Arizona was the big story this election. What caused such a big shift against Trump there?

[Quixote1818]

And can we expect AZ to start turning reliably blue like NM, CO and NV?

[mr_lebowski]

1. I would guess two main things ...

1) People moving in from California
2) Trump being such a dick to McCain

[Kali]

8. I don't know

seems like most of those Californians are repukes.

[mr_lebowski]

16. Not this one, Baby! nt

[Kali]

22. LOL

I always use hedge words

[sweetloukillbot]

17. Probably depends where...

Younger transplants in Maricopa and Pima are probably blue, older transplants in Yavapai are VERY red.

[Kali]

21. and those are the ones I was thinking of mostly

[AnyFunctioningAdult]

10. Exactly this

A ton of people are moving here from Washington and California. The love for McCain is also real here and a lot of otherwise Republicans had that as a reason to not support Trump. I had hoped his mom would have lived to see Trump lose, but sadly she died a few weeks ago (at 108!).

[Totally Tunsie]

14. His mom is watching. They're ALL watching!

[Wellstone ruled]

29. 3. Trump pissed off the

the Mormon's in Phoenix,Mesa,and Scottsdale. Those hard core Trumper's did not want to loose their Medical Insurance and be left naked facing Covid.

[mr_lebowski]

31. Yeah the Mormons have never much liked him ...

They, unlike most faux-Christians ... actually really believe in the Bible for reals. I mean they have their own book too, but ... Trump being a blatantly immoral, lying fuck really bothers a decent number of them.

[Wellstone ruled]

40. First thing Trump did was

try to blemish their Anointed one. You mess with those who are direct descendants of their Churches Founders,you will not be one of them.

The Romney slam did him more harm than he understood. Lived in Utah for 12 years,if you ain't one of them,you got to get out. We did and it was the best move ever.

[mr_lebowski]

43. True! Wasnt enough to cost him Utah, but it looks like it may've been enough to cost him AZ

Which ... may or may not matter in the end ... but it would be kinda awesome if it did cause it'd literally be the first time in my entire LIFE my Vote for POTUS actually mattered.

[demtenjeep]

33. kids in cages

should have hurt him the most

[msongs]

2. brutal attacks on dying john mccain soured him with repubs nt

[exboyfil]

3. I think Biden road on Kelly's coat tails some

A very attractive Senate candidate.

Also the McCain's have been blowtorching Trump in the state. We should thank them for that.

[tirebiter]

4. Over time

Being a bedroom community for LA has consequences.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. The McCains send their regards.

[Kali]

6. I think a lot of the wealthier repukes here are old style "normal"

and with the help of others of that persuasion rejected his disgustingness. doubt it will stay blue if normality returns to the party, but who knows? we are known to be contrary anyway.

[pwb]

7. John McCain?

.

[MarcA]

9. Healthcare issues concerning seniors and their families. Maybe Lean Blue. n/t

[IVoteDFL]

11. RIP Senator McCain

[AmericanCanuck]

12. John McCain's revenge

Trump insulted Arizona's favorite son and Cindy McCain and Megan McCain endorsed Biden.

[MLAA]

13. I've lived in Southern AZ for the majority of 35 years. I would add

McCain effect
Coattails of Kelly in part due to bit of Misogyny (Of course Kelly is an excellent candidate and McSally is beyond awful and a woman)
Will wait to see the breakouts but hoping younger voters kicked in as well.

Edit: just read article about strength of Latino vote in AZ. Hurray and tip of the hat to them!

[Windy City Charlie]

15. The ghost of John McCain

says hello

[Shermann]

27. Yes the Ghost of Elections Past paid Ebenezer Trump a visit

Bah humbug!

[malaise]

18. He fucked with John McCain

for starters

[sweetloukillbot]

19. High Mormon population that hates Trump possibly? nt

[Kali]

26. wish the ones down here did

[sweetloukillbot]

35. They were doing a lot of Mormon outreach, and it sounded like it was meeting resistance

They may not have gone for Biden, but if they didn't vote for Trump, that would be a net in Biden's favor.

[FreeState]

20. Mormon Women despise Trump

436,521 Members of record there. I’m sure there was a shift of 80k there too.

[Vivienne235729]

42. Do they really? I can't tell. I believe it but then UT stayed red so that baffles me

[FreeState]

45. Utah Mormons are a whole different social reality

Mormons outside of Utah tend to be much more liberal despite being GOP.

[oswaldactedalone]

23. Hispanics taking revenge on

Joe Arpaio and Trump’s pardon of him.

[Mike 03]

24. It began with Kyrsten Sinema's victory over Martha McSally.

She led the entire way, as counting continued for five days.

Arizonans really care about health care, which we are sorely lacking especially in our rural areas.

This has been a few years in the making. Maricopa County is the key player and also Pima.

[Totally Tunsie]

25. Hey, tRump...

courtesy of John McCain

Didn't anyone tell you of the premise of "Don't speak ill of the dead"? BOOM!

[vsrazdem]

28. Trash taking Hispanics didn't help either.

[kurtcagle]

30. Scottsdale has become something of a tech hub as well,

so you are seeing more highly educated young people replacing the Baby Boomers of Sun City, especially as exorbitant housing prices and more work from home opportunities due to Covid make Arizona an attractive alternative for young tech professionals.

[dsc]

32. It is a variety of things

One is that it was a different type of GOP state, in that it was mostly older white suburban voters that were the bread and butter of the GOP vote there, and well, Trump hasn't helped that. They don't have as many rural white people as many other states so Trump couldn't run up the score in rural counties like he did in NC for example.

Two, is that he was such a total dick to McCain, who was well loved there, that had to have been unhelpful for him. I also think pardoning Arpaio which I am sure he thought would help him, instead hurt him.

Three, it has been trending blue for a while now. We have both Senate seats there with this last one being an easy win. We have a majority of the congressional delegation, and I think we won the secretary of state office there (which is their 2nd highest state office). In short, I think we will see more good things to come.

That area, the mountain west, is moving rather quickly toward us. We will win a majority of the EV this time, probably overwhelmingly. We won CO, NM, and probably AZ, NV while we will lose ID, MT, WY, ND, and SD. That would give an EV split of 29 to 17.

Both AZ and NV, though they are among the least urbanized by land area are among the most urbanized by percent of people who live in an urban area. Given how badly Trump is doing among suburban voters and urban voters, it isn't surprising it helped cost him AZ.

[sortasvenska7]

34. Lack of Leadership on Covid and changing demographics

Our state has been particularly hard hit by Covid and our governor ceded his leadership on Covid to Mayors and county boards of supervisors. Voters on all sides were also disgusted with Trump’s response and McSally aligning herself so closely to Trump cost her many votes. And thus, many Independents and Republicans voted for Biden and Kelly. Our state is unique in that a full third of registered voters are Independent and this time they went for Biden and Kelly. Also, grassroots organizations particularly geared towards getting out the vote on the Navajo Nation and groups like MiVota and Lucha focused on getting the LatinX vote out. We feel good here on the ground, that finally we may be reliably blue!

[SweetieD]

36. Californians moving to Arizona + Trump attacks on McCain

[Olafjoy]

37. My canvassing in Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale and Guadalupe

Showed a lot of women across the spectrum HATE Dumpster. Also I was overwhelmed by the amount of Hispanic voting and engagement. Legalizing pot was on the ballot too so I was seeing a lot of young people vote. We knocked on one door and two guys kind of came falling out of the apartment trailed by smoke and a strong smell of marijuana
A la Jeff Spicolli in “Fast Times at Ridgemont High”. “Hell yeah we voted” they told my friend and me.

[CottonBear]

44. LOL! I didn't have a "Fast Times at Ridgemont High" canvassing experience here in GA...

...but I did have a lengthy and in-depth discussion with a middle aged black guy who had been in prison.

We talked about our local Hispanic woman Democratic DA candidate (she’s in a runoff!) who wants to eliminate cash bail, the school to prison pipeline, the importance of our Democratic candidate for Sheriff (he won!), how wrong it is to have a private prison industry, and many other matters. He took a bunch of door cards for his friends at work!

I love getting out and talking to real people in real life!

[tenderfoot]

38. Bashing McCain

eom

[AngryOldDem]

39. 1) Treatment of immigrants. 2) Bashing John McCain after he died.

I read a blog of a friend and former coworker who writes on Arizona politics, and he is cautiously optimistic about the state going blue. Time will tell.

[displacedtexan]

41. Never underestimate the power of...

...an astronaut.