Where did all the "new" voters come from?

[kentuck]

There was not a great deviation from the total votes of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama but this year, the voting totals shot up like a rocket.

In 2016, Hillary and Trump together garnered about 132 million votes.

In 2020, it looks like the final vote tally will be about 150-155 million votes. That is about 20 million votes more than were cast in 2016.

Where did they come from? In my opinion, it was mostly from young voters, who up til this election, had not been very involved in politics. Whatever is said about Trump, he was able to get people out to vote - on both sides.

At first glance it appears that the Democrats were able to get about 10 million more votes in this election and the Republicans were able to garner about 8 million more voters than in 2016.

An outstanding question may be, which Party will be able to keep these voters in the flock?

Were many of the Republican voters just following the cult of personality?

The future will tell.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

1. Two words

George Floyd.

I think that incident inspired many young people-and others- to be involved this year.

[murielm99]

2. I would say Kamala Harris, too.

Her inclusion has energized so many young women. It has energized young black women.

She is an accomplished, shining example. I love her!

[Just_Vote_Dem]

8. That's a good point

She may be the candidate in 2024!

[Maeve]

3. I saw a lot of new voters in my precinct

Mostly young, not very involved previously, some voting just in the presidential race, but many with voting guides to make sure which party they were voting for.

Turn out of registered voters is lousy most years; Americans are "don't shows" at the polls. This year? Yeah, a lot more motivation. Some were "stick it to the libs" types, but I also saw more POC than I knew were in the area.

[arlyellowdog]

4. Tiktok generation

The young people I know are a bit annoyed (although they don’t pay that much attention to old media) that Biden/Harris was their revolution. It was the efforts of many young organizers and AOC. Biden/Harris has to give them what they want, climate action, green jobs. I am frustrated with the out of date “rust belt” analysis. Come to Philly. Come to Pittsburgh. See what is happening. Once you get off the freeway, the revitalized towns with Biden signs. Obviously, the African American community gets the backbone credit, but as for new voters, look at who is dancing in the streets.

[patricia92243]

5. Mail-in voting made people vote that were not willing to stand in line

for hours. It should be the way election are always done in the future - with a little tweaking.

[JI7]

7. This plus people aren't doing much else because of the pandemic

[moose65]

24. Mail-in voting....

Vote by mail used to be dominated by Republicans, because more older voters used it. In NC, there were 191,000 mail-in ballots accepted in 2016. This year, there were 995,000.

In some states, once you vote by mail, you get on a list to automatically receive your ballots in the mail in the future. I think people who used it for the first time this year may decide that they like that method. No standing in line, no exposure to electioneering outside the polling place, no struggle to find parking or public transportation. Plus, it gives you a chance to really research all of the candidates before marking your ballot.

[Sherman A1]

6. There is never just one answer

It was a combination of GOTV efforts, Trump criminally bungling the pandemic, economic inequities, a good Democratic primary season with some great candidates that came together with a winning team & strategy, George Floyd and the many other cases exposing the inequities in the criminal justice system and likely many more things than I could quickly list.

[babylonsister]

17. GOTV efforts were outstanding this year.

From commercials to mailings to postings on social media, I was amazed at how many different orgs were involved. It surely made a difference. I'm in FL, so maybe it was over-the-top here, but still very noticeable.

[moose65]

23. I noticed that, too

There were multiple GOTV methods used. I got texts from several different organizations. I saw ads on TV - not political candidate ads, but general ads that encouraged people to vote.

I saw posters with GOTV information, along with phone numbers to call for info and QR codes to scan. I saw signs and billboards on my way to work that encouraged voting (and I live in a relatively small town, although it has a university in it).

I think that I saw more GOTV information than ever before, which is great. May it continue in the future.

[bdamomma]

9. 1st time

young voters.

[phylny]

10. My neighbor does opposition strategy and advertising for Democrats

and she said millennials and younger overwhelmingly supported Biden/Harris. Bodes well for our future.

[kentuck]

11. It's about time for the Baby Boomers to hand off the baton to the new generation.

[samnsara]

13. heeeeey they gotta earn it first ;)

[phylny]

14. The other interesting thing she said

is that Boomers and Millennials have a ton of shared experiences/similar generational traumas and they’re working on how to bring those groups together as a larger political force.

[kentuck]

20. They are an independent group, in my opinion.

They do not have really close ties to any Party but they just felt the necessity to vote in this election, and they went primarily Democratic.

[samnsara]

12. im sure it was the mail in ballots..

..even tho i think most ppl this year used the drop boxes....

[BeyondGeography]

15. The suburbs...Biden did better than HRC in 373 suburban counties

On average, Mr. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance in these 373 suburban counties around the country by about 4.6 percentage points as of Saturday evening, a margin that could change modestly with counting still underway (that average weights each county by population). In Georgia, the shift has been more than eight points. In Michigan and Wisconsin, it was about three points.

Nationally, these suburban counties were the places where vote margins changed the most from 2016. Mr. Trump improved his margins in counties outside metropolitan areas, but by less than a point.

... The suburban backlash has been most clear across the Atlanta region, where a surge of votes helped push the state into Mr. Biden’s column going into the weekend. More than a dozen suburban Atlanta counties moved toward Mr. Biden, who made gains even deep into the exurbs. In many counties around the region, he outperformed Mrs. Clinton by more than 10 points.

Close-in Cobb County, which voted handily for Mitt Romney in 2012 — and barely for Mrs. Clinton four years ago — appears solidly Democratic this year, even in local races. In Forsyth County, on the exurban fringe, Mr. Biden won only about 33 percent of the vote, but that constitutes a significant improvement from Mrs. Clinton’s 24 percent. In Forsyth and adjacent Cherokee County, Mr. Biden won the largest share of the vote a Democratic presidential candidate has recorded since Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Georgia’s emergence as a potential blue state this year doesn’t mean that Mr. Biden won white college graduates across the state; polling ahead of the election suggested he was unlikely to. But by improving his performance with that group across the suburbs, and by picking up even modest gains in more exurban counties, that can be enough to build a winning coalition in Georgia alongside the state’s large and strongly Democratic African-American population. That is particularly true given strong turnout this year in Fulton and DeKalb Counties in the heart of the Atlanta region.

In Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden benefited from gains in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia suburbs, along with swings in much of the eastern half of the state. In Michigan, he broadened his advantage in Oakland County, outside Detroit.

In Wisconsin, Mr. Trump still won each of the three traditionally conservative suburban counties that surround Milwaukee: Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha Counties. But all three favored Mr. Trump by less than they did four years ago, a key shift in a state Mr. Biden won by only about 20,500 votes.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/06/upshot/suburbs-shifted-left-president.html

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

16. I'm sure there were a fair amount of older voters

who have been unengaged up until now. I know those people exist.

[Autumn]

18. The party that gets those voters in their flock will be the party that reaches out and

responds to their needs and issues. Which one that will be remains to be seen.

[spanone]

19. The greatest number came out to remove trump. The destruction of our Democracy is a huge incentive.

[Laelth]

21. A lot of non-voters registered and voted for the first time.

Many of them voted Republican. Trump inspired people on both sides to vote. Mercifully, most of us are sane.

-Laelth

[SmartVoter22]

22. The 'actual model voter' will be known in time

The actual model voter for this election will be known, but not until the entire vote record is known, that the census data ( from 2010) is applied and then compared to the 2020 Census results which is next year.

Only then will the analysts be able to create a voter model that gives us that 'perfect average voter's '...
...Age
...Gender
...Urban vs Rural
...Education
...other misc demographic info

Who that voter is, only helps campaigns develop marketing plans.
What is the issue that new voter model thinks is most important.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

25. Expanded voter access.