HOW THE FUCK CAN THE POLLING BE OFF BY SO MUCH?

[Dawson Leery]

[bamagal62]

1. My thoughts, exactly.

[Ztolkins]

8. What did the campaign not expect to happen?

I know we hoped for a blowout . But anyone worth listening to said that this exactly thing would happen

[Tribetime]

41. No. Wrong 10 point natuonal ...rigged

[Boogiemack]

45. It's not over yet. Hang in there. nt

[NameAlreadyTaken]

2. Is good. Machines fixed.

Now you have glass of best Russian wodka.

V. Putin

[Pachamama]

27. +100000

Sadly this is what is happening

[radius777]

49. yep, it started in 2004 in Ohio

perhaps before.

The GOP has shown they'll do anything to win.

Polls can't be so wrong in the same direction in two consecutive elections - once yes, but twice is improbable.

[Captain Zero]

51. Exactly. Nothing ever done about their interference

Check the largest precincts in every state there will be higher than expected Trump vote there. That where they steal votes from tabulators. They hack. They are good and getting better.

[AntiFascist]

56. I wonder...

whatever happened to the DUers who were investigating the Republican companies that own the voting machines??

[LovingA2andMI]

3. Because....

People are lying to pollsters and the pollsters stats suck.

[live love laugh]

26. Why would they lie? There's no gain for lying. nt

[LovingA2andMI]

32. Because....

Some Humans suck and know how to lie.

[live love laugh]

34. So you're saying "some humans" equals tens of millions of voters lying to pollsters? nt

[A HERETIC I AM]

40. Pollsters don't talk to "tens of millions"

Not even close.

Gallup uses a model where they can talk to around 2000 people and get a national consensus.

In 42 years worth of being able to vote and actually doing so, I think I have been polled maybe twice.

The various polling organizations combined likely talk to less than a hundred thousand folks a year, tops.

[misanthrope]

46. To be contrarian

because they are mad at everything and just want to burn it all down. Or because they don't trust "pointy-headed intellectuals" and outsiders. Or because they think it will monkey wrench the opposition's ability to strategize.

[Codeine]

4. Because technology and social changes

seem to be rendering that sort of thing obsolete. The industry may be dead until they demonstrate new models with higher levels of reliability.

[Dawson Leery]

6. Polling does not work. Agreed.

I no longer trust them.

[radius777]

50. +1. Only a small percentage of people answer

the phone or do email surveys etc - and this group may not be representative.

[Skid Rogue]

5. ya've got to be kidding?

[coti]

7. It isn't. There are shenanigans afoot. nt

[Evergreen Emerald]

9. Because they cheat.

Polling used to be exact and reliable. Then the Republicans started cheating. It strains credulity to believe Trump is so close.

[Hoyt]

10. Polling ain't science in this environment.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. Because his followers are fanatics.

[littlemissmartypants]

12. People lie. Never, ever believe a poll. nt

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

[misanthrope]

47. In short

They lie due to unreasonable paranoia.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

13. Pandemic and mail-in ballots might have a lot to do with it.

[dchill]

14. They're not off. They weren't off in 2016...

...Republican state governments make their own results.

[pimpbot]

15. Face it, there are a lot of dump supporters out there

They seem to take pride in not answering polls truthfully. Looking at the national vote numbers, he will probably get somewhere around 65-70 million votes. I'm not sure how they handle this going forward but at this point it seems most are meaningless, at least in the swing states.

It will be interesting to see how close the national numbers align.

[Quixote1818]

16. Do we know that it is yet?

FL, GA and NC were all paper thin and we can still win GA. Trump winning there was within the margin of error. Good chance MI, WI and PA end up close to the polling. AZ looks like a pickup so that was right.

[Talitha]

17. That's why I never depend on the 'pollercoasters'.

[Violet_Crumble]

18. Didn't the pollsters say it wouldn't be decided on the night?

I feel like I should type that in CAPS LOCK!

Cool your jets. Go to bed and get some sleep. Wait until all the votes are counted before reacting. Easier said than done, I know, but right now I don't see the point in going all doom and gloom...

[Amishman]

19. the shy trumpster might very well be real

[JonLP24]

22. I agree

Because the polls were very accurate for the primaries.

[DonCoquixote]

20. because trumpist lie

especially the ones that like trump, but do not want to be associated with the mouth breather, aka "we just like his taxes"

[unblock]

21. Easy when a partisan shithead controls the mailing process.

[hamsterjill]

23. Have you ever been polled?

Because I haven’t. Never once.

It’s make believe projection and should never be considered anything other than that.

[oswaldactedalone]

28. I was polled this year

I just decided to answer a cell call from an unknown number just for the heck of it. Turns out it was a pollster although the questioner wouldn't reveal the name of the company doing the polling.

[58Sunliner]

24. Biden polled in Va up by 11%+ and won by 6.5%.

Is that outside the margin of error? Or Russia? 2018 was an anomaly? Or are the # of votes for DT an anomaly? 26.5% of all eligible voters supposedly voted for that pos in 2016. Supposedly he lost support, yet with increased voting he gains votes? It smells.

[Tommymac]

37. My own opinion is that they're off by around 5% everywhere.

Maybe when I sit down tomorrow and look at the numbers factually it won't really be that way...

but something feels wrong.

Got the same feeling I had in 2004.

[58Sunliner]

38. Same here. Same feeling I had in 2016.

[uponit7771]

53. +1

[Raine]

25. Trump voters who didn't want to say. 🤔 nt

[live love laugh]

29. Polling isn't off, the tallying is. nt

[garybeck]

30. what makes you think the election results are correct and the polls are off?

[garybeck]

31. what makes you think the election results are correct and the polls are off?

[SharonClark]

33. Maybe because they undercounted the categories

of people who would vote for trump. We were told that the polls were more accurate in 2018 because they adjusted their methodology from 2016 to include more non-college white males. Who did they miss this time?

[d_b]

35. heh

the republican party is a cult; the democratic party (since the 80s) is the 'we're not those guys' party... and that's not good enough--people see through that shit.

The republican party now knows that they can win with a neo-nazi demagogue...and we don't have any more barack obamas.


Also, i've had a 5th of Jack and then some. I dunno wtf's going on anymore. But fuck everyting

[torius]

36. Tempers don't answer their phones

in order to confound pollsters, according to the Trumpers I see posting in the few places I see a mixture of Ds and Ra and others posting.

[Ell09]

39. I find it interesting how so many on our side are willing to take this as gospel

In 2016 a bunch of magical rural and exurban white people came out in unlikely numbers to vote for Donald Trump. In 2020, supposedly Latino people of very different backgrounds decided to back Trump in big numbers (in Miami and in border towns in Texas). Then we're also supposed to believe that there's all these "shy" Trump voters when they are out at their rally's and wearing their MAGA hats or throwing fits when asked to wear a mask.

The pollsters tried to adjust this time, and it seems like they made as big of an error (or larger) in the same direction as last time? And not just for Trump, but for people like Collins, Tillis, and Ernst as well? To say I am skeptical would be an understatement.

[radius777]

54. Exactly, it's improbable that lightning would strike twice.

The same error in the same direction that all break just perfectly.

[uponit7771]

57. THIS !!!! "as big of an error (or larger) in the same direction as last time?" 👈🏾👈🏾👈🏾

[Tribetime]

42. 👍funny how there's so much hate for trump

And the polls are way off.never before except for drumpf twice. WAKE UP RIGGED BY PUTIN

[Blue_Tires]

43. That's my question as well...

Biden up SIXTEEN FUCKING POINTS last week

and he was up TEN points as of *Sunday*

I'm never listening to another pollster again.

[Hekate]

44. "The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything"

That’s how. Nonetheless it’s not over.

Josef Stalin (disputed attribution):
It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.

[Yavin4]

48. Trump chicanery.

He's flat out cheating. When you keep pulling off upsets and winning the MOE every time, that's cheating.

[UCmeNdc]

52. Electronic Voting

[budkin]

55. Seems like the results have to be manipulated right?

RIGHT??

[uponit7771]

58. The 10 - 20% swing in polling says there's something wrong