Reminder: NBC Estimates there are almost 18 Million uncounted ballots

[qdouble]

Judging from the states that have the most uncounted ballots and factoring in the fact that more democrats voted by mail or early, I'll estimate that could easily break to be a 70%/30% split in favor of Biden.

That would put Biden at around 83 or 84 million votes and Trump at 72 or 73 million. So Biden would win 52 or 53% of the popular vote and Trump would win about 45 or 46%. So that means the national polls were pretty accurate.

The question is going to be why is the polling in certain battle ground states so off? How many undelivered ballots are there? Did voter suppression play a role? What else could it be?

[SleeplessinSoCal]

1. I hope some group can get to the bottom of where the ballots went.

If it was by design of Republicans who openly complain about democracy, we need to take this to the people in the biggest way possible. Before JANUARY 20th.

Otherwise the only lesson learned is that cheaters always prosper in America today.

[qdouble]

3. Yeah...

I definitely think Biden is going to win this, but his margin collapsing specifically in battleground states while being accurate in other states is highly suspect. I know they were talking about 380K+ ballots not being delivered on time...but I wonder if that number is larger.

However, when I look county by county results... I think some of it can be attributable to Trump having a better "get out the vote" game in rural areas.

[rownesheck]

9. I half jokingly

tell my kids, the only way to get ahead in life is to lie, cheat, steal or kill.

It's a line from the movie A Brady Bunch Sequel.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

12. After the 2000 election, I recall a book or essay on ..

America: A Nation of Cheaters. Spun out from proof of cheating on college exams. And then we were in Iraq, and New Orleans was under water, Lehman went under, the housing bubble burst, and people like Steve Mnuchin made out like a bandit. And now he's in charge of the treasury!!!!

Cheaters will be the death of US.

[c-rational]

14. +1

[Withywindle]

2. I wonder if the polling really was that far off

This election is a very very different one from any other, because of COVID and the actual attempts by Trump to sabotage the post office way ahead of an election that's more mail-driven than ever before.

The polling was still running on a more conventional idea of measuring voters' intentions. In this case, voters' intentions might not have matched what they actually succeeded in doing.

[qdouble]

4. It was definitely on point nationally

I do statistical modeling when I work on certain programming projects, so when I'm looking at the remaining votes and where they are coming from, it's clear to me that Biden did way better than it currently looks. When all the votes are counted, he will likely win by a 6 to 9 point margin and by a little more or less than 10 million votes.

That a 10 Million vote victory is even close speaks to how we need to get rid of the electoral college.

I'm going to look a little bit further to see which states seem like they may be off by the most and which ones will probably end up being accurate.

[qdouble]

7. Okay, so I ran the numbers...

538 Polling Average

Arizona - 2.6% Biden - Still Possible
Florida - 2.5% Biden - This is going to be off 3 or 4 points
Georgia - 0.9% Biden - Still possible that it's close to this
Iowa - 1.3% Trump - Seems way off right now, but may get closer with 8% uncounted
Michigan - 8% Biden - Going to be off by about 5%
Minnesota - 9.2% Biden - Still Possible
Nevada - 5.3% Biden - Still possible if most of the remain vote is for Biden
New Hampshire - 11.1% Biden - With 99% counted, this is off about 4%
North Carolina - 1.8% Biden - Still Possible if remaining vote favors Biden
Ohio - 0.8% Trump - Trump is at 8.1% but this will shrink with 10% uncounted
Pennsylvania - 4.7% Biden- Trump up 2.6%, but this can come close if it swings back to Biden with the last 11% of the vote remaining
Texas - 1.1% Trump - Trump is up 5.9% but this can shrink with 4% of the vote remaining
Wisconsin - 8.4% Biden - This seems way off as Biden will win by less than 1%

So the biggest misses are: Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and possibly Iowa. The rest will likely be accurate or within the margin or error.

[ElementaryPenguin]

16. Notice the discrepancies in the results ALL SWAY ONE WAY - towards Trump!!

More evidence of HACKING!!!!!!!!!

[Captain Zero]

5. Right what else could it be? I can't imagine.

cough, cough, Putin, Rove, cough cough. Machine hacks cough cough.
We need a complete analysis of the largest precincts. That's where the votes are. That's where they switch them with software. That's why they were upset about mail in ballots. They can't switch them electronically.

[qdouble]

8. Definitely needs to be some deep examination on certain states

Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and Iowa are the biggest outliers...everything else seems like it's going to be more or less accurate. There can definitely be some combination of DeJoy not delivering mail or other trickery involved in those being off so much.

[Lars39]

6. Was military ballots included?

They have until next Tuesday iirc

[qdouble]

10. Well, according to what was put out earlier

Those ballots may still be coming in for certain states.

[Lars39]

13. Ok thanks!

[Mopar151]

11. They are in the mail!

De Joy is a name that will live in infamy. FBI should search a lot of Postal facilities along about yesterday!

[mattclearing]

15. I think people are getting it twisted.

The people state their preference in a poll of likely voters that doesn’t involve the obstacle course of suppression and covid, and then they attempt to vote in America, and people are all, how come the vote totals don’t match? Stupid pollsters!