three more important posts from the 538 live blog
NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 9:42 PM
I’ve been looking a bit at Johnson County, Kansas (the wealthy Kansas City suburbs), where Biden is +8 with 98 percent reported. Trump won it by +3 in 2016. If that Johnson County result is as complete as claimed, it would be a good sign for Biden in other Midwestern suburbs.
LEE DRUTMAN
NOV. 3, 9:44 PM
Since it’s looking less and less like we’ll see a Democratic blowout tonight, this has consequences, even if Democrats eventually win the trifecta. For one, it makes it harder for Republicans to move on from Trump’s hold on the party, since Trump will likely wind up having overperformed expectations. A return of moderate Republicans was already unlikely, but it is becoming less and less so by the minute tonight. Second, it will make it harder for Democrats to get much done. They really need 52 or 53 seats in the Senate to have a chance at getting rid of the filibuster and moving some major legislation. That’s looking less likely right now.
NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 9:47 PM
Chris Christie just said on ABC that he thinks Trump will win Ohio by 1 to 2 points. Maybe … but, if so, it’s not such a bad result for Biden in terms what it implies for other states because that’s basically what the polls showed there. If Biden loses Ohio by 1 or 2, he’s probably winning Pennsylvania, in other words.
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