My theory as to why the polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020.

[Quemado]

I'm not a statistician, or a pollster, or any kind of expert on polling. This is just my gut feeling/opinion.

As far as I know, a poll does not determine the honesty of a response. There's no requirement to give an honest response to a poll. There's no repercussion to lying to a poll. I think this is what caused the polls in 2016 and 2020 to be not totally accurate.

One of Trump's main characteristics is that he is a liar. His followers don't hold that against him. Trump uses lies to get his way. So, it may be safe to assume that Trump's followers believe lying is OK.

What's the benefit of lying to a poll? My theory is that a certain percentage of Trump supporters lied to the polls in the hope of skewing the results.

Why would they want to skew poll results? Not everyone, but a certain percentage of potential voters pay close attention to the polls.

For example, If you consider yourself a Biden supporter, and you follow the polls, and you see that Biden is up by (for example) 8 points in your state, you may think to yourself: "Biden is going to win my state; I don't need to vote." But that 8 point poll margin in favor of Biden is likely to be skewed because of lying on the part of Trump supporters. And, because of the skewed poll results, some potential voters don't vote because they think Biden is going to win their state.

[Dream Girl]

1. Of 1,000 people contacted and surveyed, how many would do this?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. That would be the Michael Moore theory...

... and it might be correct.

[DSandra]

3. I would like to know if there's any evidence that they have been saying it to each other...

They would be more clever than we think...

[mr_lebowski]

4. A simpler explanation is that someone who said they're voting for Trump ...

Was statistically just slightly more likely to follow through/mail in their ballot/show up on election day ... than someone who said they're voting Biden.

Trump has VERY adamant supporters.

Occam's Razor tells me that this is the more likely culprit.

Polls are of 'likely voters', but there's no measure of 'how likely' that's really reliable. Other than working backwards after the fact.

[LeftInTX]

7. True

I hear people say, "I voted for so and so"...



But, that person doesn't live in so and so's district..LOL..I hear this all the time. And these people are pretty hardcore voters. Not that this is a "poll", but people say interesting things and a "likely voter" can be slacker..and if someone who votes all the time doesn't know who is on the ballot, who knows what on earth a "likely voter" is...

I have a friend who calls me each election about a certain district that she thinks we both live in. She will ask me about the candidates etc. This happens every election like clockwork.

[TlalocW]

5. They might now even be considering how it could skew things

If contacted by the "wrong" media, a lot of republicans will lie to them just because of whom they are. They're the enemy. Why make their job easier?

TlalocW

[bullimiami]

6. My theory is that the polls have not been wrong. It's the votes. Between suppression and other

ratfuckery. I’ve watched them diverge since Cleland / Chambliss and have gotten steadily further apart.

[crickets]

8. Agreed and same here, from that very race. Max Cleland was robbed. GA was robbed.

I am so sick of it.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. Do pollsters usually hire actual people to call?

Or are they automated?

If they're actual people and if they're usually minorities, many racists will intentionally lie to them.