538 Live blog assessment of Biden's best paths to a win

[NRaleighLiberal]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 1:27 AM
So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.

Less likely paths would involve his winning North Carolina, or other scenarios where he loses Wisconsin or Michigan but does well enough elsewhere.

[greyl]

1. Right, and Arizona and NE-02 have been called for Joe by some outlets. nt

[Doodley]

5. That looks very doable!

[SharonClark]

2. That's what is being said on MSNBC, too.

[Diraven]

3. I'm trying not to be pessimistic

But as of now out of all the states you mentioned it looks like he'll win Arizona and that's all.

[sprinkleeninow]

4. NC's got what 6 days from yesterday to count absentee ballots?

Could it be? Could it be?

[Doodley]

6. This is the best thread I've seen for hours! Makes me 1000% more optimistic.

[Rstrstx]

7. A variant of Option 3

Win GA, AZ, and NE-2, hold WI. GA and MI have the same number of electoral votes. That gets 270 electoral votes. I can’t imagine anyone would have predicted a map like that.

PA is disturbing, the NYT exit poll had Biden +3 but it is going to go down to the wire. WI looks better than MI at this point, I think (rather, hope) both will eventually end up going to Biden after all absentees are counted.

Looking at the margins in AZ I don’t see how Biden loses there, he’s still up over 9 points in Maricopa County and they’ve counted close to 80% of their total.

[wackadoo wabbit]

9. But, unfortunately, the Arizona counties that have reported the least number of votes thus far

are also those that skew heavily Republican.

So while I still believe that Biden will win Arizona, it's, alas, not a sure thing yet.

[gldstwmn]

8. Biden is closing the gap in Georgia.