Neera Tanden: Biden may take 5+ states Trump won in 2016 AND have a 5 million popular vote margin

[highplainsdem]

Two tweets starting here:

Link to tweet

Today is the day Biden could win Pennsylvania, Arizona and perhaps even Georgia. That would mean he took 5 states Trump won in 2016. He may well have a 5 million popular vote margin.

That is not minor. That is huge. An impressive victory over an incumbent.




Just a reminder, only two incumbent presidents have been defeated in 50 years.

[beachbumbob]

1. the margin can be way more than just 5 million as only 139 million has been reported with estimate

of 150+ million votes been cast

[mr_lebowski]

5. I think the margin is around 4M right now, a bit less maybe ...

But there's only a couple % separating them.

Biden gaining more than another million from the 11M difference you're talking about would be statistically improbable.

[NewJeffCT]

8. how much of California has been counted?

they typically take a week or more to finish counting and Biden is up statewide there by about 2:1 if I'm nost mistaken

[mr_lebowski]

10. I don't know. Yeah I suppose if a large % of that is CA it could turn out higher

than 1M shift.

That'd be nice, bigger the better.

[DonaldsRump]

2. Technically, it's 3 presidents: Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Bush I

More importantly, none of those three ever tried to effectively shut down the Post Office to win the election. I am sure there are tons more voter suppression tactics that Trump used that these three would never, in their wildest dreams, use.

That Joe will win under these circumstances makes it all the more amazing that he beat an incumbent.

[LiberalFighter]

11. I thought there was more than 2.

[Glorfindel]

3. "Just a reminder, only two incumbent presidents have been defeated in 50 years."

I count three defeated incumbent presidents in the last 50 years: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992.

[mr_lebowski]

6. Should've said 'incumbent Presidents who were ever actually elected President' nt

[DonaldsRump]

12. Regardless, none of those 3 EVER would have done the stuff Trump has done to suppress the vote:

Ukraine smear scandal leading to impeachment; Post Office; etc.

That Joe will still win after all this was thrown at him is all the more remarkable.

[mr_lebowski]

13. True dat! (nt)

[lapfog_1]

4. otoh Trump is the worst President in history

and the most hated person in the USA at present.

I still do not understand how he gets 60+ million citizens to vote for him.

That is a mystery I will likely take to my grave.

[Solomon]

7. What I said last night

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214453702

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. I'll be curious if Biden wins by about 5% in the...

... popular vote.

The CNN exit poll indicates about that margin after using a bit of algebra on the numbers, and they turned out to be very close in 2016 after all of the California voters were counted and such.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results