Updated-on-the-fly MINIMUM splits needed for remaining ballots to be counted (GA, AZ, PA)

[Roland99]

Last edited Fri Nov 6, 2020, 01:09 AM - Edit history (6)

Link to tweet

Still a chance for another runoff for GA-SEN and AZ we cannot afford more than 58% to trump for remaining ballots

GA we need an aggressive 58% for Biden for remaining ballots



Based on these links:

GA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html

AZ
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

PA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc




EDIT: 11/6/2020 12:09am - just updated the image above

[Polybius]

1. So there's a chance Trump wins all 3?

I thought he was likely losing at least 2 out of 3.

[Roland99]

2. it's all down to the splits. Biden could take all 3, or only 2, or only 1, or maybe none

Altho I think PA is the best chance. I've heard the splits are coming in WAY above the minimum I've used (like 80/20)

[regnaD kciN]

4. Yes, Biden won today's PA splits by 75/25...

...however, there's no guarantee the remaining ballots will be anywhere near that.

[regnaD kciN]

3. There is very definitely a chance he wins...

Not a particularly huge chance, but a chance nonetheless.

[lagomorph777]

13. "a chance" and "likely losing" are not opposite statements.

Trump is likely losing, but his chance of winning is not yet mathematically zero.

Also, my chance of being hit by a bus is not mathematically zero, even though I am sitting in my kitchen, 200 feet from any bus route.

[Renew Deal]

5. Biden won the last batch in GA since that was posted 75-25

Currently
Trump 2,426,877
Biden 2,395,129

If the 75% pace keeps up, Biden will win by around 50,000 votes. But I saw a number a little while ago saying there were only 100,000 votes left. We'll see.

[Roland99]

6. Explains my updated table...Est Final is +9,371 votes vs 7,793 from above

[LeftInTX]

7. I have

Trump 2,427,250 49.7

Biden 2,395,944 49.1

It's been sitting at 49.7 to 49.1 for about an hour now. The spread is Trump: 31,306

[Renew Deal]

8. A Biden 67.5% batch

Still above where he needs to be.

[Roland99]

9. I just updated. From overnight, Biden got another 18,055 votes. trump got 4,847. Other got 371

That's a 77.6/20.8/.02 split!

2,413,184 2,431,724 61230
18,055 4,847 371
0.77579169 0.208267091 0.015941219

Oh...that's for GA

[Roland99]

10. For AZ...we're on the hairy edge of acceptability...

trump canNOT keep gaining over 57% of remaining votes

From overnight, he got 57.9%

1,469,341 1,400,951 40385
25,128 35,911 963
0.405277249 0.579190994 0.015531757

[Roland99]

11. For GA-SEN - Perdue is down to an even 50.0! And signs are looking good!

73.2% of overnight vote went to Ossof

2,318,558 2,435,653 113421
16,529 5,481 574
0.731889834 0.242693943 0.025416224

[lagomorph777]

14. Get him to 49.9 and we are still in the race (runoff).

[Roland99]

12. CNN reporter stating GA SOS says only about 50k votes left. That's not good

Considering the *current* NYT/Yahoo site totals are still a 19k trump lead

Biden would need at least about 70% of the remaining ballots

[honest.abe]

15. Yeah, that's how I see it also.

However, it seems that SOS isnt really clear on how many are left. Earlier it was 25,000 now 50,000.

[Roland99]

16. WSB-TV reporting 50,000-60,000 so who the hell knows?!

And is that with or without provisionals?

[Roland99]

29. #BREAKING - GA SOS says approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding

#BREAKING: In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 12:45 p.m. today there are approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding

[Roland99]

17. PA update! YES! 83% of new batch of votes!

Biden: 3,078,666
trump: 3,221,132
Other: 81,543

New Biden: 27,111
New trump: 5,163
New Other: 359

% New Biden: 83.0784788%
% New trump: 15.8214078%
% New Other: 01.1001134%

[Roland99]

25. 87.79% of a new batch of 27,000 votes!

PA
Biden: 3,111,764
trump: 3,227,988
Other: 81,924

New Biden: 23,362
New trump: 3,884
New Other: -635

% New Biden: 87.79%
% New trump: 14.60%
% New Other: -2.39%


Looked like some Other went away. that was odd

[Roland99]

32. 20,620 more votes. Net 7,450 for Biden. Overall lead down to 109k

Biden: 3,125,737
trump: 3,234,509
Other: 82,050

New Biden: 13,973
New trump: 6,521
New Other: 126

% New Biden: 67.76%
% New trump: 31.63%
% New Other: .61%

[Roland99]

46. Another 20k votes. Deficit down to 98k!

PA
Biden: 3,142,414
trump: 3,240,314
Other: 80,638

New Biden: 14,896
New trump: 4,204
New Other: 108

% New Biden: 77.55%
% New trump: 21.88%
% New Other: .56%

[Roland99]

50. Another 10k votes. Another 75%. Difference down to 90k!

PA
Biden: 3,157,266
trump: 3,247,808
Other: 82,813

New Biden: 7,222
New trump: 2,245
New Other: 71

% New Biden: 75.72%
% New trump: 23.54%
% New Other: .74%

Diff: 90,542

[Roland99]

52. Another 37k votes. 65% for Biden. Hopefully this was a bunch of red precincts

PA
Biden: 3,181,740
trump: 3,260,054
Other: 83,284

New Biden: 24,474
New trump: 12,246
New Other: 471

% New Biden: 65.80%
% New trump: 32.93%
% New Other: 1.27%

Diff: 78,314

[Roland99]

55. Another 11k gain for Biden! Diff down to 64,266!

PA
Biden: 3,199,729
trump: 3,263,995
Other: 83,613

New Biden: 14,360
New trump: 3,199
New Other: -121

% New Biden: 82.35%
% New trump: 18.34%
% New Other: -.69%

Diff: -64,266

[Roland99]

59. Another 21k votes and diff is less than 50k!

PA
Biden: 3,224,935
trump: 3,273,789
Other: 84456

New Biden: 15,364
New trump: 5,932
New Other: 188

% New Biden: 71.51%
% New trump: 27.61%
% New Other: 0.88%

Diff: -48,854

[Roland99]

62. Another 10k in votes. Another 76% split for Biden! Difference down to 36,572

PA
Biden: 3,243,736
trump: 3,280,308
Other: 84763

New Biden: 7,960
New trump: 2,390
New Other: 127

% New Biden: 75.98%
% New trump: 22.81%
% New Other: 1.21%

Diff: -36,572

[Roland99]

63. fast and furious! Down to 26k difference!

PA
Biden: 3,255,729
trump: 3,282,048
Other: 84939

New Biden: 19,953
New trump: 4,130
New Other: 303

% New Biden: 81.82%
% New trump: 16.94%
% New Other: 01.24%

Diff: -26,319

[Roland99]

18. GA - details of remaining ballots by county

61k votes are outstanding in Georgia.
17,157 from Chatham;
11,200 from Fulton;
7,338 from Gwinnett;
4,713 from Forsyth;
3,641 from Harris;
1,797 from Laurens;
1,552 from Putnam;
1,202 from Sumter;
700 from Cobb

Link to tweet

Overall in 2016:
Chatham was 55.7 Clinton; 41.2 trump
Fulton was 69.2 Clinton; 27.1 trump
Gwinnett was 51.0 Clinton; 45.2 trump

So if these are all the early mailed-in ballots, the %s should be much higher than overall

[Roland99]

22. new batch details! 74.58% for Biden! Deficit down to 15,200!

GA
Biden: 2,419,435
trump: 2,434,292
Other: 61,374
New Biden: 5,469
New trump: 1,740
New Other: 124

% New Biden: 74.58%
% New trump: 23.73%
% New Other: 1.69%

[Roland99]

33. Another 9,700 ballots. Biden only got 59.55% of them. Overall deficit down to 12,700

Biden: 2,425,417
trump: 2,438,181
Other: 61,508

[Roland99]

49. Deficit under 10k! 9,525! Another 74% for Biden! ... FYI Chatham county not completed til Fri.

Biden: 2,430,153
trump: 2,439,678
Other: 61,650

New Biden: 4,736
New trump: 1,497
New Other: 142

% New Biden: 74.29%
% New trump: 23.48%
% New Other: 2.22%

[Roland99]

53. Big cut in the difference! Down to 3,635! I believe this was Chatham county (Savannah)

GA
Biden: 2,441,904
trump: 2,445,539
Other: 61,996

New Biden: 11,405
New trump: 5,614
New Other: 337

% New Biden: 65.71%
% New trump: 32.34%
% New Other: 1.94%

Diff: -3,635

[Roland99]

56. 0.1pt difference now! 3,486 vote difference!

GA
Biden: 2,443,364
trump: 2,446,850
Other: 62,056

New Biden: 12,865
New trump: 6,925
New Other: 397

% New Biden: 63.73%
% New trump: 34.30%
% New Other: 1.97%

Diff: -3,486

[Roland99]

61. Under 2,500 vote difference! 86% of latest batch of 1,300 votes. Less than 12k votes left (estimate)

GA
Biden: 2,444,518
trump: 2,447,015
Other: 62074

New Biden: 1,154
New trump: 165
New Other: 18

% New Biden: 86.31%
% New trump: 12.34%
% New Other: 1.35%

Diff: -2,497

[Mike 03]

19. KICKING. Great thread

[bdamomma]

20. Have

Atlanta votes been counted yet?? Also not to sound ignorant what is "a split vote?"

[Roland99]

21. "splits" refers to the % of Dem vs Rep in the remaining number of votes

[brettdale]

23. kick

Kick

[Roland99]

24. GA-SEN - ALMOST under 50%! Next update will probably be under!!

GA-SEN
Ossoff: 47.67%
Perdue: 50.00%

[Roland99]

27. Perdue UNDER 50% per NYT!!

GA-SEN
Ossoff: 2,325,924 47.674%
Perdue: 2,439,265 49.997%

[Roland99]

30. Perdue still dropping. Now with 97% in

Ossoff: 47.680%
Perdue: 49.991%

[Roland99]

34. Perdue still dropping! Down to 49.968%

Ossoff: 47.702%
Perdue: 49.968%

[Roland99]

48. Run-off pretty much guaranteed now!

Ossoff: 47.731%
Perdue: 49.938%

[Roland99]

26. NV update! 14,000 votes

NV
Biden: 597,353
trump: 585,311
Other: 24,580

New Biden: 9,101
New trump: 4,706
New Other: 522

% New Biden: 63.51%
% New trump: 32.84%
% New Other: 3.64%

[yellowcanine]

28. Nevada is moving in the right direction! Hang unto Arizona and Joe has 270.

[coti]

35. Many of those numbers are very old at this point, particularly PA

[Roland99]

36. I'm posting updates downthread. Created a few branches up there

haven't updated the tweet in a bit. I'll try and do that every few hours. Not worth a new tweet every 10 min

[coti]

37. PA's numbers changed dramatically after PA SoS

outstanding ballots numbers had to be corrected by CNN. Went from 550k outstanding to 370k outstanding, completely screwed the math. If Biden gets 80% in the roughly 100K+ Philly area, he'll need at least 60% in the rest of the state to tie.

[coti]

38. Very angry at PA SoS for that foulup nt

[Blaukraut]

39. So we're NOT going to win PA?? n/t

[coti]

40. It's not out of the question but I don't feel as good about it

as earlier this morning

[Roland99]

41. Oh FFS!

Ugh

[Roland99]

42. Wait. What's this??

Link to tweet

550k remaining statewide. the PA SoS said in on CNN about 30 minutes ago

[Roland99]

43. And

Link to tweet

[coti]

44. Yeah, CNN spent the half hour after she went on TV

confirming that she was wrong and it was actually 370k. She fucked up big time.

[coti]

45. 369,364 was the number they came up with

Wolf JUST used the 370k figure

[Roland99]

47. :(

[Roland99]

51. AZ - 5,300 more votes just posted, pretty evenly split. Great news. Only need a 42/58 split to win

AZ
Biden: 1,473,176
trump: 1,405,078
Other: 40,585

New Biden: 2,616
New trump: 2,647
New Other: 147

% New Biden: 48.35%
% New trump: 48.93%
% New Other: 2.71%

Diff: 68,098

[Roland99]

54. ouch. trump cuts another 3,700 into the lead

AZ
Biden: 1,476,693
trump: 1,415,224
Other: 40,757

New Biden: 1,013
New trump: 4,723
New Other: 97

% New Biden: 17.37%
% New trump: 80.97%
% New Other: 1.66%

Diff: 61,469

[Roland99]

57. Another 2,500 hit to the lead.

AZ
Biden: 1,478,720
trump: 1,419,767
Other: 40,979

New Biden: 2,027
New trump: 4,543
New Other: 222

% New Biden: 29.84%
% New trump: 66.89%
% New Other: 3.27%

Diff: 58,953

[Roland99]

58. ok...another 2,500 votes and a 1,300 addition to the lead!

AZ
Biden: 1,496,142
trump: 1,438,298
Other: 41,845

New Biden: 1,879
New trump: 582
New Other: 24

% New Biden: 75.61%
% New trump: 23.42%
% New Other: 0.97%

Diff: 57,844

[Roland99]

60. BIG (85k) dump. Lead down to 46,257 but Split % wasn't toooo bad

AZ
Biden: 1,528,319
trump: 1,482,062
Other: 43175

New Biden: 31,700
New trump: 42,276
New Other: 1,338

% New Biden: 42.09%
% New trump: 56.13%
% New Other: 1.78%

Diff: 46,257

[Roland99]

64. Over 5k new votes. Biden takes over 51% of them. building up the wall again!

AZ
Biden: 1,532,062
trump: 1,485,010
Other: 43377

New Biden: 2,953
New trump: 2,568
New Other: 192

% New Biden: 51.69
% New trump: 44.95%
% New Other: 3.36%

Diff: 47,052