Trump leads by 618840 votes in Pennsylvania. The question is are there enough mail in

[still_one]

votes to overcome this?

[SomedayKindaLove]

1. Well last I saw before the election

Dems had about a 1.1M lead in mail in ballots in PA.

[still_one]

4. If that is so then the odds are with us

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. 1.4 million uncounted still, so if Biden gets half of those he makes up the deficit.

[still_one]

6. +++

[PCIntern]

8. Yes

Basically we have seen an election wherein metropolitan areas are non-existent. It doesn’t work that way.

[dsc]

9. ah no

he would have to win them by 50%. That would be winning them 75% to 25% so he would have to get 75% of them.

[Mike 03]

11. I was worried about this, because in counting those votes, of course, a percentage

will go to Trump, constantly adding to his total, which means Joe has to get more than 50%. Unless my math is messed up. (My cognitive function isn't at it's best right now)

[Chiyo-chichi]

13. Exactly.

"Half" doesn't close any gap if the other half go to the other guy.

[Mike 03]

15. That's what I was trying to say.

Thank you for your brevity and clarity.

[Drahthaardogs]

16. He has those numbers

Was 1.6 millions D’s to 500K R’s

[Mike 03]

18. God I hope so.

We must win PA. It's not enough just to barely squeeze past Trump.

[Drahthaardogs]

19. No need to hope

Here

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

[Mike 03]

23. Thank you

[dsc]

20. I am not saying it can't be done

I actually think it can be, but knowing what needs to be done is vital.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

17. You're right; I suck at math

especially if I've been up all night.

[dsc]

21. no problem

[Mike 03]

24. Please don't feel bad. I think we'll win PA. Besides,

your confidence got me through another hour!

[Locrian]

22. i dont get your math...

trump is ahead. if it's 50/50 then trump wins

[Statistical]

3. There are about 1.4 million mail in ballots uncounted.

Not sure the composition of what remains but statewide mail in ballots are about 2:1 D to R. That would be a net gain of around 500K.

So it will likely be a nail biter. It really comes down to what the exact composition of the remains ballots is. Biden needs a little bit more than 2:1. So not impossible but tough.

[still_one]

12. If we clinch MI and WI, with Arizona and Nevada pretty much blue, we can make it

without Pennsylvania, and if Georgia comes through that would be a bonus

It would be so nice if we can run the board with these remaining states

[grantcart]

5. Yes 1.4 million

[Mike 03]

7. If that's the latest figure, Trump has already dropped almost 100,000 votes.

He was up by 700,000 three or four hours ago.

Check out this post by Drunken Irishman. It might make you feel better:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214439448

Source on that 700,000 figure is a tweet by Nate Cohn, NYT reporter, about three or so hours ago, somewhere in this mess:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive

[Major Nikon]

10. The bigger question is Wisconsin

Biden’s lead in NV, MI, and AZ seems too big for Trump to overcome. If Biden wins Wisconsin, then PA, GA, and NC don’t matter. Trump could win them all and he will still lose.

[still_one]

14. I hope we run it all, but based on what you just said the odds are with us, and Joe is

leading in Wisconsin

[Major Nikon]

25. Biden has 238 already

Michigan and Wisconsin have 16 each so if those go to Biden he’ll have 270. Add Nevada and Biden is over the top. None of the other states will decide the winner.

[BeerBarrelPolka]

26. No

Wisconsin has 10

[Major Nikon]

28. Ah yes, obvious mistake

But AZ, MI, NV, and WI still get Biden to 270 and that means it’s over.

[still_one]

27. I believe we will get Nevada, and I would love it if we got Georgia

[Major Nikon]

29. All the in-person ballots have been counted other than provisional

The rest should favor Biden

[still_one]

30. Yes