Let's look at some real data - projections of 538 and Economist vs current totals

[NRaleighLiberal]

FL Economist Biden +3 538 Biden +2.5 Current Trump +3 (93% counted) NYT estimates Trump 3.1 6 point error
GA Economist Biden +1 538 Biden +1 Current Trump +15 (39% counted) NYT estimates Trump 3.5 4.5 point error
OH Economist Trump +1 538 Trump +.5 Current Biden +2.7 (60% counted) no NYT estimate
NC Economist Biden +2 538 Biden +1.5 Current Biden +1.8 (80% counted) - NYT estimates Trump +1.7 3.5 error


Just looking at FL, GA and NC, the estimated polling error is in trump's direction - between 3.5 and 6 points.

[LiberalLoner]

1. Jesus that is a huge polling error.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. It is very 2016-esque - even bigger - let's see what happens in other regions

[coti]

14. It's almost like the vote numbers themselves are bullshit. Nt

[phylny]

2. For the mathematically challenged,

what does this mean?

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. it means the difference between the polls and what we are seeing is between 3.5 and 6% different

to trump's advantage.

[superpatriotman]

7. People lie to pollsters

Especially right wingers

[phylny]

10. Thanks to you both.

[dustyscamp]

24. Pretty much this

[dhol82]

3. Fuck, no

Will not believe this.

[Claustrum]

5. If it's 6, PA might be in trouble.

[AleksS]

8. Where the HELL are new votes for Trump coming from?

Who lived through 4 years of this and said--well, I didn't vote for him before, but he's really grown on me...

[Yavin4]

9. Not all of the votes have been counted yet.

Keep that in mind.

[NRaleighLiberal]

12. agreed - but the number NYT comes up with looks at which counties have yet to be counted

On the 538 Live blog, there is a bit of concern creeping in - and the discussion is headed toward some surprising polling errors.

[NorthOf270]

11. Polling may die tonight

No one is gonna listen if they've blown it again.

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. For my wife and I, politics may die tonight.

[herding cats]

16. Along with our country.

What do we do now? I'm lost.

[herding cats]

15. I'm fine with the death of polling.

They're causing us nothing but problems and driving our opposition to the polls.

I'm sorry, I'm having a rough night.

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. me too, and I am with you.

trying to decide which junk food to eat next

[herding cats]

21. I made jalapeo poppers. I wish I could share.

They're terribly bad for you, but I still went there tonight. The peppers are from my garden, you'd love them. Just the right spice, but not too hot.

I'm focusing on my little things which make me happy tonight.

[NRaleighLiberal]

22. just had some of the halloween candy we bought (but had no takers).

dark chocolate kit kats, peanut butter snickers.

[herding cats]

23. I want to be at your home tonight!

I don't have candy here... no trick or treaters here, so no excuse for the purchase. I need dark chocolate Kit Kat's! ❤️

My heart to you and yours, old friend.

[Hoyt]

17. Is Polling considered Science nowadays?

[NRaleighLiberal]

19. good one. pseudoscience for sure!

[Roland99]

20. one pollster had it closer and it scares me to death seeing their polls in other states: Trafalgar

Pennsylvania: Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2
Georgia: Trump 50, Biden 45 Trump +5
Nevada: Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump 49, Biden 47 Trump +2
Michigan: Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
Ohio: Trump 49, Biden 44 Trump +5
Arizona: Biden 46, Trump 49 Trump +3