. I'm not hopeful at all about NC. 🤔 nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

23. But some of the outstanding vote is in the rural black counties, same day votes. Nt