I'm worried about Ohio.

[Drunken Irishman]

No, I get Biden isn't going to win it. But Trump is now up seven and that was a state that looked to at least shift reasonably toward Biden's way. Except now it's trending to the same margins Hillary saw there in 2016, which means we could see a similar situation play out in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[BusyBeingBest]

1. Could be that they have gotten more like Indiana, KY, WV--

and not necessarily that they predict PA, MI, WI.

[PTWB]

2. It's not looking good.

Biden is down 11 in MI with nearly half the votes in. He will make a lot of that up with the mail in votes... but it is almost at the point where it will be too little, too late.

[mvd]

3. I think he'll win MI. Big urban areas there

OH doesn’t look so good, though.

[PTWB]

4. He's got a lot of ground to make up.

I think he will make most of it up with mail in voting... but to make up 11% with nearly half the vote left? It could happen... but it very realistically may not.

[mvd]

7. A lot of blue can make up a lot of ground

Haven’t seen anyone really worried yet.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I won't go that far. I'll have to see what it's like when the urban centers are reporting.

[PTWB]

6. Just based off of how everything else is trending.

It’s a lot of ground to make up but not impossible. I look forward to seeing your analysis.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. The good news is that with Arizona, if Biden can take PA and WI, he's won.

The bad news is that if Michigan slips, there's no reason to believe it won't also happen in WI and PA.

[PTWB]

9. I agree.

A lot of votes outstanding but a lot of ground to make up.

This is the nightmare scenario though - mail in votes in two or three, slow counting states will decide the election. Expect Trump incite all kinds of violence if he ends up losing this way.