Exactly what Senate seats were we supposed to win?

[keepthemhonestO]

I see the media bashing us and us bashing ourselves that we didn't take the Senate but what seats did we have a chance in?

Doug Jones was originally voted in by special election in a red district, it would have been great to hold that but again it's a red district.

Susan Collins been there forever

Murkowski a red state we were supposed to flip that?

Mitch or Lindsey? No that wasn't happening.

All I know is in Georgia we have 2 Senate seats here and it will be an uphill battle to get those seats so Mitch is not in charge. We need everyone to volunteer and write postcards where ever they can.... War is on!

[Turin_C3PO]

1. We won the two seats

that were expected and lost the seat that was expected. The others that might have flipped largely favored us but we never had a big lead in the polls.

[keepthemhonestO]

6. Yeah I saw we

won our blue districts which is great, but they made it sound like it was going to be some giant change in the Senate. Now they are bashing us that it wasn't as big as the media projected it would be, it ticks me off.

[Bettie]

55. Iowa is filled with moronic mouth-breathers

I need to get out of this state.

Joni is awful, but they adore her for her slavish devotion to the Orange Anus.

[Turin_C3PO]

57. I hear you.

New Mexico is a blue state but I live in one of the districts where Dems lost a House seat to a Repub. I’m now represented by the bigoted, corrupt, Yvette Herrel. I want to move to a more uniformly blue area such as Vermont but I don’t have the money required to make the move.

[Rice4VP]

2. NC and Maine

[keepthemhonestO]

10. I mean Collins is flakey

and all but she's been there forever some people are loyal to their annoying Senators.

We should have know Lindsay would be voted back in, I wrote postcards for Harrison and donated when I saw that idiot speak during the Supreme court Nominee hearings.

[exboyfil]

3. Cunningham if he had kept it in his pants

Collins because we couldn't believe such a feckless individual could be reelected, but we were wrong.

Ernst but we decided to run a lightweight against her instead of a candidate with an impressive resume.

and the two Georgia seats.

[keepthemhonestO]

12. That is so crazy

I didn't hear about the sexting incident until after the election was over, somehow I missed that one.

I get so mad when dems choose a weak candidate, I don't get it!

[exboyfil]

15. Our candidate in Iowa Greenfield is a nice woman

but I thought a very weak candidate. We had the opportunity to run Admiral Franken who had experience as a legislative fellow for Ted Kennedy along with his military experience that included a billet in Congressional Affairs. Greenfield won the primary.

[keepthemhonestO]

17. That's too bad

I wonder if he would have done better? Crap

[JanMichael]

45. Agreed on Cunningham. He should be forever shunned by NC Dems.

He is literally too stupid to be allowed around power ever again. He had that race won (while polls/surveys were bad he was up by around 10 points two weeks before the election) until his creepy starched white shirts texts started creeping out into the light. Then it was ad after ad after dems are sleazy ads. I bet it also cost Biden/Harris some votes.

I hope that a military tribunal does whatever they can do regarding his behavior as a superior officer banging a disabled vets wife. Waterboard him. Toss him into a well. Take his pension away.

I cannot stand him.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. North Carolina felt like the best bet to flip outside what flipped. And that was it.

Maine was a long-shot. As was Iowa.

Anyone who really thought we'd win in South Carolina was delusional. It's South Carolina.

These were not favorable seats, outside ME, AZ & NC, for Democrats. Even Georgia is a tough state as they haven't elected a Democratic senator since Zell Miller.

It was always going to be an uphill battle to win a majority.

[Turin_C3PO]

9. Yes but Maine still kinda surprised me.

Weren't we up in the polls a fair amount rather consistently? I don't have the data in front of me so I'm not sure. The loss in North Carolina was a shame. Stupid Cunningham should never have put his name in the hat given his sordid history. Only Republicans are forgiven for moral failings, never Democrats.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Polls had a huge amount of undecideds.

But to be honest, I think her vote against ACB saved her seat.

[keepthemhonestO]

19. yep

only can get away with that, as I saw someone wrote here yesterday Democrats have to be perfect or we eat our own.

[keepthemhonestO]

13. good points

I live in Georgia and we do have new voting machines here as of this year with a paper print out that is auditable. Maybe that is making the difference too. I see this January run off as an uphill battle that I am willing to fight.

I will be writing postcards at least my current group I use didn't start writing them though if anyone has a better group, I would like to get started STAT!

[exboyfil]

18. And several someones are going to be counting all 5 million of those ballots

I wonder what they would be saying if Clinton had demanded they hand count all five million of the Michigan ballots. Just because you have the legal right to request something, doesn't mean you should do it.

[keepthemhonestO]

20. so true

I am just glad we have a paper ballot something that can be double checked on paper. I never trusted the Diebold machines I heard too many back door ways of switching the votes and no one would be the wiser.

[exboyfil]

21. It is a painful experience for Georgia

but I think it will be a useful check on the technology. It is called for in the law of the state so I don't have an issue.

I still wonder why Stein couldn't get a hand recount in one voting district in Wisconsin (I think).

[keepthemhonestO]

28. oh interesting

was that in 2016 I presume?

I will be very anxious to see if we can get these kind of results ever again in Georgia assuming we can get people out to vote again.

[LisaL]

41. We could have picked North Carolina, but our candidate turned out to be a

"sexter."

[exboyfil]

47. Seems Cunningham was interested in other types of flips

Sorry I couldn't resist.

[LisaL]

49. There was a reason he reminded quite a few people of Edwards.

NT

[crickets]

62. It's not that Graham won over Harrison in SC that disturbs me so much,

though the loss was disappointing. It was a long shot, and as close as he got, Jaime was never locked in for a win. What bothers me is the margin. It was over 10 points and that just seems way overdone. Meh, maybe it's just sour grapes on my part, but I thought Graham's win would be more of a squeaker.

[SomedayKindaLove]

5. It seems all Cunningham had to do was zip it

And we’d be going into these special senate elections 49-49

[Demsrule86]

8. I think he would have lost anyway.

It is hard to get rid of an incumbent Senator.

[cwydro]

74. He was leading in the polls even after the scandal, but I think it hurt him in the end.

I think he’d have won if not for that. There were some vicious ads about him in the closing days.

[keepthemhonestO]

14. yeah

that shit doesn't help

[Demsrule86]

7. The Senate was always a long shot...we needed to win in red and more red than purple states.

[keepthemhonestO]

16. Right

so why was the media giving the impression we were going to have a tsunami on that? Now they sit here and bash us that we didn't succeed in their unrealistic prediction.

I had two great nights of sleep right after the election and now I wake up with nightmares of Mitch controlling our new President just like he did Obama!!! I hate that man, we need these two Georgia seats it's our last hope but it's a giant uphill battle.

[DeminPennswoods]

23. Dems did have a tsunami

But Trumpists came out of the woodwork to vote for him, too. Plus, there were also a lot of Rs who hated Trump and voted for Biden, but voted for Rs downballot.

[keepthemhonestO]

26. I find it odd

though that they always come out in equal and exact opposite to our Tsunami!

There was a poster here from a lightyears ago "TruthIsAll" I can't wait to see his full take on this when all the votes have been counted. Some of these states like Kentucky are refusing to change their voting systems. Here is his website https://tdmsresearch.com/

[Ferrets are Cool]

22. Media must have SOMETHING to talk about.

They have to fill 24 hours a day. Many times it's done with bullshit.

[keepthemhonestO]

24. yeah I guess

I feel like I am in an abusive relationship with them, we are the battered housewives that can do nothing right.

We still have the house and we won the Presidency and they are saying "what is wrong with the Democratic message?" "Why are they losing" especially Joe on morning Joe I can hear him saying it but many others. WTF?

[Ferrets are Cool]

59. Using that analogy, I packed up my things and walked out long ago

Since KO left the network, I VERY seldom watch a minute of it. There are other ways to get real news.

[keepthemhonestO]

60. True enough

I may need to rethink watching them although there are a number of hosts I still like, Joe isn't one of them.

I remember those days of KO during the Bush years, that was great to have him on to have a little bit of truth stream through.

[BlueInPhilly]

25. I m very bullish on GA

Loefler was an appointee and a crook. Warnock was already ahead in the GE.

Ossof creamed Perdue in the debate, there were other candidates muddling the field, and without the noise, the 2 cannot be more different.

ACA and CoVid issues, Stacey Abrams on our side, and the spectacle of McConnell.

GA just went blue this year! Support both candidates as much as you can.

[keepthemhonestO]

29. It will

be interesting to see especially with Loefler's sketchy trade dealings, I would like to see some advertisements about this. When I am on youtube I just see ads bashing Ossoff!

Right I hope Stacey can continue to help GOTFMV!!

I live here in Georgia and will definitely participate in this war on Mitch controlling the Senate again.

[edhopper]

27. Collins and Tillis were behind in the polls

by much more than the MOE.
Graham and Ernst were tied, but those polls were also way off.

[keepthemhonestO]

31. I wonder about these polls

I wonder what kind of machines they are voting on? In Oregon they vote by mail and have a small margin of error. I am also curious how Minnesota votes as they have a miniscule margin of error.

Check out an old DU member "truthisall" this is his website
https://tdmsresearch.com/

[edhopper]

34. Many of us

are questioning as well.

[exboyfil]

36. The last Des Moines Register poll had Greenfield down

as well as Biden by 6+%. This board erupted that this was wrong. Turned out it was spot on.

[edhopper]

42. Thanks

[Drunken Irishman]

44. Tillis was not behind by much more than the MOE.

The final average had him down about three, right within the MOE of most polls.

[Celerity]

30. It was very poor recruiting by Schumer and Cortez Masto, we had only 3 of 13 remotely flappable

races where our best candidates ran.

I had us losing Jones, but flipping 6 (so a 52-48 majority)

CO, AZ, MT, and

IA, NC, ME all 3 had weak candidates and it hurt us badly

IF Sibelius had run, we had a great chance at KS (see below)

and I was split on GA Regular (and Ossoff can still win it)


I warned for ages that Schumer and Cortez Masto did a poor, poor recruiting job, and it ended up burning us far harder than I had imagined it would

The 3 where we did run the best, we won two of three, CO and AZ, and lost in MT, partial due to Bullock being cash starved due and unable to counter 50m in late RW adverts ludicrously calling him a commie, as people pissed away over 300 million on three fantasyland races, TX and KY and SC, some of which should have went to aid Bullock, who was left helpless after leading for a good chunk of the race, and was an extremely popular 2 term governor in a red, red state. Until the last 2 or 3 weeks, I thought he would win. Gutted he did not. I maxed out to his campaign. Daines is moronic POS, one of the 5 least intelligent Senators, along with Ernst, Hyde-Smith, Ron Johnson, and Blackburn. All 5 are low, low intellect cretins.

the other 10

NC (Foxx, Stein, and especially Jeff Jackson, all far better than Cunningham, even without the sexting scandal)
GA Reg (Stacey Abrams or Sally Yates) we still may win and Abrams did huge lifting in other ways, so not irate with her at all
GA Spec (Abrams or Yates) we still may win, let's all hope so
IA (Vilsack (very popular 2 term governor and also 8 years as US Sec of Agriculture) or Cindy Axne would have been better than the weak Greenfield)
ME (Rice would have been far better than Gideon, same for Hannah Pingree, Chellie Pingree's daughter and also the ex speaker of the Maine House, the youngest one ever, and also better would have been US Dem House rep Jared Golden from ME-2, who won re-election in a district Trump carried again with ease. All three would have taken out Collins IMHO. Wild card. Stephen King, who was thinking about it, and decided not to. Also Chellie Pingree herself.)
TN (Open seat, Tim McGraw has now twice, in 2018, when he likely would have won, and then 2020 turned down OPEN seat races after promising he would run, so angry at him, especially for 2018, Blackburn was a nutter and with the Blue Wave McGraw would have taken her out IMHO, instead we ran the fossil re-tread Bredesen, who blue himself up the first month of the campaign by saying he would have supported and voted for the drunky-rapey Kavanaugh, the exact same thing McGrath did too, to disastrous effect for both of them)
KS (Open seat Sibelius was not only the only Dem who could have won, she likely would have won, it was the opinion of the major Kansas newspapers, even though RWNJ Kobach lost the primary, Marshall was weak. Very mad at her for refusing to run)

and the three reaches

AK (ex US Senator Begich refused to run, and we did not even field a candidate, instead indie Al Gross ran)
TX (Beto looked at Cornyn and passed, Hegar was weak)
KY (Andy Beshear would have been best, but he ran and won Governor. Booker would have been stronger than McGrath IMHO, and if the primary was 2 to 4 weeks later, he who have beaten her, she bollocks it from the start by saying she would have supported and voted for Kavanaugh, smdh. Adkins, Conway, and Steve Beshear (Andy's father and an ex governor would have done better as well, IMHO)

[exboyfil]

33. IA - We might have lost Axne's seat as well

I would have gone with Admiral Franken, but he threw his hat into the ring too late. Vilsack would have definitely been better.

[Celerity]

46. yes, Axne was sort of a toss-in on my part (not that I do not rate her), deffo Vilsack or Franken

it would have reallllly sucked to have lost her seat

IF we had lost her, and IF the remaining closest races go shit for us (no way all do, but the majority, unfortunate will)), we could have been staring at a 219-216 bare majority

[In It to Win It]

37. I had us losing Jones but gaining 4. CO, AZ, ME, NC

I thought IA was a ‘possible’ but a distant possible. I thought the candidate we had in IA was a good candidate.

I never thought we were winning in MT.

I was confident in CO and AZ with ME and NC being strong possibles.

I knew it was gonna be difficult to unseat Collins in Maine because she always seems to win even win Democrats are strong in Maine. I thought Biden would give the Dem candidate a boost down ballot and help her get over the top, but that clearly did not work out.

[keepthemhonestO]

52. Celerity that is pretty

in depth thank you for that. Why they hell do strong candidates not get the funds they need to help them win? There was so much money out there, I am frugal and I even donated to a bunch of candidates, I wish I hadn't wasted my money on few and had put it to good use on some who had a better chance. Oh well, hind site is 20/20.

[Celerity]

54. I have been posting on this since mid 2019, saw it comig from a mile away, but I still

Last edited Wed Nov 11, 2020, 06:27 PM - Edit history (1)

thought the ones I listed would pull it out

beside myself at some who turned down great chances

I have been in a funk ever since the Senate results came i, as I already can see what will happen with Moscow Mitch back in the saddle, and even if we pull off 2 miracles and win the two GA runoffs, Manchin and Sinema (maybe Hickenlooper or more) will block so much vitally needed programmes and initiatives

Moscow will go full bore destroyer mode from January 3rd on, he will block Biden on most everything of import

the Rethuggies are a true death cult, and will rip the nation apart and kill millions (via destruction of the social safety net and healthcare system, etc) to keep power

We are also semi fucked in the House now too

I fear we will end up at a level where just 4, 5, or 6 defections will kill anything

[keepthemhonestO]

56. Exactly

I had a few great nights of sleep after the win and now I wake up with nightmares about Mitch we need to do everything we can with just Georgia left.

It is so depressing but somehow I am going to get some energy to war on Mitch with these two senate races.

[In It to Win It]

32. CO, AZ, ME, NC... and a fifth somewhere to make up for Doug Jones

Those were supposedly the most flippable seats for Democrats.

The scenario was always this:

4 seats + VP = assuming we lost Alabama but Joe Biden wins

5 seats = Joe Biden loses and we lose Doug Jones in Alabama. If this was the case, GA would have been next in line to add to the list.

For the states that had senate elections, most of them were safe territory for Dems and Republicans. It was always unlikely we would get a win in Kentucky or South Carolina and any other deep red state.

[BumRushDaShow]

35. I think MT

with Steve Bullock, who is currently governor, so he had already been shown to win a state-wide office before. That loss was sortof a shame.

[In It to Win It]

40. You're right! I forgot about MT but truthfully, I never thought we would win in MT

[BumRushDaShow]

48. I don't know why not?

It's weird but they are sortof like PA with the rotating of both parties is Senators and Governors and Bullock is a 2-term Democratic Governor there and had previously been state AG.

Hell, the bain of our bain Max Baucus was a Senator from Montana!



I think this year in some of these states, there was a more extreme partisan divide going on so the GOP base was more riled up than usual.

[Celerity]

50. Bullock was doing well until he got buried with 50m USD plus RW dark pool money slamming him

(RIDICULOUSLY) as a socialist/commie in the last 2, 3 weeks. he did not have the cash to counter he should have had, as it was pissed away elsewhere on fantasyland races

[Ace Rothstein]

38. North Carolina and Maine

Maine is a fairly blue state but Gideon got beat handily there. Cunningham himself was likely the problem in North Carolina. Iowa and Montana were supposed toss ups that ended up not being close.

The election was pretty much a disaster outside of defeating Trump.

[BumRushDaShow]

51. "The election was pretty much a disaster outside of defeating Trump"

We went from having 2 Republican Senators in 2018 to having 2 Democratic Senators in 2020 out of the state of Arizona, which also has 11 electoral votes! That in itself is remarkable.

[Upthevibe]

39. keepthemhonestO-Senate seats I thought we'd flip....

I think I'm naive. I was tracking them on a regular basis. I'll get back to this post.

[keepthemhonestO]

53. ok I'll watch for it.

thanks

[Polybius]

58. Murkowski wasn't running this year

We were near certain to win Colorado, Arizona (and we did win both), NC, and Maine. Out of these 4, the only one we had a chance at losing was NC, because of the sexting.

[keepthemhonestO]

63. oh right

My head is spinning with all of these faces/ names and states. LOL

Ok it is so strange that they had Collins behind when she's been there forever, that is Maine right? Now we have a huge pressure to get these two here in Georgia and I love to be optimistic but it's still a red state. I hope we can do this.

[dsc]

61. Both Maine and NC should have been won

Maine went overwhelmingly for Biden and there is no way Collins should have been able to get to 50%. Tillis was, and still is, an utterly unpopular politician in a state that our governor (a Dem) won by 5. Cunningham's affair and frankly poorly run campaign sealed his fate. I can't speak to what happened in Maine.

[keepthemhonestO]

64. right and wasn't it

North Carolina that had major problems and had to redo an election in 2018? Due to a Republican candidate and fraud, which I think he should have been kicked off the ballot all together. I don't see where those major shenanigans would just go away suddenly.

They were trying to oppress the vote there then too.

[dsc]

65. actually they did kick the candidate off the ballot so they got to run a cleaner candidate

and win the race.

[keepthemhonestO]

67. Oh did they?

Oh ok thanks for that info. Crazy their party won after a large cheating scandal and it just seems to go away.

[dsc]

69. yeah it worked like this

the guy who cheated and barely won having cheated was permitted to withdraw and the race was rerun thanks to a law passed by the general assembly once the cheating became apparent that permitted him to withdraw. Otherwise they would have been stuck with him.

[keepthemhonestO]

70. yep

leave it to the repukes! cheat and win and get rewarded by the voters for it.

[Act_of_Reparation]

66. I don't know about "bashing", but there is a problem with how we analyzed these campaigns.

The data suggested we were likely to win. We did not. So there was a problem with the data, or more specifically how the data was collected.

This isn't bashing. This is constructive criticism. We need accurate information to plan our campaigns.

[keepthemhonestO]

68. It never used

to be a problem collecting data prior to electronic voting systems. First they started with the shy Bush voters now it's the shy trump voters, no that's not a thing. We are the shy ones, we are the ones that are trying to get along, if anyone was going to be shy about a vote it would be us.

Many well respected countries do not use electronic voting systems, they vote on paper and they are transparent about how they are counted.

Here is a website from an Old Duer ThruthIsAll, notice Oregon votes by mail and their error is negligible https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/

[Act_of_Reparation]

73. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

It never used to be a problem before Trent Reznor cut his hair. It doesn't mean the two are related.

There are two major problems with polling as it stands: 1) There is a statistically significant segment of the population that straight up won't answer phone calls from unrecognized numbers (I am one of them), and 2) There is a statistically significant segment of the population that hates the media and is therefore unlikely to respond to polls, specifically.

[keepthemhonestO]

75. Completely

disagree that the two aren't related. We used to be able to win races prior to electronic voting also. Georgia actually voted for Democrats prior to electronic voting, we actually have new machines this year that print out a ballot that can be audited as well in addition to the absentee I believe that's how we won.

[Act_of_Reparation]

76. Yeah, that's fascinating.

[former9thward]

71. There were predictions that we would have 60 seats.

By various pollsters quoted on this site as "A+ rated". Just a sample:

At this point, I’ve identified 13 Republican-held seats that conceivably fall: Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia (2), Kentucky, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. That would get the Democrats to 60 seats if Doug Jones wins reelection in Alabama, and 59 if he does not.


https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/03/20/could-the-democrats-win-a-filibuster-proof-senate-majority/

[keepthemhonestO]

72. In hindsite

that is insanity of course. I guess they were going off how we did with the house races in 2018. Oh well, lick our wounds and try to get these two Georgia races won. I live here and it's going to be very hard, despite the optics of us just turning Georgia blue. Wish us lots and lots of luck and if you have time to sign up for texting or postcards come join the war on Mitch!