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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » How Can We Ever Trust Pol...

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:55 AM

Star Member COL Mustard (3,681 posts)

How Can We Ever Trust Pollsters Again?

According to Nate Silver, Trump had a 10% chance of winning. Yet here we are, on Wednesday morning, and it’s still neck and neck.

What am I missing?

30 replies, 1314 views

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply How Can We Ever Trust Pollsters Again? (Original post)
 COL Mustard Nov 2020 OP
LineReply i hate polls because
 DumpTrump20202020 Nov 2020 #1
LineLineNew Reply This is why I hate them.
 redstatebluegirl Nov 2020 #26
LineReply We can't.
 Ace Rothstein Nov 2020 #2
LineReply The Economist had a 3% chance of Trump winning. Those guys get paid for that?
 doc03 Nov 2020 #3
LineReply There will be a whole lot of analysis going on.
 The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2020 #4
LineReply Really have to wait until all the vote is counted
 SomedayKindaLove Nov 2020 #5
LineReply Cheating
 crimycarny Nov 2020 #6
LineLineReply Absolutely. Voting machines can be hacked
 MyMission Nov 2020 #12
LineReply 2016 was proof they can never be trusted. 👎 nt
 Raine Nov 2020 #7
LineReply True, it's very close
 Hav Nov 2020 #8
LineReply Or, how can we ever trust electronic voting again?
 Bonn1997 Nov 2020 #9
LineReply Probability. NT
 mahatmakanejeeves Nov 2020 #10
LineLineReply Yeah, Lightning Can Strike Twice!
 COL Mustard Nov 2020 #19
LineReply Most DU'ers don't.
 hamsterjill Nov 2020 #11
LineReply Two points:
 Mike Niendorff Nov 2020 #13
LineReply I've never trusted them. Too many people lie. They think they're being cute screwing
 littlemissmartypants Nov 2020 #14
LineReply I will go with my Magic 8 Ball.
 kairos12 Nov 2020 #15
LineReply Obviously we would do better with a crytal ball and a
 leftyladyfrommo Nov 2020 #16
LineLineNew Reply Don't Forget The Chicken Entrails
 COL Mustard Nov 2020 #22
LineLineLineNew Reply At least a tarot reader has intuition. Can't say that about
 leftyladyfrommo Nov 2020 #24
LineLineLineLineNew Reply True!!!
 COL Mustard Nov 2020 #29
LineReply I won't
 frazzled Nov 2020 #17
LineReply ***FACTOR IN VOTER SUPPRESSION*** ... Voter Suppression WORKS !!
 uponit7771 Nov 2020 #18
LineReply There is not much pollsters can do if "shy Trump voters" are lying to them.
 LisaL Nov 2020 #20
LineNew Reply They have to learn how to poll in the current era
 gollygee Nov 2020 #21
LineLineNew Reply Or how to tell if people are lying to them.
 LisaL Nov 2020 #25
LineLineLineNew Reply I think Trump voters are very proud to be voting for Trump
 gollygee Nov 2020 #27
LineNew Reply How Can We Ever Trust Pollsters Again?
 R0ckyRac00n Nov 2020 #23
LineLineNew Reply We can't. We couldn't before.there is a huge
 leftyladyfrommo Nov 2020 #28
LineNew Reply Anyone still want to criticize that "work like we're 10 points behind" advice?
 JHB Nov 2020 #30

Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:56 AM

DumpTrump20202020 (109 posts)

1. i hate polls because

 

a lot of people become relaxed and stay home.

and in 2020, no excuse. You could have voted from your couch and people still didnt. Very sad. Too many people I know didn't vote. Shame on them.

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Response to DumpTrump20202020 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:08 AM

Star Member redstatebluegirl (11,938 posts)

26. This is why I hate them.

People here put so much stock in these damn polls, clearly they were not correct.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:57 AM

Ace Rothstein (2,632 posts)

2. We can't.

Polling is dead until they get it right for 3 or so straight cycles.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:58 AM

Star Member doc03 (30,985 posts)

3. The Economist had a 3% chance of Trump winning. Those guys get paid for that?

I still think there are a lot of Trump voters that are ashamed to admit they would vote for him.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:58 AM

Star Member The Velveteen Ocelot (100,719 posts)

4. There will be a whole lot of analysis going on.

I haven't a clue why the polls were off, but I thought that they'd cleaned up their methodology after 2016. Either they didn't, or they still haven't figured out how to do it.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 08:59 AM

SomedayKindaLove (243 posts)

5. Really have to wait until all the vote is counted

Before we know how much the polls are off.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:00 AM

Star Member crimycarny (1,298 posts)

6. Cheating

I don’t think the pollsters were that far off. I think there is voting manipulation by bad actors. Intelligence officials already warned that Russia had successfully hacked into voting machines across the country.

I’d like to see how close paper ballots only were to the polls.

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Response to crimycarny (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:17 AM

Star Member MyMission (1,176 posts)

12. Absolutely. Voting machines can be hacked

And we know this. We want to believe that cheating doesn't happen much, or we can overcome it by our voter turnout. Meanwhile, they've turned hacking into a science over the last 20 years.

That's why polling has become less accurate.


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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:01 AM

Star Member Raine (28,174 posts)

7. 2016 was proof they can never be trusted. 👎 nt

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:01 AM

Star Member Hav (5,916 posts)

8. True, it's very close

but with millions of votes still to be counted and Dems rather choosing to vote early, it might get closer to the poll results.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:02 AM

Bonn1997 (1,675 posts)

9. Or, how can we ever trust electronic voting again?

Regardless, Nate also reminded us that 10% is not 0%. It means that if we had these same circumstances 100 times, Trump would win 10 times.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:04 AM

mahatmakanejeeves (45,897 posts)

10. Probability. NT

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #10)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:37 AM

Star Member COL Mustard (3,681 posts)

19. Yeah, Lightning Can Strike Twice!

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:07 AM

Star Member hamsterjill (14,162 posts)

11. Most DU'ers don't.

We tried to warn people based on what happened in 2000 and in 2016. We were told we were being “negative”.

Polls mean nothing. Only the end result.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:21 AM

Star Member Mike Niendorff (3,280 posts)

13. Two points:


(1) Anything based on "land lines" is utterly, utterly obsolete. Disregard it entirely.

(2) Any analysis that presumes no interference in the vote count by state actors (Russia) is also woefully naive.


MDN

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:24 AM

Star Member littlemissmartypants (18,399 posts)

14. I've never trusted them. Too many people lie. They think they're being cute screwing

with the results.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:24 AM

Star Member kairos12 (11,272 posts)

15. I will go with my Magic 8 Ball.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:29 AM

Star Member leftyladyfrommo (16,219 posts)

16. Obviously we would do better with a crytal ball and a

deck of tarot cards.

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Response to leftyladyfrommo (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:38 AM

Star Member COL Mustard (3,681 posts)

22. Don't Forget The Chicken Entrails

Yuk.

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Response to COL Mustard (Reply #22)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:05 AM

Star Member leftyladyfrommo (16,219 posts)

24. At least a tarot reader has intuition. Can't say that about

Tossing stones and reading chicken guts.

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Response to leftyladyfrommo (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:31 AM

Star Member COL Mustard (3,681 posts)

29. True!!!

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:32 AM

Star Member frazzled (18,341 posts)

17. I won't

And just let them try to explain their way out of this one. Unless their explanation is that there was major fraud or foreign interference, there is no explanation other than that polling is just a woo undertaking of mumbo jumbo that makes a shit ton of money for the pollsters.

You might as well buy a lottery ticket.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:34 AM

Star Member uponit7771 (85,973 posts)

18. ***FACTOR IN VOTER SUPPRESSION*** ... Voter Suppression WORKS !!

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:38 AM

Star Member LisaL (44,218 posts)

20. There is not much pollsters can do if "shy Trump voters" are lying to them.

NT

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:38 AM

gollygee (22,336 posts)

21. They have to learn how to poll in the current era

Their methodologies don't take into account how to reach people now or how people get information now.

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Response to gollygee (Reply #21)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:06 AM

Star Member LisaL (44,218 posts)

25. Or how to tell if people are lying to them.

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #25)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:08 AM

gollygee (22,336 posts)

27. I think Trump voters are very proud to be voting for Trump

I don't think it's people lying.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 09:39 AM

R0ckyRac00n (79 posts)

23. How Can We Ever Trust Pollsters Again?

10% isn't zero, right? I mean I'm no math major, but... If you don't think you can roll a "1" you never played D&D as a kid! (or as an adult of course!)

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Response to R0ckyRac00n (Reply #23)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:08 AM

Star Member leftyladyfrommo (16,219 posts)

28. We can't. We couldn't before.there is a huge

section of the population that pollsters can't get to. .and apparently it's the red part.

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Response to COL Mustard (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 10:37 AM

Star Member JHB (35,224 posts)

30. Anyone still want to criticize that "work like we're 10 points behind" advice?

It seems to have held up pretty well.

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