az new numbers

[brettdale]

Still confusing

[sweetloukillbot]

1. Trump gained 10K votes

Going forward, the rest should tilt Biden, it sounds like.

[mvd]

3. Less worrisome then?

Going to bed soon so want some good news.

[sweetloukillbot]

7. Sounds like these were mail-ins returned over the weekend

Those were expected to be more Trump. The next group should be drop-offs. THose are expected to be more pro-Biden as they're people who vote by mail but didn't trust the mail. Or at least that's how I understand.
There's also variance from which district the drop comes from, and Ruben Gallego says his district's haven't been processed yet. They should be heavily Democratic.

We'll see. Trump hit over 59% on the last drop. This one was under 59% (but just barely).

[W_HAMILTON]

2. I *think* this latest drop was more pro-Biden than the last one.

Which is a good thing.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Trump won 58% of this. That's exactly what he needs to hit to possibly overtake Biden.

[W_HAMILTON]

6. The last drop, though, he was just over 59%. So this batch was slightly better for Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yes but we need him to drop below that.

Let's hope the next ballots see a smaller gap. Trump has to really thread the needle to win.

[Demsrule86]

11. Expert on CNN says won't continue as next vote is different. It won't be enough which is

Why various Media have called it is for Biden. Also more blue to come in from different counties.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I agree that it's very possible it doesn't last but we'll see.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. If Trump continues at this pace, he'll be positioned to win Arizona.

He needs to keep winning the outstanding vote by 58%. That's basically what he hit

Not great for Biden. Not a disaster but this update means Trump has a real chance.

[pnwmom]

10. Were the results of two "early late" batches released tonight? Or just one?

I only heard the first one, with a 59% for Trump.

Was there a second release with a similar number?

[Drunken Irishman]

12. This one was the second release.

[grantcart]

15. These were late mail in votes

Next batch late drop offs, expected to be more Democratic


Remember Sinema gained in final batch.


We should pick up net 5K from Pima.

[radius777]

17. As long as the percentages keep decreasing

even if slightly we're in good shape. If there is a blowout dump (eg, over 60%) for Trump then it would not be good. But Enten and others are saying they think the next few dumps will be less red and maybe even blue. At least we hope.

[Wanderlust988]

9. CNN says the later batches will be more Democratic

according to the Biden folks. Harry Enten said he didn't think Trump could keep up the rate with the upcoming batches. Also, Pima County still has 17,000 votes outstanding and it's more Democratic. I think all in all, this is good news.

[W_HAMILTON]

13. Here are the results of this latest drop:

Link to tweet

Per Kornacki earlier in the night, he figured that Trump would need to win just over 59% of the remaining votes to catch up to Biden. The previous drop, Trump basically met that ~59%. This drop, he came close, but it dropped a bit from the last batch, which is a good thing.

Enten on CNN said that he thinks as the votes continue to drop, they will not meet this same ~58% level, which, again, would be a good thing for Biden.

EDIT: This guy (which has sort of been to Arizona what Ralston is to Nevada for me) agrees with Enten in this regard:

Link to tweet

[pnwmom]

16. Thanks. So Trump got 59% of the first batch and 58% on the second.

A tiny bit better but still too close for comfort!

[whttevrr]

18. Anything below 60% and he is brushed away like an old hamberder wrapper.

294K remaining
60% would be 176K/118K which would not beat 69k
Biden would still win by 11k

It's a squeaker if President Biden gets 40% of the remaining votes.

69K lead
294K/2
147K + 69k = 216k

216k/294k = 73%

https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+election+results+2020
2020 US election results
LiveUpdated at 11:54 PM PST
Arizona
PresidentUS SenateUS HouseGovernorBallot measures
Arizona · President
From The Associated Press
88% reporting · The Associated Press has called this race · 11 electoral votes · Learn more
Candidates
Vote %
Vote count

Joe Biden
Democratic Party
50.5%
1,469,341

Donald Trump
Republican Party
48.1%
1,400,951

[pnwmom]

19. Thank you! n/t