NOTE: No other developed country gets their polling THIS wrong this many times in favor of 1 party.

[uponit7771]

NOTE: No other developed country gets their polling THIS wrong this many times in favor of 1 party.

We're talking about a couple of decades of "close" elections consistently tilt republican, or when dems are up 2% beyond MOE in swing states we come out even.

EDIT: You can point towards the extreme exception in Brexit but that proves the rule; Brexit was once towards one party not 20 years towards one party even heavy weighted towards that party.

EDIT: ***VOTER SUPPRESSION WORKS !!!*** Pollsters CONTINUE to ignore it or not weight it properly and "Just vote" doesn't negate the inability to do such.

Somethings wrong with somethin when it comes to US voting or at the least US polling

[VMA131Marine]

1. Er ... the UK would like a word

[uponit7771]

2. once towards one party, not 20 yrs towards one party even weighted towards that party.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

47. It got the winner wrong in 1992 & 2015 in the Tory's favour

and was wrong in the opposite direction when Labour stripped them of their majority (but ultimately still lost) in 2017. Last year, the pollsters adjusted and were close to the money.

I think the problem in the US is that a disproportionate amount goes into state polling. Improve national polling first and extrapolate from there. Looking back prior to 2000, it seems to me that state polling was far less prominent.

[MaryMagdaline]

3. What other developed country has a variable of "likely voter" that is so

Unpredictable? Other countries have high turnout in a regular basis or even mandatory voting.

Hate to say it but this asshole and GW before had a way of scooping up the knuckle draggers who might not have voted for people like Romney or McCain.

[uponit7771]

5. The US LV voter is peered reviewed and fairly static data. On the data science side the US shouldn't

... be further away than India and China.

Polling sucks in this country or something else is very wrong.

[JonLP24]

10. There were several people that predicted a Trump victory

Or closer than expected election based on "shy Trump" voters.. Those articles were ripped when posted but that is the only explanation I can think of as far as 2016 & 2020.

[uponit7771]

11. That's not going out on a limb in essentially a 2 person race, the sampling this time was tighter

... than ever in the history of the US.

The reported MOEs were in the 2s before the election, no ... somethings wrong.

Science is science, BS comes when "ignore science" becomes the retort

[JonLP24]

12. I mean pollsters

In 2016, pollsters Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly saw Trump coming. In 2020, they see polls again underestimating his support.

(Snip)

Election Day is next week. National polling averages show Biden leading Trump by around 9 points. In 2016, averages had Clinton up by around 3 points, but you both ran polls that showed Trump winning the presidency. What do you see this year?

Robert Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group: Well first, we don’t do national polls, and that’s for the same reason I don’t keep up with hits in a baseball game: It’s an irrelevant statistic. But the battleground-state polls are a little closer [than the national polls], and there’s a lot at play. People are going to be shocked. A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high.
(Snip)

Polls are undercounting the people who don’t want to give their real opinions. If they had corrected anything, why didn’t they see Ron DeSantis winning in his 2018 race for governor in Florida? They made the exact same mistake with his opponent, Andrew Gillum. [The final RealClearPolitics polling average in that race had Gillum up by 3.6 percentage points. DeSantis won by 0.4 percentage points.] This wasn’t some random state’s race; this was the hottest, meanest—neck-and-neck races for governor and senator in Florida in an off-year election. Every single major player was polling that state. And 100 percent of them got it wrong; we got it right.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Posting the article to clarify what I mean. BTW I don't say ignore science.

[uponit7771]

13. Cahaly is wrong, I said the polls were weighted towards Trump this time and still had 2% MOEs.

He can "think" all he wants but that's not science or an explanation of how Trump weighted polls were still SO FAR off.

BS begins when "ignore science" is the retort and that's what Cahaly is saying such at minimum by not explaining his weighting towards Trump.

Polling science is science, we shouldn't be so far off from other developed countries.

[AlexSFCA]

14. chalay said one of their poll questions - who do you think your neighbors will vote for

this question is more revealing.

[uponit7771]

15. That doesn't get the weighting that's needed, we can do better than anecdote questions. Other ....

... countries that have been this far off for so long for one party would've scrapped their polling by now.

Polling Science is a career field, the polls were Trump weighted this election so the "hidden" Trump voter crap is BS.

I'd like to here some relative math, stats etc from these guys not "I was right, see I told you" that's not science

BS begins when "ignore science" is the retort

[jaxexpat]

27. Localized cheating is apparently very effective.

Especially in the smaller ruralish towns where everybody waves at each other as they pass and people who sense they are the minority are mostly silent and plotting their escape.

Also the demonization of socialism has stuck, once again.

[joshcryer]

4. No other country is as polarized as the USA.

[uponit7771]

7. No, we're mid to upper mid range polarized and still fuck up the polls towards Republicans in the

... last 20 years.

Facts are facts, there's something wrong with polling at least in this country

[Hestia]

16. Give it back to League of Women Voters - didn't they have it for decades before Turdblossom?

They did the exit polls too. All via paper. Part of the problem is that millennial's refuse to give money to org's like LoWV and Parties. Gonna have to cough up funds to keep old school, non-partisan org's going, not new algorhythm based ones. I think that is where we are going wrong.

Yeah, first thing I thought too when I woke up - HITF can the polling be this far off every time? Or are the millennial and gen zer's are just has hateful and stupid as their parents.

OR

Every voting machine needs to be scrapped and melted down (looking for spyware) and start over.

[uponit7771]

17. +1

[JonLP24]

40. Look at the National exit polls

Biden actually did well with Seniors. 50-50. He won a majority of everyone younger than 65.

[malaise]

6. Stunning indeed

They steal votes very effectively

[Tommymac]

19. Last 20 year's result also correlate with the rise of Putin.

Just sayin'.

[DENVERPOPS]

42. Putin

AND was it the CEO of Diebold who promised he would deliver W a win in Ohio and elsewhere ?????? We are probably still using, across the nation, the same exact voting machines and tabulators used since 2000.......

No one can ignore the simple fact that the Corporate Fascist Dictatorship (AKA: the new RepubliCON party) has tampered to the max with every single last facet of our voting system.....

Changing polling locations, removing mass numbers of polling places, removing mass numbers of vote drop off locations, intentional massive delays of post office, declaring mail in ballots illegal, not counting military ballots, ignoring and interfering with "states rights" on voting procedures, allowing and in fact welcoming foreign interference from several enemy nations, interference from the RepubliCON U.S. Supreme Court,voter list purges, and who knows about all the shit we haven't discovered that they have done...

I would love to see someone, smarter than me, make a list of all the one sided tampering that this administration has done regarding the voting......

I will be especially shocked if the Military absentee ballots are not counted and the Generals and Commanders refuse to correct that from happening........However, with what we have already seen by those in charge of the military, I would expect they will let that slide in addition to all that they have already ignored that Trump & RepubliCONs have done to our armed forces......

Sadly, even if Biden legitimately wins, does anyone truly believe this Corporate Fascist Dictatorship already in place, and the RepubliCON controlled Senate and U.S. Supreme Court will allow that to happen??????

And what about tampering in the "landslide" wins by Mitch McConnell and other RepubliCON Senators??????

[uponit7771]

34. Or suppress them with military spec precision. Suppression is Bad Vlads key vote tool no doubt

[LizBeth]

8. I agree. Instead of having to win beyond 5% counting theft we have to push it to 9%.

[uponit7771]

9. Right ?! Then we'll still just be up .5% ... yeah, somethings wrong with somethin

[JI7]

18. What other Developed Country has a Major Party that denies evolution, supports shitty gun policies

denies climate change etc ?

[mtnsnake]

37. Yup, that is the question we should all be asking.

With Republicans it's always money in their pockets that takes precedence over everything else.

[bucolic_frolic]

20. We need stealth Democrats to infiltrate Republican ranks and find out what's going on

I think it's churches and family networks. You can probably add cell phones nowadays.

2018 we caught them unprepared.

[uponit7771]

30. +1, Tio Bernie (not Sanders) gives us a huge clue but it doesn't explain how wrong the polls are

[OhioTim]

21. All Of Those Republicans From The Lincoln Project

and even James Carville said that Biden was going to kick Trump's butt.

[rainin]

22. Voter suppression. n/t

[uponit7771]

32. +1, ... and democrats and pollsters not factoring it in to the degree it helps republicans

[Mr. Sparkle]

23. Trump got 1 million more votes in Florida than in 2016, Joe Got 700,000 compared to Hillary.

That doesn't make any sense to me. Older voters were supposed to be abandoning Trump over covid, ex felons were allowed to vote for the first time.

[In It to Win It]

24. They tried really hard to keep ex felons away from the polls

Trump significantly outperforming his 2016 total was surprising to me.

The raw gain in Miami Dade completely shook me.

[MrModerate]

26. The nonsense word "socialism" has great power in Southern Florida. n/t

[MerryBlooms]

48. Fox has been screaming "Socialism" none stop 24/7 since the primaries.

One of the folks I take care of watches nothing but Fox, so I have been hearing it when I work. Every show, every discussion, always includes "Socialism", it has been their main talking point. My client buys it hook, line and sinker. When I pointed out his healthcare was a form of socialism, he said, well, we need that. So, when dealing with republicans, there is no rational thinking, just knee jerk reaction. Most of the time I just smile and don't say anything, but when The Five comes on, I leave the room, that show is just plain disgusting, and how Juan Williams embarrasses himself daily is even more disgusting.

[MrModerate]

49. In some of the swampier places I post...

They define democrats, liberals, socialists, communists and antifas as basically the same.

[MrModerate]

25. Despite all its deep math, careful evaluation of methodology, etc., polling has proven to be useless

[Ligyron]

36. Worse than useless.

Resources get misallocated and certain key factors ignored or misread.

It will be interesting to see what % of the American population actually voted this time and I wish there was a way to find out how many tried but could not. But with mail in voting, unless the voter can or actually will bother checking to see they were counted, we may never know the exact figure.

It's frustrating and a little *strange*

[Susan Calvin]

28. It's not the polling.

It's the vote suppression.

[lildDemz]

29. Dishonest polls?

Dishonest responders. Remember how Republicans abuse truth.

[uponit7771]

35. Pollsters not factoring in voter suppression tactics

[kairos12]

31. Polls are as worthless as alchemy.

[uponit7771]

33. Not in other developed countries this long towards one party. It like S Korea, either they're

...lying about controlling covid or Trumps admin is doing horrible.

[hadEnuf]

38. The polling is not wrong this consistantly.

Many have suspected vote count tampering and there is credible evidence out there for it.

These problems were never thoroughly investigated and they did not just magically go away on their own.

Why would we even think that it would not occur again, especially since it works so well?

[uponit7771]

41. Voter suppression works big time and is minimized to the nth degree by pollsters and dem party

[hadEnuf]

43. Yes certainly that too, but it many instances this vote magic also seems too quick and too sweeping.

I don't think there is actually one direct cause, I think it is many combined.

People traditionally look for a single smoking gun but that is rarely the case when the truth comes out. If it ever comes out.

[uponit7771]

44. "I think it is many combined." and this is the key, not to be too consistent in one place every year

[azureblue]

39. Questionable vote count

this is the third presidential election where the the polls predict a Democratic win by a large margin, but the count turns out to be too close. I note that the states that don't vote as predicted all have electronic voting machines that are easy to hack. Remember Ohio last year where the votes went through a server owned by a staunch republican? Machines that did not vote as they should - push "Dem" and the machine registers GOP?

I believe that happened again yesterday. Just like with Ms Clinton, the polls and exit polls did not agree with the tabulation and the contested precincts had "funny" voting machines that cold not be verified or verification was prevented by GOP SoS's.

Biden / Harris should be on top of this - if there is one thing predictable about the GOP, when they find a dirty trick that works, they will repeat it. And yesterday's vote is no exception

[hadEnuf]

45. Agreed. Something is very rotten. (once again)

[Hotler]

46. Repugs saying they're voting dem when the phone rings with a poll. edit to add.

maybe polling by phone needs to change.