My summary as of 3:30 PM, 11/4/2020

[Towlie]

Based upon CNN data: Biden - 237, Trump - 213

AK - 186,154 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 63.8%, Trump needs 36.2%. Assume Trump wins 3 votes.
AZ - 444,199 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 39.5%, Trump needs 60.5%. Assume Biden wins 11 votes.
GA - 354,444 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 61.1%, Trump needs 38.9%. Assume Trump wins 16 votes.
MI - 334,378 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 44.3%, Trump needs 55.7%. Assume Biden wins 16 votes.
NV - 190,279 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 48.0%, Trump needs 52.0%. Assume Biden wins 6 votes.
NC - 283,553 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 63.5%, Trump needs 36.5%. Assume Trump wins 15 votes.
PA - 1,269,845 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 65.7%, Trump needs 34.3%. Assume Trump wins 20 votes.

Biden - 270, Trump - 267

[AlexSFCA]

1. perfect, I do believe biden will eventually win PA though

[angrychair]

2. Think you'll be off with GA

know that state pretty well and Fulton and Dekalb counties are the majority of the votes left and they heavily tilt toward Biden

[empedocles]

3. Do we need both AZ and NV?

[Towlie]

8. Here are the numbers:

Without Arizona it's Biden 259, Trump 278. Short 11 votes.
Without Nevada it's Biden 264, Trump 273. Short 6 votes.
Without both it's Biden 253, Trump 284. Short 17 votes.
Georgia is worth 16 votes and PA is worth 20 votes.

[Steelrolled]

5. This is my guess

Biden wins with exactly 270 - couldn't be closer.

[Hamlette]

6. matches 538s prediction from early this AM.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#NY:0,VT:0,NH:0,MA:0,RI:0,CT:0,NJ:0,DE:0,MD:0,VA:0,IL:0,WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,CO:0,NM:0,DC:0,WV:1,KY:1,IN:1,TN:1,SC:1,AL:1,MS:1,LA:1,AR:1,OK:1,KS:1,MO:1,NE:1,SD:1,ND:1,WY:1,ID:1,UT:1,N1:1,HI:0,MN:0,MT:1,IA:1,OH:1,FL:1,TX:1,N2:0,M2:1,ME:0,M1:0,AZ:0

[Towlie]

7. 10:57 AM, EST, 11/5/2020

Last edited Thu Nov 5, 2020, 11:57 AM - Edit history (2)

Updated, 10:57 AM EST, 11/5/2020:

Biden - 253
Trump - 214
AK - 87,492 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 79.4% , Trump needs 20.6% . Assume Trump wins 3 votes.
AZ - 401,841 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 41.5% , Trump needs 58.5% . Assume Biden wins 11 votes.
GA - 193,861 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 54.8% , Trump needs 45.2% . Assume Trump wins 16 votes.
NV - 163,640 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 47.7% , Trump needs 52.3% . Assume Biden wins 6 votes.
NC - 269,375 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 64.2% , Trump needs 35.8% . Assume Trump wins 15 votes.
PA - 568,183 uncounted votes. Of those, Biden needs 61.9% , Trump needs 38.1% . Assume Trump wins 20 votes.
Biden - 270
Trump - 268

[empedocles]

9. Oooh