Why is Biden down to 88 cents on Predictit? I don't bet, but isn't that free money?

[Bleacher Creature]

I assume that the number is dropping because Trump fans are putting down new money on their cult leader. If that's the case, isn't betting on Biden now a guaranteed way to profit at the expense of literally the worst people in the world?

[PTWB]

1. Yes.

[PatSeg]

2. I was wondering the same thing

[RAB910]

3. In stocks you look at volume and price for the full picture

at this point, I doubt there is all that much action on an election that has already been called

[marylandblue]

4. Predictit is estimating that Trump has a 12 per cent chance of blowing up the EC and winning.

That should scare you, even if he fails.

[TwilightZone]

5. No, it shouldn't.

There's no action on the markets so at this point, it's meaningless.

[marylandblue]

9. Biden should be at 99 cents at this point, even if there is no action.

The fact that people see a path for Trump to win is disturbing. I see the path too, though I don't think it will happen. It bothers me that others see it, even if it's just a few crackpots like me.

[mr_lebowski]

6. Bookies profit model is based on the 'vig' or fee for placing the bet ...

They adjust odds/payouts/spreads with the goal of getting even amounts of money on both sides. That way it's profit w/o the risk.

If a significant amount of $ came in for Biden in response, they'd lower the 'odds'.

[obamanut2012]

11. It's because of the vig

Period.

[marylandblue]

12. Certain winners always go to 99 cents. They have a vig too.

[Dem2]

7. Freepers are manipulating it

There was a post here last night where someone went to Freeperland and noted they were pouring money into a Rump win.

It's sad, but funny. I have screen shots somewhere showing that the odds were better Friday than they are today, which is an indication of their sad bets.

[Turin_C3PO]

8. If I had any money, I'd take that bet.

These idiots putting money on Trump are delusional.

[aeromanKC]

10. Taking MAGAt money is fun!!

You can get 82-84 Trump NO Shares in GA this morning. Meanwhile Biden maintains a +10,000 and growing vote lead there.

[David__77]

13. A really crazy one even for there is the Nevada market.

It's at $ 0.88 now. Wild.

[qdouble]

14. Just delusional Republicans wasting their money.

Let them.

[radius777]

15. Betting markets do lean right

as participants tend to be white, older and RW.

PredictIt (which has betting limts, thus not as serious a market) has Biden at 88. Betfair (more serious betting) has Biden at 92.

Clearly there is a scenario under which Trump blows up the process, which the markets are pricing in, but it is far smaller than 12 or even 8 percent.

edit: just checked PredictIt boards and RWers are going on about some conspiracy theory about Wisconsin they read on the far right site Gateway Pundit. They think it will give Trump 19k votes. Twitter flagged it as unsubstantiated. This 'news' likely is what they're freaked out about. Gateway Pundit was one of the sites also claiming the Hunter laptop had pics that would 'destroy' Biden and he would have to drop out before the last debate, lol.