46,257: Biden's lead in AZ now

[marybourg]

[Goodheart]

1. It looks like the AP and Fox were very wrong to call Arizona so early.

This has gotten nerve-wracking.

[PTWB]

5. We've been saying that since about 5 seconds after they called it.

Biden MIGHT win AZ. It may even still lean Biden - barely - but calling it so early before the votes were counted was totally irresponsible.

[LisaL]

6. Calling a state doesn't mean anything.

It can be called, it can be uncalled.

[PTWB]

8. It doesn't mean anything which is why it was stupid to do.

[LisaL]

28. Yes, it was stupid.

But networks calling the state for someone doesn't make it so.

[In It to Win It]

19. I agree. They called it too early. It was too many votes still left to count

[liberal_mama]

37. I was surprised they called AZ so early too

I'm still worried about AZ. Hopefully AP is right.

[SlogginThroughIt]

2. Sick to my stomach

[Farmgirl1961]

3. Yeah, it dropped from 68,390 this morning

Wondering if there are more blue county votes to pick up

[Amishman]

26. These are from an otherwise purple / blue county

These sets happen to be slanted red.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1324217105433030656

There is reason to believe that the batches going forward will be more mixed or even blue.

We apparently are not into the ~175k election day dropoffs yet. Those are expected to be more independents and younger.

This would also fit better with the way the 2018 Senate race went significantly blue in the last 200k votes. The difference between 2018's blue shift and thus current red shift has been annoying and confusing me.

[BannonsLiver]

4. Nate Silver says Trump fell slightly short of his target.

Link to tweet

?s=21

[triron]

13. Guess that's good

[Buckeyeblue]

18. That's what I thought just trying to do the math in my head

And it just takes a batch that's 50-50 or that Biden gains slightly and Trump's threshold goes up.

[BannonsLiver]

42. Yeah crossing my fingers this is the start of a trend back to Biden

[Cha]

47. Mahalo.. so much

fricking Doom.

[Catherine Vincent]

7. Wolf just said it's still possible Trump would win the election

[DarthDem]

10. LOL.

He's wrong.

[sfstaxprep]

15. Please Show Me How Drumpf's Probability Is Zero

If it's not zero, then he still has a chance to win the election.

Just because a baseball team has a 15 run lead, does not mean they won until the last out of the game.

[mvd]

21. Well, Philly alone should get PA now

I’d say PA is 99% Biden win, so Dump may be 1% or less to win the election if you consider the other states. Only more than that if cheating is allowed, which I doubt. People are tired of Dump’s behavior.

[sfstaxprep]

30. If It's Truly 99% In PA

One of the networks will call it soon.

I don't think it's 99%. Probably still in the 80's. Just my opinion.

Not saying it won't rise, and rise fast, but you know what they say about counting chickens before they hatch.

[mvd]

35. The math says it is very high

I stand by my figure.

The networks want to call it but are really careful. If Philly doesn’t finish him off, Allegheny or Delaware or another outstanding county will.

[Iwasthere]

23. Wolf should have clarified, perhaps "small and very remote chance"

[Thekaspervote]

25. It's called NV and PA

[yellowcanine]

40. Don't need NV if he gets PA. 253 without AZ + 20 273. Woo hoo!

[sfstaxprep]

11. They've Been Saying That All Along

IT IS TRUE!

Not likely, but true. Otherwise they would have declared Biden the winner.

[joshcryer]

14. They're needling him for his absurd statement about winning PA and not counting votes.

They know he's tuning in.

[Hoyt]

16. Unfortunately, I think it's possible too. Would still bet on Biden, but

until it’s in the bag we better be prepared.

[sfstaxprep]

20. Thank You

I won't feel 100% comfortable until January 20, but will feel overwhelming relief when Biden is declared the winner.

[still_one]

17. Sure, and it is also equally possible trump will lose Arizona

[sfstaxprep]

9. Doesn't Look Like AZ May Be Relevant Thankfully

Biden is on track to win PA, GA & NV.

[still_one]

12. The question is how many votes remain?

[marybourg]

22. That's the big unknown.

Before this dump, they’d been saying ~ 430,000 since Wed., never getting less. Now someone just said 440,000. I don’t know what to make of these #s.

[still_one]

24. Thanks

[StarryNite]

27. I'm listening to KTAR radio in Phoenix now. Their "experts" say tRump needs

to average 59% of the overall votes in AZ to overtake Biden. In that last drop tRump got 57%.

Pima County hasn't come in yet.

[marybourg]

29. That's good to know about Pima! Thanx.

[StarryNite]

36. Last night somebody said there are still votes to be counted in Coconino

County, which is a blue county. I don't know what the hold up is in Pima and Coconino Counties.

[marybourg]

46. Coconino is bluer than Maricopa, I think.

[Iliyah]

31. I think Biden/Harris will pull it out . .

[marybourg]

33. I think so too.

[sfstaxprep]

32. I Think AZ Will Quickly Become Gravy

If/When Biden goes ahead in GA and/or then PA, it will be over.

[marybourg]

34. Nothing wrong with a little gravy.

Especially with an insane, traitorous fascist currently occupying the WH.

[Roland99]

38. We're still ok there. Need only 43% of remaining votes

but PA will put us over the top!

[sinkingfeeling]

39. Still have 204,00 votes to be counted in Maricopa.

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 2m ago

Maricopa County will post its next report Friday at 11 a.m. ET. Officials there say they have 204,000 more early ballots to process, and a smaller number of provisional and other ballots. See Arizona results ›

[marybourg]

41. Maricopa is "lumpy", having only recently become purple.

We can’t count on it yielding Biden votes. Depending on where in Maricopa County, it might or might not.

[StarryNite]

44. True. I live in a red part of Maricopa County.

[marybourg]

45. Me too. Far west valley.

[StarryNite]

43. 155,000 votes in the rest of the state.

That includes votes from Pima County.