right on cue, watching various comments on 538 live blog "people are freaking out -

[NRaleighLiberal]

we said it would be close, we said it would come down to PA", blah blah blah

Just goes to show you statisticians can do anything with numbers, and then find language that absolves them of creating any furor.

How about when three models put the EVs in the 350 range, and an 8 point lead, and the one pollster who seemed to be closest (Trafalgar) you called a shit poll - how about working to explain the various rationales of what happened, instead of complaining about how people are reacting?

They are talking quite a bit about the Latino shift in places like Texas border towns, certainly some counties in Florida.

But....sheesh.

Trying to make sense after about 4 hours of sleep. My feelings in this post (which I made at 9 PM last night) still hold true.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214432314

[malaise]

1. I'm more worried about the machines than the statisticians

It's either that or full throttle racism.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. Hi friend,

I am extremely concerned about full throttle racism. I am extremely concerned that about half of our country is OK with that.

[leftyladyfrommo]

5. Racism and misogyny. Back to the 1930's. nt

[malaise]

7. It's hard to process my friend

Since the beginning of the 20th century my folks on both side have studied and/or lived in the US. I cannot believe that, at this stage of my life, the racists are winning.

[Turin_C3PO]

2. It's not really

the pollster's fault, imo. I think it's just hard in this era to get an exact picture of where the public is.

[Claustrum]

4. Or when Trumpers said they were lying to pollster is real and numerous.

Anyhow, we can't trust any polling data for a long time until they can show us that they are right a few times before they can regain their trust.

[Turin_C3PO]

6. Agreed, we can't go by the polls anymore.

Next election, we just need to GOTV, donate, make calls, knock on doors, and pay no attention to the polls.

[Claustrum]

9. The biggest concern I have is that Trump showed our perception that republican ceiling of

6.2m is wrong. He clearly broke that by a lot. There is something that resonant with people for Trump. Yes, a lot of it is racist, sexist, etc. But there is something that draws the independents/Latino in. We have to figure out how to reach out to them.

And the "soul of the country", good moral, anti-Trump message that we ran both in 2016 and 2020 is not enough to draw enough votes. In a lot of ways, I think COVID deaths aren't a winning message either.

[Turin_C3PO]

11. I think it's

the simple fact that for whatever reason, many think Rethugs are better for the economy. We must change that perception because it's absolute bullshit.

[Pobeka]

14. I agree and it's a media problem.

I remember 8 years ago now, having dinner with with my brother and his son, talking about national debt. I was getting the standard blather about how Dem's raise the national debt. I told them in recent history the only presidential administrations to make progress toward lowering the debt were Dem's, and GOP has gone the other way. They asked where I heard that and I told them "the GAO". They were hardly able to process there could be actual facts that were completely at odds with their belief system -- their belief system to them is facts.

Both of them are Fox News viewers...

[Claustrum]

16. I think it's more than a media problem.

We, as democrats, tend to focus on the other social issues and public health aspect. We don't talk about economic issues all that much, outside of maybe Bernie.

[Claustrum]

15. I think it's the economy messaging as well.

I posted during the first debate that Biden should have linked COVID to the reopening the economy and I got some hate for it. The deaths to COVID is horrible. But not controlling COVID is the reason we can't reopen like other countries. If our infection rate is under 1%, we can all go out and things can go back to a "new normal". Unfortunately, every democrats when interviewed or in debate, only focused on the human death toll and public health aspect. It's important to say that, but it should then be linked to the economic aspect and hit Trump where it hurts.

We had the perfect economic message this year with all the comparison/facts with how other countries worked. But we never go there and ignore the economic message.

[PTWB]

19. Really?

They published polls with Joe +8 to +17 in WI.

We are lucky to squeak by 0.5 in WI.

The missed FL by about 7 points.

These guys blew it and we should never, ever listen to them again.

[C_U_L8R]

8. It's inconcievable that Trump became more popular over 3 years

How has he grown his numbers with his awful record (and polling)? I think I'm looking for statistician/politico/sociologist/psychiatrist explanations for this (if it wasn't cheated).

[doc03]

10. We could have done a better poll with one of those lotto machines with

the ping pong balls.

[TlalocW]

12. Three statisticians

Go hunting. They spot a deer. The first shoots at it, and the shot goes way left. The second shoots, and the shot goes way right. The third yells, "We got him!"

TlalocW

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. .

yup

[Pobeka]

17. Call me paranoid

But, has anyone done an analysis of how polls work versus the ballot casting mechanism (i.e. scanned paper ballots vs electronic voting)?

My impression (and it's likely flawed), is that polls used to work pretty well until Diebold et. al. got into the game.

Or maybe we are in a new age where there is enough information available to the general public that individuals being polled are actively gaming the polling process to generate false confidence?

I dunno.

Even with all of that, I'm stunned at the level of ignorance of the US population. That someone's mind can be changed by a TV political AD in the final days of an election should be a major indicator of how uninformed the electorate is about candidate's proposed policies.

[uponit7771]

18. +1, " how about working to explain the various rationales of what happened"