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Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:49 PM

 

Will Nevada hold?

If Nevada holds I think Joe Wins. But CNN reporting only an 8k lead.

Anyone have any insight to make me feel better?

12 replies, 1463 views

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Reply Will Nevada hold? (Original post)
SlogginThroughIt Nov 2020 OP
LexVegas Nov 2020 #1
Ananda62 Nov 2020 #5
Fiendish Thingy Nov 2020 #2
bigtree Nov 2020 #6
BlueInPhilly Nov 2020 #3
aaaaaa5a Nov 2020 #4
Alex4Martinez Nov 2020 #7
Jarqui Nov 2020 #8
Salviati Nov 2020 #9
SlogginThroughIt Nov 2020 #10
democrattotheend Nov 2020 #11
Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #12

Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:50 PM

1. Insight: PA and GA. nt

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Response to LexVegas (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:53 PM

5. Still counting

Clark and Washoe counties’ mail in ballots, which largely favors Ds. I know my Clark County ballot was received by the NV SOS but not yet counted.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:52 PM

2. Remaining NV ballots are mail in From heavily Dem Clark co. (Las Vegas) nt

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:54 PM

6. and Dems dominate mail-ins there

...

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:52 PM

4. Nevada will be fine.

The only vote left are mail ballots and absentee ballots. Both vote sets heavily favor Biden. Secondly, the majority of these votes are in Clark County. This is the blue stronghold of the state.

Nevada is looking good. Biden's lead will increase when the counting continues Thursday.

I am very happy right now.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:55 PM

7. Yes, goddammit.

It will be fine.

Go to the pages that show the numbers and hold good thoughts.

Jeebus.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:59 PM

8. Jon Ralston called it a couple of days before the election

based on early voting.

Trump's rumbled about some sort of a legal challenge but I find it hard to take it seriously.

I've looked over what is outstanding and don't see any path for Trump.
Biden's lead is going to grow.

The best legal argument I've heard so far would be for the mail-in ballots (mostly Democrat) held by the USPS against Judge Sullivan's orders in South Florida.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 01:59 PM

9. I'm no Nevada election expert...

... but if you just project the current county percentages out to 100%, trump will gain a net of about 3500 votes from the counties he's currently leading in, which isn't enough to take down the current lead, let alone the 10,700 vote margin Biden would expect to gain in the counties he's leading in.

Granted that's a super simplistic model and I'd probably put more trust into more sophisticated analysis of how the remaining votes are likely to break down, but I think in either case it still looks good for Biden

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 02:04 PM

10. You guys are fantastic!

 

Now Arizona should be good to go as well right?

So really we are talking about Michigan since it looks like Wisconsin is safe.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 02:04 PM

11. FWIW, Hillary only won it by about 25,000

It's a fairly small state, so 8,000 is not that small of a lead. It's definitely closer than I'd like, but it seems like all the election day in-person ballots have been counted, and what is left is mail ballots that arrived the last day, absentee ballots that were put in a drop box, and provisionals. And mostly in Clark County. I can't imagine that helps Trump much.

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Response to SlogginThroughIt (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 02:07 PM

12. Jon Ralston is the go to guy for everything NV dem politics..has been for yrs. he says we're good

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