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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDon't sell Nate Silver short!
Nate Silver is getting some criticism, but consider this:It's currently 253 to 213 with Biden leading. Biden is favored in Nevada and Arizona for 6 + 11 = 17 votes, and there's a compelling argument that he'll win Pennsylvania for 20 more votes. If we assume that Trump will win North Carolina (15 votes) and Georgia (16 votes) it'll be Biden, 290 to 248.
Go to the fivethirtyeight.com map and put your mouse cursor on the right side of Joe Biden's chin (Joe's right, not yours).
Compare that little map to the one at CNN's website.
Also, Georgia is very close and could raise the win to 306 to 232. Amusingly, that's on the left side of Biden's chin!
So it seems to me that fivethirtyeight.com did a pretty good job!
BusyBeingBest
(8,052 posts)I don't fault him.
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)But if you throw 9 blue balls (forgive me) and one red ball into a bingo hopper, youve got some chance of the red ball coming up. About 1 in 10. So 89 is not 100.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)No way he does that. Republicans turned out huge for their Orange leader
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)So that would be within the MOE of most polls showing Biden with a 9-10 point lead.
a kennedy
(29,661 posts)yardwork
(61,608 posts)Mosby
(16,311 posts)Thats why he "studied" with Gelman at Columbia, all he has is a BA.
a kennedy
(29,661 posts)Stallion
(6,474 posts)another factor that needs further evaluation is how many ballots were voided due the UPSO's failure to deliver ballots--538.com doesn't factor fraud. I wouldn't be surprised that when all votes are counted-especially from the West Coast, that the numbers are too far off from Biden +8.4. Its up to Biden +4 and it will end up around Biden +6. There are millions of votes from West Coast yet to be counted just like in 2016 and those will be strong pro-Biden
bullimiami
(13,094 posts)and the other assorted tactics have been red-shifting our elections for many years.
if there is a flaw in the polling its the failure to account for the trickery.
the first time i really noted it was cleland/chambliss in ga.
tossing people off voter rolls, closing polling stations, making it easier for R districts to vote than D districts.
gerrymandering and the power it gives them to do this.
just some of whats in their trick bag.
when the results make no sense there is a reason.
yardwork
(61,608 posts)PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)Amishman
(5,557 posts)89% to win doesn't mean 89% chance of a landslide win.
I like Nate. His is honest and does the best with the information he can get. We have a nasty way of shooting the messenger when they are telling us something we don't want to hear.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)OhZone
(3,212 posts)the pollsters who were off.
Or the fact that people cannot be polled well any more.
There are so many scam calls on cells AND landlines, who wants to even answer the phone any more?
edhopper
(33,579 posts)he is a statistician, and the all polls he had to work with were terribly off.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)2016 levels.
Amishman
(5,557 posts)The adjustments to account for education levels didn't fix it
clutterbox1830
(395 posts)He is not a pollster. He only list the probability from the data he's given.
In fact, the 538 blog is probably the most accurate and informative source of information with all of these close ballot counts.
Towlie
(5,324 posts)Imperialism Inc.
(2,495 posts)He said Biden could survive a 2016 level polling error, and even a slightly larger one. We got the larger one and he was barely right... probably. But for the polling industry this should be a huge embarrassment.
LizBeth
(9,952 posts)we will find out later. It really has been a huge turn out. And bring to senate run offs, could be a blue wave. Didn't add to the house, we lost a few last I heard. But this works. Especially if we can tie the senate.
meadowlander
(4,395 posts)to what is happening (but still not the same)?
Talk about hedging your bets.
Bonn1997
(1,675 posts)meadowlander
(4,395 posts)but the OP is framed as "look! Nate Silver got it pretty close to right!" which is significantly more impressive than "look! Nate Silver said here's 100 things that could happen and one of those things is pretty close to right!"
Bonn1997
(1,675 posts)Towlie
(5,324 posts)It's not like picking lottery numbers where you have to get the numbers just right.
standingtall
(2,785 posts)The most I heard anybody say turnout would be before the election was that of the 1960's. Now I'm hearing this is the biggest turnout sense 1908. Generally true higher turnout usually favors Democrats and it did in this election too that's why Biden is going to win, but it's not as overwhelming as we like to think. We Democratic turnout increases significantly so does republican turnout and there are lots of right wing idiots that don't usually vote too.
Bonn1997
(1,675 posts)How else would we know that we need to look into what happened?