Susan Collins is performing under 50% in ME-SEN

[brooklynite]

Wait until RCV kicks in.

[ALBliberal]

1. What is RCV? Tia

[octoberlib]

4. Ranked Choice Voting.

[Baitball Blogger]

6. Can you explain it?

It makes no sense to me that someone who is ranked first didn't just win the ticket in the first place.

[octoberlib]

11. This is a good article with the pros and cons.

This method, also known as “instant-runoff voting,” was invented around 1870 and has since been adopted by a handful of democracies across the world. Australia has used ranked-choice voting in its lower house elections since 1918. The system essentially allows voters to choose candidates in the order of their preference, and is meant to yield a winner who most pleases the most people.

Here’s how it works. In ranked-choice voting elections, voters can—but do not have to—rank the candidates on the ballot in their order of preference. If a candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, they win the race. If not, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated, and the second-choice votes of voters who preferred the eliminated candidate are allocated to those who remain in the race. This process continues until one candidate has a majority.

https://qz.com/1676718/the-pros-and-cons-of-ranked-choice-voting/

[jcgoldie]

12. If noone gets a majority...

...then they add in voters 2nd choices... the idea is to keep a 3rd party spoiler from determining the outcome. In Maine the independent candidate was very liberal and told her supporters to choose Gideon 2nd so she didn't help Collins get reelected.

[Baitball Blogger]

17. So it was a strategy, a team effort -- and we still have a chance to boot Collins out?

[NYC Liberal]

22. Yes! If Collins gets under 50%, she's going to lose.

[Baitball Blogger]

23. +1

[jcgoldie]

25. I don't know about team effort

I just read the 3rd party candidate encouraged supporters to make Gideon 2nd choice so as not to play spoiler. I'm still doubtful that gets Gideon over the hump unless the outstanding vote gets her a lot closer.

[In It to Win It]

14. I believe that in Maine

In order to win, a candidate has to get a simple majority of all votes (50% + 1), and not a plurality.

If no candidate gets over 50%, it triggers a run off between the two biggest vote-getters, at which point the voters 2nd round choice votes are tallied.

Voters in Maine ranked their choices on one ballot. If you choose Collins as your first vote, Gideon as your second vote, and Collins doesn’t get over 50%, your second choice goes into effect. Your vote ultimately goes to Gideon.

[Klaralven]

26. There were 4 candidates, Collins, Gideon, Savage and Linn

If Collins doesn't get 50% or more, then Linn's total is zeroed out and the Linn voter's second choice is counted.

If there is still no candidate with 50% or more, then Savage's total is zeroed out and the Savage voter's second choice is counted.

Given current percentages with 72% of votes counted, essentially all of Savage and Linn voter's second choice would have to be for Gideon to put her over Collins.

[steventh]

9. Ranked-choice Voting (RCV)

Here's a link to an explanation.

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/rcv.html

Don't ask me anything about it though. I've been up all night and it's difficult to even be coherent.

[Baitball Blogger]

18. Thank you.

[Cha]

24. Thanks for asking

[octoberlib]

2. I saw a tweet that 6.5 % voted for third party candidates.

[still_one]

5. That is a huge number

[still_one]

3. Are there other states involved with RCV brooklynite?

[octoberlib]

7. Georgia has instant runoff . not ranked choice. My mistake

Jon Ossoff said the problem with instant runoff is that Democrats will all show up for the first vote but if there's a second vote , turnout is always down. It's hard to get them back to the polls.

[still_one]

8. Thanks. So there is no third party that can help us there I guess

[jcgoldie]

10. You are confusing ranked choice voting with a runoff election

Georgia doesn't have ranked choice like they do in Maine they have a runoff if noone gets to 50%.

[octoberlib]

16. My mistake. It's all so confusing.

[PAMod]

13. Wait. Only Maine does RCV. Georgia is a run-off state if no one gets over 50%, like Louisiana

That's what Ossof was talking about.

RCV requires only one election - you rank your top two (I think) and they go until someone gets over 50%

[BComplex]

27. My guess is Stacy Abrams would have something to do about that.

She's not going to let anybody stay home if there's a runoff in her state.

[atse]

15. Not likely

Unfortunately, I read at the 538 blog that the remaining votes aren't in heavily blue areas, and some are even in red counties. Collins' lead needs to go down a point or two. She's currently at 49.5%, which means she would only need to be the second choice on a small fraction of the third party voters's ranked choices to get over the top.

But hey, there is a general "blue drift" phenomenon where the ballots tallied late tend to lean Democrat. Maybe her lead will shrink. It ain't over till it's over.

[Baitball Blogger]

20. Bummer.

But, thank you. I think I've caught up.

[jcgoldie]

21. "blue drift"

Is based on the early vote being counted last in states that wouldn't allow it counted in advance. I do not know whats left to count in Maine but it would only help if it was mail in votes.

[Lucinda]

19. ...

[Roland99]

28. She's at 50.8% right now. up 8pts. Yet Biden is up 10pts! WTF, Maine?!

[AlexSFCA]

30. many repubs voted for biden but still gop down ballot

[AlexSFCA]

29. I can understand president polling discrepancy but why senate race is so off?