Trump made up 8.3% difference in vote between 50% and 60% of Ohio's

[coti]

cumulative vote.

Interesting how that could ever mathematically occur in a fair election, between any two people, anywhere.

[Codeine]

1. It's inevitable

based on precincts turning in their numbers. Big jumps one way or the other is exactly what you’d expect.

[coti]

6. It's basically adding almost the entirety of the vote between

that 50% and 60%. Because votes for Biden take away- only half of the remainder are Biden's.

[CentralMass]

2. There is no shortage if assholes in this country.

[BusyBeingBest]

3. One medium sized county that heavily favors trump can do that I think.

[coti]

7. No, that would be an urban area. Nt

[getagrip_already]

4. we were never going to win oh, tx, or fl.....

or ga for that matter. They were all stretch goals.

Breathe. This was never going to be easy.

[Blue Owl]

5. Interesting.

Especially given the widely-known, proven fact that tRump can't succeed without lying, cheating, or stealing.

[at140]

9. Elmer Gantry Trump is just an entertainer

attracting large hordes of people in rallies eager for free entertainment.

[AleksS]

8. Yeah. While that seems pretty big, it's not completely out of the expected.

These precincts are going to break 70-30 or more one way or the other. Rural precincts are breaking 70-30 for Trump, urban precincts 70-30 for Biden. So when a few rural precincts turn in their totals, you get a big swing for Trump. When a few urban ones turn in their votes, you get a big swing for Biden. Not good for the blood pressure, that's for sure.

To be completely honest, I do personally, and without evidence, believe that R's are cooking the books in rural areas, and submitting vote totals that include a lot of R votes by people who didn't actually vote "Oh, Sally Cook, she sure would have voted for Trump, I can't believe she didn't make it in today, well, we'll just put her vote in for her!" BUT, that's just a personal belief, with only anecdotal support, to explain the bizarre levels of voting coming in from rural and small communities--the numbers make it seem like pretty close to every single solitary last rural American over 18 actually turned in a vote this year, and I don't believe that actually happened--but I have no evidence for that.

[at140]

10. Does that mean rural people have Neanderthals mentality?

[AleksS]

12. Based on the last couple elections, I don't believe they have

ANY mentality at all.

[coti]

14. An 8.3% jump with 10% of the cumulative vote would mean

Biden got 8% of those votes at issue.

8%.

Have you seen Biden at 8% in ANY county, let alone one that would make up a full 10% of the vote in ANY state?

[Ms. Toad]

11. That's what I've been warning about.

More than half of the votes were early voting - those were overwhelmingly Democratic. The votes today (the added 10%) were overwhelmingly republican.

The impact of early voting was to order the counting of the ballots - count all of Biden's first, then count all of Trumps.

It isn't quite that dramatic - BUT - it does overwhelmingly skew the early impression.

[coti]

15. How could you ever take any 10% sample of the vote, anywhere

in the US, and have Biden only get 8% of that vote??

[Ms. Toad]

17. Because it is not a random sample. It's pretty simple math.

The first 50% of the vote came from early voting - which is overwhelmingly Democratic. The rural areas are overwhelmingly Republican - and more so since the Democrats in those areas voted early. So essentially the only thing you added in that 10% were the rural county republicans.

[coti]

20. None of the other 10% samples, early or same day, will end up

with Biden with 8% of the vote. Guaranteed.

Look at the rest of the numbers. This is total garbage.

[Klaralven]

13. Campaign 2020: How and when are absentee ballots counted in Ohio? When do results start coming in?

Different sets of counties report on different 15 minute times.

https://www.wtol.com/article/news/politics/campaign-2020/how-when-absentee-ballots-counted-ohio/512-e5587a8b-dacb-4f61-9aa9-f2025c1a425e

[Ms. Toad]

18. Early/absentee are counted first - they are already in. n/t

[blitzen]

16. LOTS of votes left in the Blue strongholds, the major population centers. n/t

[Ms. Toad]

19. Far fewer than usual - since half to 2/3 of those votes came in as early voting.

What is left (including the urban areas) is much more Republican than usual.

[blitzen]

21. Kornacki's data was showing only about 40% reported in Cuyahoga...

similar numbers for the other cities. It's up to the county when to report the early votes.

[Ms. Toad]

22. I have a dozen years of on-the-ground experience, so I know what get reported - when. n/t

[Ms. Toad]

23. here's the phenomenon i'm talking about

This is a a blue stronghold example (Summit)

President and Vice President


Overall % Mail IP EV Elect day
Joseph R. Biden (DEM) . . . . . . 148,151 53.92 79,699 23,606 44,846
Donald J. Trump (REP) . . . . . . 122,023 44.41 35,516 10,362 76,145
Jo Jorgensen (LIB) . . . . . . . 2,905 1.06 1,018 173 1,714
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 871 .32 391 47 433
Howie Hawkins . . . . . . . . . 836 .30 371 55 410

You see that Biden won by a significant margin Overall in a relative blue stronghold (54% - 44%_

The first votes counted (Mail & IP EV) were also strongly for Biden (103,305 - 45,878)

Then come the deep red rural - and overwhelm the early blue. In a normal year, the election day population would have been predominantly Blue (and we count on them to overcome the rural red) - BUT - this year we stole the blue votes from election day and they are already counted. (See the last column)