Recounts rarely change election outcomes ever

[sunonmars]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/


From 2016

Recounts typically don’t swing enough votes to change the winner. Out of 4,687 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2015, just 27 were followed by recounts, according to data compiled by FairVote, a nonpartisan group that researches elections and promotes electoral reform. Just three of those 27 recounts resulted in a change in the outcome, all leading to wins for Democrats: Al Franken’s win in Minnesota’s 2008 U.S. Senate race, Thomas M. Salmon’s win in Vermont’s 2006 auditor election and Christine Gregoire’s win in Washington’s 2004 gubernatorial race.

Recounts also typically don’t change the margin by an amount that would be large enough to affect the result of this year’s presidential election. The mean swing between the top two candidates in the 27 recounts was 282 votes, with a median of 219. The biggest swing came in Florida’s 2000 presidential election recount, when Al Gore cut 1,247 votes off George W. Bush’s lead, ultimately not enough to flip the state to his column. In each state Trump won or leads in, his advantage is more than 10,000 votes, according to counts to far. Some statewide races that have undergone recounts have far fewer votes than the closest states in the 2016 presidential race, but even in percentage terms, the average swing was 0.2 percentage points, which could be enough to flip Michigan but not any other states (and therefore not the Electoral College; even with Michigan, Clinton would be 22 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win).


You basically need to be within a few hundred votes, counts in the thousands and 10's of thousands do not get overturned.

Trump is not going to waste money paying for a recount.

Pa +38K+
WI +20K
GA +10K

A recount is not going to overturn those.

[Claustrum]

1. While true, don't underestimate the length Trumpers will go to throw out the ballots

and/or find some "irregularity" to call the whole election rigged.

[Soxfan58]

2. Georgia!

Welcome to our latest Blue State.