I am nervous about Arizona.

[Drunken Irishman]

If Trump wins the outstanding ballots in Maricopa County like he did with this last batch, he might be on pace to actually win the state. It's still a slight uphill climb but that really puts a lot of pressure on Biden to win Nevada + either Pennsylvania or Georgia.

If he loses Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona, but wins Georgia, we have an exact tie: 269-269, unless Biden can somehow flip the 2nd Congressional District Trump is winning in Maine right now.

If he wins Nevada, but loses Arizona, he will need either Georgia or Pennsylvania.

If he wins Nevada and Arizona, he won't need either Georgia or Pennsylvania.

The good news is that he leads in Nevada and I suspect he'll carry it. But that requires him to win one more state.

I am sure Pennsylvania looks good ... but I wish they'd hurry with their counting. I'd feel a whole lot better right now if PA was called because that would give Biden the win.

[Proud liberal 80]

1. but there are still other counties

Like Pima

[oswaldactedalone]

3. Delete

[Proud liberal 80]

7. what are you looking at?

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/arizona/president

[marybourg]

33. The site above says 91%

But I learned yesterday that that doesn’t usually include provisionals, military and possibly other types of special situations that come in separately.

[kwolf68]

2. YEP

Biden could get 300Evs or he could lose the election. I think Republicans believe they are getting Arizona, they haven't tried any chicanery there yet. PA is their last ditch hope. trump wins AZ and GA, disenfranchise PA and Trump wins the election.

[Dem2]

4. Feeling the same.

This tweet made me a little more comfortable, but there's still unknown

Link to tweet

[regnaD kciN]

17. BUT...

...while 46K are from Pima, 31K are from other counties that I would assume are deep red. If we postulate that all the Pima votes go to Biden, and all the other counties go to Trump (it won't happen either way, but that's the best way I can think of dealing with the disparity), Trump would need a little under 60%-40% in the remaining Maricopa vote to draw even.

[regnaD kciN]

5. Same here...

...I'm relying on some analysts that believe that, even with the current trend, Biden will still win AZ by about 29K votes, but I'm a whole lot less confident about it than I was a few hours ago.

[Farmgirl1961]

6. I am feeling a little unsettled by Arizona as well... n/t

[Grown2Hate]

8. 100% my feelings. That vote drop on AZ (my home

state) at 7pm was a GUT punch. I hope there is MORE outstanding vote in Pima County (bluer than Maricopa) in the rest of the ballots; that would help us hold on. My fucking heart can't take this.

[Pisces]

9. He won by 5 pts. Pima county even higher for Biden and Coconino He's winning

[bdamomma]

28. Have these

votes come in from Pima?

[Pisces]

36. No

[jcgoldie]

10. Win PA...

...
profit.

[Quixote1818]

11. Someone tweeted these numbers. What do you make of it?

340,000 in Maricopa (52/47)
- 46,000 in Pima (59/38)
- 17-18,000 in Yuma (46/53)
- 13,000 in Coconino (63/35)

Link to tweet

-

[roamer65]

35. The Pima and Coconino votes will bump Biden back up.

[StarryNite]

38. I hadn't heard anyone mention Coconino still having ballots to count.

Knowing there are still that many uncounted in Coconino makes me feel a little better. But it could still go either way.

[roamer65]

40. 13,000 in Coconino and 46000 in Pima.

[StarryNite]

43. I think Pima will just even out the other counties favoring tRump.

[BootinUp]

12. dont have to have but it does look the shakiest to me. nt

[Prince99]

13. Pima considerable amount

Just watched SoS on CNN and they did around the horn of counties and the red you see on the map is basically down to less than 1,000 to hundreds so no big pick-ups. I think Dump Maricopa gains will be buffered by Pima gains for Biden. We got this!

[cry baby]

14. Nervously watching, also.

[kitron]

15. That last 74k batch dropped our lead by 12K

I don't feel that we can keep the lead if it keeps dropping at the same rate in the next batch.

[StClone]

16. If you find any comfort in it

The last batch dump by most accounts was a high-end aberration, and it is very unlikely the remaining early mail-in % will exceed the needed 55%. There is one big R county left to count and one big Dem county left which will likely be a wash. It is just not very likely for Trump to win, and I will take those odds.

[kwolf68]

22. Why?

I see no evidence that statement can be based in fact. Dump got 59% in Maricopa County, there are still 300K + votes left there to count. Hell, the Dolt could win a HIGHER percentage. Yes the one Dem county won't go that high, but who the hell knows otherwise.

[StClone]

25. Relating what the guy on MSNBC just reported from Arizona

[StarryNite]

39. I think those of us who live in AZ have a different perspective.

Arizona is an oddity in so many different ways. It makes it more difficult to predict these things.

[AngryOldDem]

18. I so agree

I had to make a quick trip before the first AZ data dump, but I left pretty confident it would confirm Biden’s lead. Now I have a knot in the pit of my stomach. I was seeing AZ as a cushion that wouldn’t make PA as crucial. AZ + NV = win. Other states will be gravy.

This is excruciating. If I heard right, the next update will be around 1 am EST. Will this be the definitive sign, or will this also go well into Thursday? I’m nervous about GA as well.

[redstateblues]

19. Need some good news! I'm worrying big time

[fishwax]

20. apparently the next bucket of AZ votes will be mail-in ballots dropped off ON election day

which might favor Biden because, starting on Tuesday the week before election day, democrats (along with MSNBC, etc.) really started pushing the message of it being too late to mail, so you should take your ballot personally instead.

The batch that dropped at 9 PM Eastern Time (of which Trump won about 59%) was apparently the mail-in ballots received on the weekend and Monday, so might be expected to skew a bit heavier towards trump because it could involve ignoring those last week admonitions against mailing the ballot so close to the deadline.

It's a theory, anyway. I don't have a link for it, but on MSNBC that's what Steve Kornacki said the different buckets of ballots were.

[Prince99]

26. Correct!

SoS on CNN broke down remaining counties. Down side is she said it would be likely Friday when we reach 99-100% reporting. Geez.

[bigtree]

21. just hang tight on what's coming up.

...Biden will still get a good share of those votes, I think ending up around 40 to 20k ahead.

If he wins Pa. he doesn't need Az or Nevada, although Nevada votes left are definitely chock full of Biden votes.

[radius777]

23. As long as we win PA then we win w/273 EV,

even if we lose NV/AZ/GA.




If we were to lose both AZ and PA, we could win with GA (which is possible but an outside shot) and NV.

[regnaD kciN]

27. Yes, but...

...while people are expressing confidence about PA, I still see Trump with a ~200K vote lead there and I'm not sure there are enough ballots outstanding for Biden to catch up without winning about 80% of them.

[mvd]

31. People are saying he needs less than 80%

More around 70%, which he has been meeting easily.

[PTWB]

32. Everyone says Biden is pulling a % well ahead of what he needs to close that gap.

[Marius25]

42. There are over 800k ballots left

almost all mail in ballots from Philly where Biden is winning 78% of them.

Dave Wasserman said it's very unlikely Trump can win PA.

[Tommymac]

52. Per Experienced Democratic Leaders here in PA the splits...

on the unreported but counted votes are running 80-20, 90-10 Joe in some precincts. This comes from the local precinct officials. This is happening across the State - in the mail ins Jo is winning heavily in the ballots already counted but not reported.

I think ex Governor Ed Rendell is saying Joe is going to win by 100,000.

Don't worry. Be Happy.

We Got Pennsylvania.

I live in Allegheny County - This Is My House.

Source: MSNBC On-Air interviews with Penna Democratic Party and/or State officials.

Also - Allegheny (Pittsburgh) County and Philadelphia County votes are supposed to dump sometime later tonight. The Red Counties may take another 24-48 hours. Per Penna Sec of State.

[bdamomma]

24. me too anxious

but there are other counties which need to be counted in Arizona.

[PTWB]

29. It was ridiculous for this to get called so early.

With as conservative as the AP is I am not sure what they’re seeing that no one else is. (Well, Fox too but they’ve taken a lot of heat for it).

[qazplm135]

30. we need to see another dump or two

to be nervous.

It could easily be that the next dump is tied or barely Trump or even pro Biden.

We just don't know.

[bdamomma]

34. I hope Biden

takes Nevada and Arizona, but I just want him to win.

If this was based on the popular vote Joe would be winner!!! EC must go......sigh

[Thekaspervote]

37. This

Link to tweet

?s=21

Couldn’t find the other tweet by this guy, but he said that he thought at the rate AZ is going Biden would win with about 29k

[Thekaspervote]

41. If you read Jon Ralston's twitter feed he's confident NV will go to the Dems

Link to tweet

?s=21

Of course this twitter comment was on Biden having won AZ. But it is a tongue in cheek that the Dems have NV

Link to tweet

?s=21

Remember Nv is not that populous of state 12,000 is a fine lead

[Drunken Irishman]

44. I think so too. I just wish PA would catch up already.

[radius777]

46. NV doesn't matter unless we also get AZ or GA.

PA alone would do it for us.

[Azathoth]

45. This thing ain't won yet

I think a lot of us assumed when Fox called AZ the numbers were a lot more definitive. Right now, AZ is looking like a true tossup, and NV is going to be razor thin as well.

GA isn't going to happen. It's going to be heartbreakingly close, and I'll be the first to buy everyone a beer if we pull it off, but I just don't see it happening. We've seen this story before there.

And PA... 200K votes is still a *long* way to go, even if the trends are on our side. It's just not a safe bet to assume anything until the votes are in hand, especially in an election year that has thrown out nearly all commonly accepted wisdom.

[Drunken Irishman]

47. Luckily, I typically will defer to experts.

Which does make me feel better on the whole. For starters, the AP and FOX still haven't retracted their Arizona call, so, they still must think Biden is going to win it and the AP especially is pretty dang conservative when it comes to these types of calls. I'll take that over my gut or any feeling I have, which is why I'm not in full-on panic mode.

As for Georgia? I wish I could have your insight to say one way or another whether it's going Biden or not. Frankly, I do not know. I've looked at the outstanding ballots, and how Biden is performing, and the numbers are there but that's about the extent of what I feel comfortable doing. What I do know is that a lot smarter people than me who do this for a living, and are familiar with Georgia, believe Biden is going to win it...so, who am I to say they're wrong, again, based on my gut?

And it's the same with Pennsylvania.

My angst is solely tied to the fact these states haven't been called. That is all. Even if I think Biden probably will win, until they're called, I'm going to be a bit nervous - or at least until Arizona and Nevada are locked down (or PA).

[Azathoth]

50. The experts change with each data dump. They're making educated guesses

AZ has already moved from "almost certainly Biden" to "maybe leans Biden" on many of their cheat sheets. Silver now has Trump needing a 59/41 split to win -- and he got exactly that in the 9pm dump.

In the case of Fox and AZ, I think they're sticking to their guns because that's the way that organization rolls: the worst thing anyone there can do is show weakness by admitting a mistake. They jumped the gun, but since it's a 50/50 toss-up right now, they're calling instead of folding. (And as I recall, their lead analyst is a NY Democrat, so he's probably double afraid of showing weakness in that hellshop).

I've got nothing to base my GA prediction on other than my gut, Trump's performance in the rest of the sunbelt, and the fact that we've come close in GA before and been crushed at the very end, including 2018.

And PA... well, models and trends ultimately mean nothing until the votes are in hand.

[Drunken Irishman]

51. Hey, you do you.

I'm not going to complain.

But I think I am humble enough to admit that some of this stuff is likely out of my wheelhouse. The AP? They clearly aren't ready to pull back on the Arizona call. Are they right? I don't know - no one does. But I've got to think they have a lot of people poring over the results to see what trends are out there and what needs to happen and what is happening and how likely it is to happen and they, as of now, still feel comfortable. Nate? He's one guy, who's going off data that is publicly out there. I'd wager his math is probably less connected than the math of any decision desk who makes a call.

Everything else is gut and I'm not gonna go with my gut on Georgia. If enough people who know Georgia think Biden has a really good chance of taking it, I'm going to believe 'em - and I'll say the same about PA.

[herding cats]

53. I feel strong about PA, not about Arizona.

Which means little more than the metrics in Arizona are more delicate.

I've no faith in NC, and Georgia is a complete surprise to me. Albeit a pleasant possibility.

We're on good ground at this moment. But, I do share your anxiety.

[Drunken Irishman]

54. Arizona has another update coming soon and that might make it clearer.

[herding cats]

55. Yes, I'm eagerly awaiting it.

We shall see what they release and what we can make of it after the fact.

[Polybius]

48. You didn't mention North Carolina

That's still in play.

[Raine]

49. I am too. 😑 nt