Breakdown of PA mail votes still to count by registration

[DrToast]

Link to tweet

This seems good.

[SidDithers]

1. If they break out that way, Biden picks up 860k votes...nt

Sid

[DrToast]

4. I've read other sources say it's actually 2.2 million ballots

So it could be even more.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Unless Biden wins that 11%, it won't be enough to overcome Trump's lead.

He'll need some strong same-day voting in Philadelphia or he's going to lose Pennsylvania.

[DrToast]

14. Can I see your math?

Not disagreeing, but I'd be curious how you arrive at that.

The NY Times estimates 50% of the votes are in. So that would mean they expect 7 million votes.

That implies 1.3 million votes remaining outside the mail ballots + 2.2 million mail ballots = 7 million votes.

Right now Biden is down 500,000 votes.

[Drahthaardogs]

17. 1.6 million Democrats voted by mail

Compared to 500,000 Republicans.

[MLAA]

2. Excellent!

[Renew Deal]

3. Exit polls in PA also look good for Biden

We'll see

[Bev54]

5. MSNBC is reporting something hinky going on in a few counties

in PA. Not sure what, they didn't want to report until they learn more about it.

[Sugarcoated]

11. Can you explain?

[MissB]

13. MSNBC didn't explain

Other than to say there were two counties with something wrong. Kornacki made it sounds like a glitch.

[Hoyt]

7. That definitely looks good. But dang it, we shouldn't have to be doing these calculations to keep

from jumping off a tall building.

[IvanMascervesa]

8. So then Trump takes the late counts back to court?

Didn’t they try not allowing the late counts in PA but the tied 4-4 SCOTUS sent it back to the Fed court...for now 😳

[DrToast]

9. These are ballots already received

Trump was going to try to contest ballots received after today. There is no remote legal justification for trying to not count these votes. Don't sweat it.

[Blue_true]

16. They are not late arriving votes.

The state can't start counting mail-in votes until election day. They had a choice, run an active vote election of count main votes. They chose to run election day and report election day vote count. The mailin ballots were close to 3:1 democrat to republican and about 2:1 democrat to republican/independent. So unless Trump piles up close to a 20 point lead today, he won't win the state unless a good amount of democrats break for him, and early estimates were that was not happening. Also, a good number of the republicans that voted by mail defied Trump's instructions, it is possible that a decent percentage of their votes are for Joe.

[tarheelsunc]

12. If you assume all Repubs and Inds voted for Trump...

and all Dems voted for Biden, Biden would net 640,000 votes from this batch. He's currently down by 500-600,000. So that makes Pennsylvania look pretty safe for Biden.

[Blue_true]

18. Early estimates on the early mailin vote was that 12% of

mailin voting republicans were voting for Biden and 2% of early voting democrats were voting for Trump. I believe I read that independents broke for Biden on the early vote. Democrats outnumbered republicans by close to 3:1 on the early vote and outnumbered republicans and all other voters by ~2:1. Also, not all of the election day vote from strong democratic counties is in yet, so Trump's lead is likely to shrink a lot before the mailin results are reported.

[Quixote1818]

15. That would give Biden about a 200,000 vote lead if he gets 70% of that. nt