Win PA, we win the POTUS, it's that simple, barring any major surprises (FL & NC were not surprises)

[Celerity]

this map is the WORST I can see us doing if we win PA

[elleng]

1. We won't know PA for (maybe) days,

as they refuse to look at 'early' votes until tomorrow.

[July]

13. Incorrect.

Some PA counties are trying to get early votes counted now. Philadelphia County, for example, started counting early votes as soon as the polls opened today, per PA law.

There is no “refusal,” the count is bound by current law to begin on and not before election day.

PA GOP opposed changes to law to allow early counting of mail votes. In one county, election authorities say they will not count mail votes received by 11/6, which may be legally counted per PA law, recently litigated, until the Supreme Court authorizes it, even though it may not even be addressed by that court.

[BusyBeingBest]

2. Looks pretty good.

[Celerity]

14. I have only missed 1 state so far (NC, which I had Red until this morning, went with a hunch, badly)

In 2016, I missed 2 states

FL (had it Blue, learnt my lesson there)

and MN (had it Red, which it almost was by a few thousand votes)

I won my uni class pool (needless to say, unfortunately)

I drill down to district level and its showed (in 2016) a huge flow of working class whites breaking late for Rump, Comey and the huge Obamacare rate increases (long forgotten, seldom discussed but had a negative poll impact right before and during Comey) played a massive role, and also I saw depressed A-A turnout coming then in 4 cities, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, plus Chicago and Minneapolis, which did not matter)

this year, too many variables (COVID-19 nightmare, plus systemic election fraud attempts by the Rethugs on an Olympian level) to be as precise via a scientific analysis

This was my final 2020 map

[onetexan]

3. Agree, & thank you!!

[bamagal62]

4. I'mso worried.

[Saboburns]

5. I'm not giving up on NC

Biden up 2% with 80% in.

[Celerity]

6. NYT says otherwise (94% Rump win)

[Homoudont]

7. Pa is the Keystone state

Pa is the Key

[sarisataka]

8. Wisconsin...

263-275

[Polybius]

9. As long as we hold onto Michigan

Right now that's not a given.

[dem4decades]

10. NC Georgia Texas fools gold.

[Celerity]

15. TX yes, but going to NC and GA was about the Senate as well

[misanthrope]

11. What something like that says to me

is that far too many Americans are comfortable with bigotry and fascism.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Something up in Nevada?

[Celerity]

16. nothing other than it was always my number 1 Rethug flip wild card for the last 2 months

pure gut call

BUT

I did predict we win it

look at my wording

I said that the OP map is the WORST I can see us dong as long as we win PA

this was my actual final map predictions

only have missed NC so far (had it Red until this morning, went on a hunch, and the hunch was wrong)