Polling versus Election Results
The below presentation of data compares the final polling averages from 538.com to election results reported as of 11/8/2020 at 6AM eastern time.
T=Trump, B=Biden, U=Uncommitted (either undecided or favoring 3rd party in polling, voted for 3rd party in results)
Please note that some states have still reported less than 90% of their vote total, and those states could see major changes to the percentages between now and when their counting is complete (see Alaska, California, DC, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Utah).
Initial thoughts:
There were a number of States that were not polled very much, and the primary pollster for many of those States was Survey Monkey. Those States were all non-battle ground States and tended to have low electoral vote counts. The results in those States do skew in Biden’s favor, but that is not a reflection on polling in general, that is a reflection primarily on Survey Monkey.
Most States were polled fairly extensively. In those States, Biden’s polling numbers were very accurate. The pattern that emerges over and over again is that people that were uncommitted to Trump or Biden in the polling ended up voting for Trump.
Most people, including myself, expected those uncommitted people to break for Biden – because the pandemic, the floundering economy, Trump’s behavior, and the fact the undecided voters almost always break against the incumbent. That would have created the Blue Wave that was predicted by many.
That leaves us with the question; why would these people break for Trump? Did all the gas lighting that the GOP did actually work? It would appear so. How do we combat that going forward? That’s beyond me.
In terms of the polling, I think this data shows that the polling, for the most part, was quite good. I think the explanation from most media sources regarding the meaning, or even the existence, of respondents to polls that were not committed to Trump or Biden and what that meant to possible outcomes was quite bad. The numbers below show that 538 deserves a lot of credit.
STATE/ % REPORTED/ POLLING DATA %/ RESULTS TO DATE %/DIFFERENCE %
ALABAMA/ 99/ T57.4 B37.8 U4.8/ T62.1 B36.5 U1.4/ T+4.7 B-1.3 U-3.4
ALASKA/ 47/ T51.2 B43.6 U5.2/ T62.9 B33.0 U4.1/ T+11.7 B-10.6 U-1.1
ARIZONA/ 97/ B48.7 T46.1 U5.2/ B49.5 T48.9 U1.6/ B+0.8 T+2.8 U-3.6
ARKANSAS/ 99/ T58.9 B36.2 U4.9/ T62.6 B34.6 U2.8/ T+3.7 B-1.6 U-2.1
CALIFORNIA/ 77/ B61.6 T32.4 U6.0/ B65.1 T33.0 U1.9/ B+3.5 T+0.6 U-4.1
COLORADO/ 95/ B53.6 T41.1 U5.3/ B55.3 T42.1 U2.6/ B+1.7 T+1.0 U-2.7
CONNECTICUT/ 97/ B58.6 T34.6 U6.8/ B59.3 T39.1 U1.6/ B+0.7 T+4.5 U-5.2
DELAWARE/ 99/ B58.9 T 34.6 U6.5/ B58.8 T39.8 U1.4/ B-0.1 T+5.2 U-5.1
DC/ 80/ B90.8 T5.8 U3.4/ B92.6 T5.2 U2.2/ B+1.8 T-0.6 U-1.2
FLORIDA/ 96/ T46.6 B49.1 U4.3/ T51.2 B47.8 U1.0/ T+4.6 B-1.3 U-3.3
GEORGIA/ 99/ B48.5 T47.4 U4.1/ B49.5 T49.3 U1.2/ B+1.0 T+1.9 U-2.9
HAWAII/ 99/ B64.3 T30.0 U5.7/ B63.7 T34.2 U2.1/ B-0.6 T+4.2 U-3.6
IDAHO/ 99/ T56.6 B38.5 U4.9/ T63.8 B33.1 U3.1/ T+7.2 B-5.4 U-1.8
ILLINOIS/ 89/ B55.0 T39.0 U6.0/ B55.3 T42.7 U2.0/ B+0.3 T+3.7 U-4.0
INDIANA/ 99/ T52.9 B42.0 U5.1/ T57.0 B40.9 U2.1/ T+4.1 B-1.1 U-3.0
IOWA/ 92/ T47.6 B46.3 U6.1/ T53.1 B44.9 U2.0/ T+5.5 B-1.4 U-4.1
KANSAS/ 99/ T53.9 B41.0 U5.1/ T56.7 B41.1 U2.2/ T+2.8 B+0.1 U-2.9
KENTUCKY/ 98/ T55.6 B39.9 U4.5/ T62.2 B36.0 U1.8/ T+6.6 B-3.9 U-2.7
LOUISIANA/ 99/ T57.6 B37.1 U5.3/ T58.5 B39.8 U1.7/ T+0.9 B+2.7 U-3.6
MAINE/ 91/ B53.3 T40.3 U6.4/ B53.5 T43.4 U3.1/ B+0.2 T+3.1 U-3.3
MARYLAND/ 70/ B63.1 T28.9 U8.0/ B63.1 T35.1 U1.8/ B+/-0.0 T+6.2 U-6.2
MASS./ 92/ B64.6 T28.9 U6.5/ B65.3 T32.4 U2.3/ B+0.7 T+3.5 U-4.2
MICHIGAN / 99/ B51.2 T43.2 U5.6/ B50.5 T47.9 U1.6/ B-0.7 T+4.7 U-4.0
MINNESOTA/ 96/ B51.8 T42.7 U5.5/ B52.5 T45.4 U2.1/ B+0.7 T+2.7 U-3.4
MISSISSIPPI/ 86/ T55.5 B39.6 U4.9/ T59.5 B38.9 U1.6/ T+4.0 B-0.7 U-3.3
MISSOURI/ 97/ T51.6 B43.6 U4.8/ T56.9 B41.3 U1.8/ T+5.3 B-2.3 U-3.0
MONTANA/ 99/ T49.8 B45.4 U4.8/ T56.7 B40.4 U2.9/ T+6.9 B-5.0 U-1.9
NEBRASKA/ 99/ T52.1 B42.5 U5.4/ T58.5 B39.1 U2.4/ T+6.4 B-3.4 U-3.0
NEVADA/ 95/ B49.7 T44.4 U5.9/ B50.0 T47.8 U2.2/ B+0.3 T+3.4 U-3.7
NEW HAMP./ 99/ B53.9 T42.8 U3.3/ B52.6 T45.5 U1.9/ B-1.3 T+2.7 U-1.4
NEW JERSEY/ 80/ B58.4 T37.9 U3.7/ B58.4 T40.1 U1.5/ B+/-0.0 T+2.2 U-2.2
NEW MEXICO/ 99/ B53.9 T42.1 U4.0/ B54.2 T43.6 U2.2/ B+0.3 T+1.5 U-1.8
NEW YORK/ 81/ B62.3 T32.9 U4.8/ B58.3 T40.4 U1.3/ B-4.0 T+7.5 U-3.5
N. CAROLINA/ 98/ T47.1 B48.9 U4.0/ T50.0 B48.6 U1.4/ T+2.9 B-0.3 U-2.6
N. DAKOTA/ 91/ T56.0 B38.7 U5.3/ T65.0 B31.7 U3.3/ T+9.0 B-7.0 U-2.0
OHIO/ 92/ T47.5 B46.8 U5.7/ T53.3 B45.2 U1.5/ T+5.8 B-1.6 U-4.2
OKLAHOMA/ 96/ T59.2 B36.2 U4.6/ T65.4 B32.3 U2.3/ T+6.2 B-3.9 U-2.3
OREGON/ 97/ B58.7 T37.4 U3.9/ B56.5 T40.4 U3.1/ B-2.2 T+3.0 U-0.8
PENNSYLVANIA/ 98/ B50.2 T45.6 U4.2/ B49.6 T49.1 U1.3/ B-0.6 T+3.5 U-2.9
RHODE ISLAND/97/ B62.9 T32.4 U4.7/ B59.4 T39.1 U1.5/ B-3.5 T+6.7 U-3.2
S. CAROLINA/ 99/ T51.6 B44.5 U3.9/ T55.1 B43.4 U1.5/ T+3.5 B-1.1 U-2.4
S. DAKOTA/ 98/ T54.5 B39.0 U6.5/ T61.8 B35.6 U2.6/ T+7.3 B-3.4 U-3.9
TENNESSEE/ 99/ T55.1 B41.4 U3.5/ T60.6 B37.4 U2.0/ T+5.5 B-4.0 U-1.5
TEXAS/ 97/ T48.6 B47.4 U4.0/ T52.2 B46.3 U1.5/ T+3.6 B-1.1 U-2.5
UTAH/ 88/ T51.9 B42.1 U6.0/ T58.7 B37.2 U4.1/ T+6.8 B-4.9 U-1.9
VERMONT/ 95/ B66.5 T27.8 U5.7/ B64.9 T31.7 U3.4/ B-1.6 T+3.9 U-2.3
VIRGINIA/ 99/ B53.7 T41.9 U4.4/ B54.0 T44.4 U1.6/ B+0.3 T+2.5 U-2.8
WASHINGTON/ 96/ B59.4 T36.4 U4.2/ B58.8 T38.7 U2.5/ B-0.6 T+2.3 U-1.7
W. VIRGINIA/ 99/ T62.1 B33.5 U4.4/ T68.2 B30.0 U1.8/ T+6.1 B-3.5 U-2.6
WISCONSIN/ 99/ B52.1 T43.7 U4.2/ B49.4 T48.8 U1.8/ B-2.7 T+5.1 U-2.4
WYOMING/ 99/ T62.3 B30.8 U6.9/ T69.9 B26.6 U3.5/ T+7.6 B-4.2 U-3.4
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