Betting markets were closer than polls and modelers

[DrToast]

No matter the outcome, that’s interesting.

[jmbar2]

1. I'm watching stock futures - bright green

Seem to be betting on a Biden win. Or maybe just relief at having the election uncertainty over, and the prospect of passage of the financial stimulus.

[DrToast]

3. I meant the betting markets for the election.

They’ve always had Biden in the 60-70% to win range. 538 had Biden at 89%. The Economist was something like 95%.

[dem4decades]

2. Polls aren't worth crap.

[DrToast]

4. But what did the betting markets look at?!

What information were they using that seemed much better?

[jmbar2]

5. Wondering the same about the futures

The stock market has been very sensitive to political news lately. That's why the green futs are sort of reassuring to me tonite. But I could be wrong.

[Zeitghost]

7. Bookmakers

Bookmakers set a line where they feel half the money will be on one side and half on the other. Then they adjust as bets come in trying to maintain that 50/50 split. That way the losers pay off the winners and the house collects their fees.

[DrToast]

10. Not sure what point you're trying to make

Nothing contradicts what I said. There is still a derived probably based on the betting markets. And Biden was 60-70% favorite to win.

[ansible]

8. The results get more accurate when money is actually on the line

[joshcryer]

9. Pollsters were lied to. Betting markets have the actual truth.

Pollsters can't really do anything about liars and cheats who intentionally and willfully lie.

[highplainsdem]

6. According to tweets I saw, betting markets had Biden ahead for quite a while until Florida

votes came in this evening favoring Trump. Then there was a sudden swing to Trump.

[DrToast]

11. Yeah, I just saw they're heavily favoring Trump now

That seems nuts to me, but we'll see.
:/