***Update in PA***

[MissB]

Just small gains in red county that gave gains to biden in Erie.

Small reports so far but have given Biden small gains in trumps lead

[awesomerwb1]

1. Gains from a red county is good news.

[MissB]

3. Kornacki notes that they were primarily mail in ballots

So those would favor Biden even in a red county.

[awesomerwb1]

4. Crap.

Well, still positive news.

[MissB]

6. I'd think that all mail in will favor Biden!

So that’s a good thing.

[LisaL]

8. Why is that crap?

What they are counting right now is mostly mail in ballots. If they are favoring Biden even in red counties that's good news, not crap.

[awesomerwb1]

12. Did you read the rest of my f-ing post?

[AngryOldDem]

10. Why?

[awesomerwb1]

13. Did you guys not read my entire post??

[Happy Hoosier]

5. I agree... as long as Philly is still HEAVY D, Biden gains in red counties is bad news for Trump. NT

[democrattotheend]

7. Biden is winning the mail vote in almost all PA counties, including deep red ones

So if mail is all that's left to count, he should gain almost everywhere.

The converse is true with in-person votes: Trump is winning the election day vote in every county except Philadelphia. Even Democratic strongholds like Montgomery and Delaware (though it's closer there). But I think all or most regular in-person votes have already been counted.

The in-person provisional ballots in red counties are more of a wild card. As I noted above, the in-person vote heavily favors Trump, but provisionals usually favor Democrats, at least in a normal election.

[LisaL]

9. As far as I understand it, they count regular ballots day of the election.

So what they are counting now are mostly mail in ballots, and some provisionals, I guess.
Provisionals usually favor democrats, like you said.

[PAMod]

11. Excellent rundown.

Many people are legitimately having trouble understanding the exact scenarios that you describe.

I was called a liar today for saying the mail-in votes favor the Ds - from someone who parroted Trump’s railing against vote-by-mail for months.

[PubliusEnigma]

2. That's what Trump gets for telling Erie that he'd rather be elsewhere.