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PTWB

(4,131 posts)
1. They're way, way off.
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:29 PM
Nov 2020

Trump is up by 300,000 in FL. That’s way more than just the Cubans in Miami Dade. The polls are fucking wrong, again.

Joe might make it but it’s gonna be really, really close.

Yavin4

(35,421 posts)
2. How so? Where exactly were they off?
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:29 PM
Nov 2020

They never said that Biden was going to win a 49 state blowout like Reagan did in 1984.

 

PTWB

(4,131 posts)
10. No, and you know that's not what I'm saying.
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:31 PM
Nov 2020

Everywhere that we have data - so far - the polls have been off. They're off in OH in Biden’s favor but everywhere else in Trump’s favor.

Yavin4

(35,421 posts)
13. Again, do you have the final vote counts in those states?
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:33 PM
Nov 2020

If not, how can you say that the polls were off?

 

PTWB

(4,131 posts)
14. I think we can at this point.
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:33 PM
Nov 2020

The same folks that had Joe up in these states had him up nationally and we can extrapolate SOME information from the 50 million votes already cast. Trump is actually up by nearly a million in the popular vote.

Yes, it’s early, but if Biden was going to win by anywhere near that much in the popular vote we would see it

We have enough information to say that the polls were off, just not enough to make meaningful conclusions about where and how much.

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
6. Yeah. If "shy Trump voters" are a real thing and they lie to pollster in a significant numbers.
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:29 PM
Nov 2020

We can't rely on any of them anymore. I still want to see more though, polling in FL was wrong in 2018 too but other places are fine. I want to see the rest before I form an opinion.

radius777

(3,635 posts)
12. Latinos were the miss this time.
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:33 PM
Nov 2020

Kornacki was talking about the border areas of TX, we did worse this time than '16, and I think those areas are working class Latinos.

calikid

(584 posts)
17. It would be a good idea if
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:50 PM
Nov 2020

you limited your posts to something you know about and understand, that way you wouldn't look so stupid!

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