Silver on Georgia: Trump in trouble.

[Happy Hoosier]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 1:21 PM
This sort of data is a big problem for Trump in Georgia. Even in a place like Bryan County, where Trump won by 43 points in 2016, Biden is actually winning by 15 in mail votes that were processed today. Those mail votes are just coming in very blue, sometimes even in red counties.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmFDWkZXEAI6yTs?format=jpg&name=small

[W_HAMILTON]

2. No, he doesn't.

[llmart]

4. +1000

Agree.

[Codeine]

5. Nonsense. nt

[PubliusEnigma]

6. The math is the math.

[idziak4ever1234]

3. Bright Red Georgia Clay and a big Red Mirage to go with it!

[regnaD kciN]

7. Damn it, we don't NEED Georgia, but I WANT it...

Taking a “Deep South” state would be a symbolic final nail in the Trumpster coffin.

[jayschool2013]

8. I want 300 electoral votes

Though they're not needed, getting to 306 and equaling Trump's 2016 number would also send a signal.

[Golfnbrew]

17. How about ALL the rest except AK?

that puts Biden at 321 - SWEEET !

[calimary]

10. That would be PEACHY to grab Georgia!

Wouldn’t that shiver the GOP timbers!

[Happy Hoosier]

11. Me too!!! NT

[calimary]

12. Sorry - unintentional duplicate.

[moonscape]

15. I want Perdue under 50% - hopefully the outstanding votes

will do this.

[Eyeball_Kid]

23. Yes. Very important. n/t

[quakerboy]

16. Wrong. We need GA more than PA

PA will get us the presidency.

a Biden GA win also means two senate runoffs there becomes a near certainty and control of the senate a real possibility

In a senate that will otherwise be 48d-50r

2 runoffs in a state that just went blue and is where the blue voters are excited

2 runoffs with no trump on the ballot to pull his true believers, and them being dispirited by a loss of the presidency.

[whopis01]

21. Exactly. On all counts. n/t

[H2O Man]

22. +1

[crickets]

25. Yes! nt

[Celerity]

18. We will need it IF tge almost impossible happens and Rump sweeps

NV, AZ, and the least likely for him atm , PA. Assuming he wins ME-2, then if we win GA, and lose the other 3, it is tied 269-269.

At that point, as the Rethugs have 26 House delegations (or 27 or 28, and thus, even at 26, enough to re-elect Trump), we have one option left but it courts open violent civil war.

Pelosi can invoke Article 1, Section 5 powers, temporarily seat enough Dems and not seat enough Rethugs (when the new Congress starts January 3rd) to give us control of 26 state delegations or more, and then elect Biden.

It IS within her constitutional power, but kinetic civil war would ensue, I would say the chances are 90% plus likely of that.

[Iggo]

19. Long as we're shy of 270, we do need Georgia.

And since those punk ass Trumps are gonna fight the results everywhere, we need every state we can get.

[Dopers_Greed]

9. I want Georgia, damnit

This would be the ultimate fuck-you to the GOP for stealing it from Stacy Abrams in 2018

[yaesu]

13. the last votes 50k+ are coming from a Dem county, just need 11k to beat dumpf. nt

[onenote]

20. that isn't how the math works

Last edited Thu Nov 5, 2020, 08:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Your post suggests that because Biden is 11K behind Trump, he only needs 11K of the 50K still to be counted. But if Biden only got 11K of those votes, Trump would get 39K and would pull ahead by an even larger margin.

Biden needs to get 31K of the 50K to overtake Trump.

[DLCWIdem]

26. Dont we need 32k to win

[ProfessorGAC]

29. Supporting Onenote

No, it's 31,000.
That leaves 19,000 for PINO. A delta of 12,000 with a current number of 11,000.
32,000 would be better of course. The Biden delta goes to 3,000 then.

[IronLionZion]

14. So peachy!

I hope Biden and Ossoff end up winning after all votes are counted. All votes matter.

[Eyeball_Kid]

24. Hmm. I thought that the best case scenario

would be a double Senatorial runoff. It seemed to me that Ossoff is too far behind, but I’d be thrilled to be wrong. A direct victory sounds great.

[MissB]

27. Purdue dropped below 50%

It’s been at 50.0 this morning but recently dropped. So... double runoff.

[Warpy]

28. If GA flips enough for a recount, the party is going to have to

take Stacey Abrams a lot more seriously.

Dumdum was right about the mail in vote. I think the prospect of facing Klanners at the polls has always kept voting down in a lot of rural and semi rural areas. Not so if they can mail it in.

[IronLionZion]

30. We need federal election reform legislation

voter suppression needs to be stopped everywhere