The Senate in 2022

[James48]

Here is the list of Senate seats next up for vote in 2022. A tough nut to crack, but not impossible.

Democrats
Bennet, Michael F. (D-CO)
Blumenthal, Richard (D-CT)
Cortez Masto, Catherine (D-NV)
Duckworth, Tammy (D-IL)
Harris, Kamala D. (D-CA)
Hassan, Margaret Wood (D-NH)
Leahy, Patrick J. (D-VT)
Murray, Patty (D-WA)
Schatz, Brian (D-HI)
Schumer, Charles E. (D-NY)
Van Hollen, Chris (D-MD)
Wyden, Ron (D-OR)


Republicans
Blunt, Roy (R-MO)
Boozman, John (R-AR)
Burr, Richard (R-NC)
Crapo, Mike (R-ID)
Grassley, Chuck (R-IA)
Hoeven, John (R-ND)
Johnson, Ron (R-WI)
Kennedy, John (R-LA)
Lankford, James (R-OK)
Lee, Mike (R-UT)
Loeffler, Kelly (R-GA)
McSally, Martha (R-AZ)
Moran, Jerry (R-KS)
Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK)
Paul, Rand (R-KY)
Portman, Rob (R-OH)
Rubio, Marco (R-FL)
Scott, Tim (R-SC)
Shelby, Richard C. (R-AL)
Thune, John (R-SD)
Toomey, Patrick J. (R-PA)
Young, Todd (R-IN)

Which seats do you think are most vulnerable on each side, and why?

[dalton99a]

1. Kick

[obamanut2012]

2. Burr isn't running for reelection in NC

If Cooper wasn't Gov, he would be a great one to run.

I think Toomey isn't, either.

[Freddie]

5. He's not

Hope we get a good one to run for that seat - like Gov Wolf, who will be ending his 2nd and final term that year.

[aeromanKC]

16. As per another DU thread neither is Johnson (WI)

DU post earlier this morning stated Burr, Toomey and Johnson not running in 2022. 2 very reasonable pickups!!

[zaj]

3. It's draw in 2022.

Maybe on at risk Dem and slightly 4 at risk Reps.

But if Susan Collins can't lose, I don't see how Marco Rubio or Rob Portman will either.

Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson are most likely.

[TwilightZone]

4. McSally lost.

[genxlib]

6. The entire race will be problematic for us

Because it will be midterm. They always kill us.

And this one will be especially difficult because I expect the next 2 years to be hard. We are starting with a broken government in the midst of a public health crises that has done serious and long term damage to the economy. It would be hard without a divided Government but we have a hostile Senate and Supreme Court to deal with.

The electorate is fickle and will give the Republicans congress unless we can show some progress against some very serious headwinds.

[BannonsLiver]

9. The 2022 map is generally seen as more favorable to Dems

Though not glaringly so. It’s also worth noting that W Bush took control of the senate in the 2002 mid terms which were not expected to be favorable to him. The mid terms were not favorable maps for Dems in both 2010 and 2014, which is one reason why they were not good.

[genxlib]

14. I agree the map is more favorable

I just think the governing environment for us is really bad right now.

Any rational analysis would say that the next two years will be challenging for reasons that are not our doing. The electorate is not rational as we have seen.

It should be noted that favorable Senate maps follow a pattern that reflect a 6 year history. 2022 is favorable to us because 2016 hurt us badly. 2014 was hard because 2008 was a good year for us and many of those seats were tenuous.

[BannonsLiver]

18. Probably but we really don't know what's going to happen over the next 2 years

We’re living in an era of high volatility both culturally and politically.

My starting assumptions moving forward on the senate for Dems is that the real position is probably worse than we think or want it to be. For example, my heart tells me we’ve got a shot at the GA runoffs. But in reality we’re more likely than not to lose both.

[vlyons]

12. McConnell's Republican obstructionist senate will just repeat what they did to Obama.

Block and stop everything the House Dems send over. R's don't give a crap about people. They CANNOT let Dems win and get credit for anything good and helpful.

[genxlib]

15. I think it will be worse than before

McConnell has learned that he can still win regardless of how cynically he plays the game.

[sfstaxprep]

7. I Suspect Kamala Won't Be Running & McSally Definitely Won't Be

Whoever is Kamala's replacement will be though. And Kelly will be.

My money is on Adam Schiff, but we'll see.

[vlyons]

24. I'd rather see Schiff as Attorney General

He was once a prosecutor

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Burr and Toomey are retiring, Johnson should be investigated for Russia ties, but my faves are

Rubio, Paul, and Grassley- would love to see them go down.

If we end up only needing 1 or 2 seats (assuming we don’t already have a majority through non-electoral means, via vacancies created in Dem run states through cabinet appointments of R-Sens, or prosecutions/resignations- looking at you Johnson), I think we have a decent shot.

[Bettie]

23. Iowa is horrible

and Chuckles will cruise to victory easily with his stupid "three lawn mowers tied together" ads.

I'm not feeling very positive about the state I live in these days.

[FM123]

10. I honestly don't know if this could be....

but I would love to see Debbie Wasserman-Schultz run against Marco Rubio and take his Senate seat here in Florida. Debbie's district in Broward is VERY blue so even if she left the House, pretty sure another Dem would win her vacated seat.

[OnDoutside]

19. Well there will be a Dem primary, so she could run in that, but I wonder would a Hispanic

Dem offer a better chance ?

[FM123]

27. That is a very good question.

Maybe....

[standingtall]

11. I think we got just as good a chance at the probably 2 Georgia runoffs in Jan

Then anything I see on the list for 2022 at this point.

[Butterflylady]

13. Toomey is retiring

Some say he wants to run for Gov. Who knows what he is thinking.

[IrishEyes]

17. Since McSally lost, Mark Kelly will be defending his seat.

He will be up for reelection since it was a special election this year. Martha McSally was put in office when John McCain died in 2018.

I think there are some possibilities there for us to take the senate.

[FBaggins]

20. The Democrats are mostly in pretty safe seats (unless we win the GA special election)

First off-year election for a new President is usually tough (and almost certainly will be for the House)... but there isn't much low-hanging fruit for Republicans to target.

OTOH - there are enough seats on the other side to switch control of the Senate. NC/PA at least + GA if we lose the SE in Jan

[Celerity]

25. The goon Johnson too in WI. But, as they will be the opposing party, the Rethugs

have history at their back, for what it is worth. I predict we pick up PA, NC, WI.

But

We have 3, possibly 4, sort of vulnerable seats.

NV especially if the very popular ex Gov. Sandoval challenges Cortez Masto

NH if Gov. Sununu and or ex Senator Kelly Ayotte (barely lost last time) challenge Hassan

AZ Kelly , IF the Rethugs find a decent candidate

And a wild card, VT, if Leahy retires and the very popular Rethug Gov. Phil Scott runs.

[FBaggins]

26. Maybe... but I wouldn't bet much on it

If Feingold couldn't beat him in 2016 (when polls for months showed him up by double digits), I don't see how a lesser candidate takes him out in a mid-year election.

If Trump somehow wins, then the backlash might be enough to take him out... but that looks unlikely at this point.

[Polybius]

21. Probably Toomey

Georgia too, whoever wins will be vulnerable.

[Celerity]

22. Some corrections and my list of vulnerable seats

Rethugs

Alabama - Shelby is likely to retire, but not certain.

Georgia - Loeffler first need to win the runoff versus Warnock in January 2021.

Iowa - Grassley will be almost 90yo. He might retire.

North Carolina - Burr stated he is retiring.



Vulnerable Rethug seats, some remotely so

FL - Rubio

GA - Loeffler, assuming she wins

IN - Young (only person who could, and it is a real reach, beat him, is Buttigieg)

IA - no matter what the fossil Grassley does

KY - Rand Paul

MO - Blunt (long shot)

NC - open seat or a lying Burr

OH - Portman (long shot)

PA - Toomey

WI - Johnson

Atm, I predict we pick up 3. NC, PA, WI. Absolute max would be 8.

Biden as POTUS means we will be swimming upstream possibly, as the opposing party historically does well in the first midterms.



Dems

Arizona - Kelly won, runs again, this time for a full 6 year term.

California - It will be whoever is appointed to replace Harris.

Vermont - Leahy may retire.


Vulnerable Dem Seats (most are a remote chance we lose)

AZ - Kelly

CO - Bennet

NV - Cortez Masto If he runs, Brian Sandoval poses a real threat.

NH - Hassan Rethug Governor Chris Sununu and also former US Senator Kelly Ayotte would pose the biggest risks.

VT - If Leahy retires, the popular Rethug Gov, Phil Scott might cause issues if he runs.


The NV and NH worry me most, then AZ.