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Alhena

(3,075 posts) Wed Nov 4, 2020, 05:28 PM Nov 2020

Biden still 82 in Arizona on Predictit- was Nate Silver too pessimistic?

Nate made it sound like it could go either way, but these betting guys are usually well informed.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5596/Which-party-will-win-Arizona-in-the-2020-presidential-election

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3 replies

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Biden still 82 in Arizona on Predictit- was Nate Silver too pessimistic? (Original Post) Alhena Nov 2020 OP

Yes he was Fahrenthold451 Nov 2020 #1

I don't read him saying that qazplm135 Nov 2020 #2

Nate is out of his depth here. marylandblue Nov 2020 #3

Fahrenthold451

(436 posts)

1. Yes he was

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 05:30 PM

Nov 2020

But the count is going to get close I think. Around 10k for B

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qazplm135

(7,654 posts)

2. I don't read him saying that

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 05:31 PM

Nov 2020

He said he thinks it will ultimately go to Biden but understandably wants to see at least some of the remaining vote to be sure it isn't super pro Trump.

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marylandblue

(12,344 posts)

3. Nate is out of his depth here.

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 05:31 PM

Nov 2020

He is a number cruncher. But the numbers don't exist, so he's just taking an informed guess. He has a point, but no way to tell for sure. That's why predictit is 82 not 99.

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