Trump's margin in PA is under 200K now (195,953) - detailed breakdown

[Statistical]

So I was curious not just what the gap is but how fast is is closing and how are these votes breaking for Biden. So I recorded the results 30 minutes ago and then again now. If I get a chance I will update this again like after an hour to see if the trends still hold

30 minutes ago (8:00 PM)
Counted: 6,196,977
Trump's lead: 203,781

Currently in PA (8:30 PM)
Counted: 6,180,761
Trump's lead: 195,953

Change
Counted: +16,216
Trump's lead: -7,828

So they are counting about 32K ballots per hour. Due to the 2.87 : 1 split in votes, Trump's lead is falling by about 15K votes per hour.

The state is reporting 88% of votes counted meaning there are 845,042 ballots to still count. If the rate of counting remains the same and they work 24 hours a day they will finish in about 52 hours. Ballots received after election day will increase that slightly but probably not by much. Once again if the split remains roughly the same then Biden should surpass Trump in about 25 hours.

If (and yes this is a big if) the rest of the ballots break at the same ratio (2.87 : 1) that would be a net pickup for Biden of +407,929 votes. That erases Trump's remaining lead and puts Biden up about 200,000 votes when everything is counted.

[Farmgirl1961]

1. Thanks for the update!

Can I ask where you are getting this information? Is it the PA SOS?

[Statistical]

7. I get it from NYT because their layout makes it easier to spot updates and copy and paste

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html

however it is the same data on the PA election website

[Salviati]

2. So he has been running at 74% of that sample counted, but he could dip as low as 62% in the rest...

and still come out on top.

Not in the bag, but looking good.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. As a note, the 5 county Philly metro area have been counting 24/7

some are going slower than others but they are working through it. Philly bought a bunch of high-speed scanners and have been able to process about 10,000 ballots/hour. Where votes might come from here in the SE aside from Philly is Montgomery County and Delaware County, with some from Chester County and some from Bucks County (which is more reddish/purplish and activist GOP although voting blue for President by small margins).

[Locrian]

4. what does this mean?

Are the votes biden is gaining an illusion due to the higher count rate?

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Not illusion

it's timing since people are so impatient! The state had something like 3 million mail-in ballots sent out and 2.5 million sent back and I think they are down to about 1 million or so left to count. Philly had something like 400K of them to work through and are about halfway through them. They wanted to get it all done by Friday counting 24/7 and appear to be on track with that... but people want results "now".

[Drahthaardogs]

5. If I can add some information

Democrats returned right at 1.6 million early votes!

Republicans returned about 550,000.

The ratio WILL hold

[Baltimike]

8. thank you for this. nt

[honest.abe]

9. Nice work!

I think we got this!