General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUpdated-on-the-fly MINIMUM splits needed for remaining ballots to be counted (GA, AZ, PA)
Last edited Fri Nov 6, 2020, 01:09 AM - Edit history (6)
Link to tweet
Still a chance for another runoff for GA-SEN and AZ we cannot afford more than 58% to trump for remaining ballots
GA we need an aggressive 58% for Biden for remaining ballots
Based on these links:
GA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html
AZ
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
PA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
EDIT: 11/6/2020 12:09am - just updated the image above
Polybius
(15,331 posts)I thought he was likely losing at least 2 out of 3.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Altho I think PA is the best chance. I've heard the splits are coming in WAY above the minimum I've used (like 80/20)
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...however, there's no guarantee the remaining ballots will be anywhere near that.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Not a particularly huge chance, but a chance nonetheless.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Trump is likely losing, but his chance of winning is not yet mathematically zero.
Also, my chance of being hit by a bus is not mathematically zero, even though I am sitting in my kitchen, 200 feet from any bus route.
Renew Deal
(81,844 posts)Currently
Trump 2,426,877
Biden 2,395,129
If the 75% pace keeps up, Biden will win by around 50,000 votes. But I saw a number a little while ago saying there were only 100,000 votes left. We'll see.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Trump 2,427,250 49.7
Biden 2,395,944 49.1
It's been sitting at 49.7 to 49.1 for about an hour now. The spread is Trump: 31,306
Renew Deal
(81,844 posts)Still above where he needs to be.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)That's a 77.6/20.8/.02 split!
2,413,184 2,431,724 61230
18,055 4,847 371
0.77579169 0.208267091 0.015941219
Oh...that's for GA
Roland99
(53,342 posts)trump canNOT keep gaining over 57% of remaining votes
From overnight, he got 57.9%
1,469,341 1,400,951 40385
25,128 35,911 963
0.405277249 0.579190994 0.015531757
Roland99
(53,342 posts)73.2% of overnight vote went to Ossof
2,318,558 2,435,653 113421
16,529 5,481 574
0.731889834 0.242693943 0.025416224
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)Considering the *current* NYT/Yahoo site totals are still a 19k trump lead
Biden would need at least about 70% of the remaining ballots
honest.abe
(8,610 posts)However, it seems that SOS isnt really clear on how many are left. Earlier it was 25,000 now 50,000.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)And is that with or without provisionals?
Roland99
(53,342 posts)#BREAKING: In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 12:45 p.m. today there are approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Biden: 3,078,666
trump: 3,221,132
Other: 81,543
New Biden: 27,111
New trump: 5,163
New Other: 359
% New Biden: 83.0784788%
% New trump: 15.8214078%
% New Other: 01.1001134%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,111,764
trump: 3,227,988
Other: 81,924
New Biden: 23,362
New trump: 3,884
New Other: -635
% New Biden: 87.79%
% New trump: 14.60%
% New Other: -2.39%
Looked like some Other went away. that was odd
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Biden: 3,125,737
trump: 3,234,509
Other: 82,050
New Biden: 13,973
New trump: 6,521
New Other: 126
% New Biden: 67.76%
% New trump: 31.63%
% New Other: .61%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,142,414
trump: 3,240,314
Other: 80,638
New Biden: 14,896
New trump: 4,204
New Other: 108
% New Biden: 77.55%
% New trump: 21.88%
% New Other: .56%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,157,266
trump: 3,247,808
Other: 82,813
New Biden: 7,222
New trump: 2,245
New Other: 71
% New Biden: 75.72%
% New trump: 23.54%
% New Other: .74%
Diff: 90,542
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,181,740
trump: 3,260,054
Other: 83,284
New Biden: 24,474
New trump: 12,246
New Other: 471
% New Biden: 65.80%
% New trump: 32.93%
% New Other: 1.27%
Diff: 78,314
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,199,729
trump: 3,263,995
Other: 83,613
New Biden: 14,360
New trump: 3,199
New Other: -121
% New Biden: 82.35%
% New trump: 18.34%
% New Other: -.69%
Diff: -64,266
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,224,935
trump: 3,273,789
Other: 84456
New Biden: 15,364
New trump: 5,932
New Other: 188
% New Biden: 71.51%
% New trump: 27.61%
% New Other: 0.88%
Diff: -48,854
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,243,736
trump: 3,280,308
Other: 84763
New Biden: 7,960
New trump: 2,390
New Other: 127
% New Biden: 75.98%
% New trump: 22.81%
% New Other: 1.21%
Diff: -36,572
Roland99
(53,342 posts)PA
Biden: 3,255,729
trump: 3,282,048
Other: 84939
New Biden: 19,953
New trump: 4,130
New Other: 303
% New Biden: 81.82%
% New trump: 16.94%
% New Other: 01.24%
Diff: -26,319
Roland99
(53,342 posts)61k votes are outstanding in Georgia.
17,157 from Chatham;
11,200 from Fulton;
7,338 from Gwinnett;
4,713 from Forsyth;
3,641 from Harris;
1,797 from Laurens;
1,552 from Putnam;
1,202 from Sumter;
700 from Cobb
Link to tweet
Overall in 2016:
Chatham was 55.7 Clinton; 41.2 trump
Fulton was 69.2 Clinton; 27.1 trump
Gwinnett was 51.0 Clinton; 45.2 trump
So if these are all the early mailed-in ballots, the %s should be much higher than overall
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA
Biden: 2,419,435
trump: 2,434,292
Other: 61,374
New Biden: 5,469
New trump: 1,740
New Other: 124
% New Biden: 74.58%
% New trump: 23.73%
% New Other: 1.69%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Biden: 2,425,417
trump: 2,438,181
Other: 61,508
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Biden: 2,430,153
trump: 2,439,678
Other: 61,650
New Biden: 4,736
New trump: 1,497
New Other: 142
% New Biden: 74.29%
% New trump: 23.48%
% New Other: 2.22%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA
Biden: 2,441,904
trump: 2,445,539
Other: 61,996
New Biden: 11,405
New trump: 5,614
New Other: 337
% New Biden: 65.71%
% New trump: 32.34%
% New Other: 1.94%
Diff: -3,635
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA
Biden: 2,443,364
trump: 2,446,850
Other: 62,056
New Biden: 12,865
New trump: 6,925
New Other: 397
% New Biden: 63.73%
% New trump: 34.30%
% New Other: 1.97%
Diff: -3,486
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA
Biden: 2,444,518
trump: 2,447,015
Other: 62074
New Biden: 1,154
New trump: 165
New Other: 18
% New Biden: 86.31%
% New trump: 12.34%
% New Other: 1.35%
Diff: -2,497
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)bdamomma
(63,791 posts)Atlanta votes been counted yet?? Also not to sound ignorant what is "a split vote?"
Roland99
(53,342 posts)brettdale
(12,358 posts)Kick
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA-SEN
Ossoff: 47.67%
Perdue: 50.00%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)GA-SEN
Ossoff: 2,325,924 47.674%
Perdue: 2,439,265 49.997%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Ossoff: 47.680%
Perdue: 49.991%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Ossoff: 47.702%
Perdue: 49.968%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Ossoff: 47.731%
Perdue: 49.938%
Roland99
(53,342 posts)NV
Biden: 597,353
trump: 585,311
Other: 24,580
New Biden: 9,101
New trump: 4,706
New Other: 522
% New Biden: 63.51%
% New trump: 32.84%
% New Other: 3.64%
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)Response to Roland99 (Reply #26)
Roland99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
coti
(4,612 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)haven't updated the tweet in a bit. I'll try and do that every few hours. Not worth a new tweet every 10 min
coti
(4,612 posts)outstanding ballots numbers had to be corrected by CNN. Went from 550k outstanding to 370k outstanding, completely screwed the math. If Biden gets 80% in the roughly 100K+ Philly area, he'll need at least 60% in the rest of the state to tie.
coti
(4,612 posts)Blaukraut
(5,692 posts)coti
(4,612 posts)as earlier this morning
Ugh
Roland99
(53,342 posts)coti
(4,612 posts)confirming that she was wrong and it was actually 370k. She fucked up big time.
coti
(4,612 posts)Wolf JUST used the 370k figure
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,473,176
trump: 1,405,078
Other: 40,585
New Biden: 2,616
New trump: 2,647
New Other: 147
% New Biden: 48.35%
% New trump: 48.93%
% New Other: 2.71%
Diff: 68,098
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,476,693
trump: 1,415,224
Other: 40,757
New Biden: 1,013
New trump: 4,723
New Other: 97
% New Biden: 17.37%
% New trump: 80.97%
% New Other: 1.66%
Diff: 61,469
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,478,720
trump: 1,419,767
Other: 40,979
New Biden: 2,027
New trump: 4,543
New Other: 222
% New Biden: 29.84%
% New trump: 66.89%
% New Other: 3.27%
Diff: 58,953
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,496,142
trump: 1,438,298
Other: 41,845
New Biden: 1,879
New trump: 582
New Other: 24
% New Biden: 75.61%
% New trump: 23.42%
% New Other: 0.97%
Diff: 57,844
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,528,319
trump: 1,482,062
Other: 43175
New Biden: 31,700
New trump: 42,276
New Other: 1,338
% New Biden: 42.09%
% New trump: 56.13%
% New Other: 1.78%
Diff: 46,257
Roland99
(53,342 posts)AZ
Biden: 1,532,062
trump: 1,485,010
Other: 43377
New Biden: 2,953
New trump: 2,568
New Other: 192
% New Biden: 51.69
% New trump: 44.95%
% New Other: 3.36%
Diff: 47,052