Trump won the last dump from Maricopa by 55% margin.

[triron]

Now needs over 76% of remaining votes.

[VMA131Marine]

1. He needs nearly 70% of the 40,000 or so ballots that remain

He actually has to do better than that because over half of what are left are provisional ballots and they won’t all count.

[LisaL]

5. Even assuming all ballots get counted, there is going to be less than 40k remaining.

Assuming board of elections reporting it's accurately, there is only ~25000 ballots remaining.
https://www.arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

[VMA131Marine]

14. They must have updated after the last time I looked at the numbers

Trump’s toast: he needs about 77% of what’s left.

[LisaL]

18. Yes, because large number of Maricopa ballots (13k) just got counted.

NT

[triron]

22. Less than 25K of which 10K are in Pima cty.

It's over and it's Biden's. eos

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. the margin is 9% - 53-44.

[mr_lebowski]

8. Thanks for your precision good sir ...

How many was it?

What's the vote margin now?

[NRaleighLiberal]

21. info

Maricopa county has posted 13,143 ballots.
Breakdown:
Biden: 5,826 (44.3%)
Trump: 7,019 (53.4%)

Biden leads Trump in Arizona by 11,635 votes.

[mr_lebowski]

23. and there's less than 6K non-provisionals left ...

and traditionally provisionals favor Democrats. Maybe not this time but it's VERY unlikely he makes up the difference with them.

[mr_lebowski]

3. How many was it? Any other details?

If that was big enough, it's absolutely over.

[LeftInTX]

7. This is what's left:

Biden's lead is 11,635

Link to tweet

/photo/1

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

[brush]

15. It's over then if they're in Pima. It's blue. trump is toast.

[mr_lebowski]

20. The advantage in Pima is entirely in provisionals ... many if not most could be tossed ...

Wish I knew at what rate they've been getting tossed thus far.

Anyways he looks toast even w/o those 10K.

[brush]

24. Yep, he needs 78% of those 25k ballots. That's not happening.

[mr_lebowski]

17. I hope our side is on top of the signature verification/notification stuff ...

Democrats should be knocking on doors urging their voters to get down and provide the needed verification.

It's not really right to say 'most' are from Pima, never know how many provisionals will 'count', but ... still looks very promising.

[brush]

25. He needs 78% of the 25k ballots. He hasn't gotten the high...

a percentage in any previous ballot dumps I've seen.

It's over.

[mr_lebowski]

27. I thoroughly agree :) nt

[greenjar_01]

28. It's a rock and a hard place for Trump

The fewer votes that count, the more share he needs of the others, and it's not like he's taking down the Maricopa ballots in the 80%s. Throw out the Pima provisionals, and he'd have to take literally every other vote in the state.

[triron]

9. 13K

[LisaL]

10. Slightly under 25k of ballots remain per board of elections.

NT

[triron]

19. 10K or 40% are in Pima cty (very liberal).

[Demsrule86]

4. Stick a fork in him...he is done in Arizona...and I just read here that his legal

team asked to be removed from the Arizona lawsuit.

[Vivienne235729]

12. That's good to know. Makes me feel a little better.

[KentuckyWoman]

6. But ... fraud.

We knew he'd pull this but .. sheesh.

[greenjar_01]

11. Where are you getting what's left?

Seems like its 15,000 in Maricopa; 6,000 untabulated provisionals in Pima, maybe 3500 in each of Yuma and Cochise, and a few stragglers elsewhere. 28,000 left?

Also, break even on 40,000 would require 63%.

[Alhena]

13. Here's a link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eml8EeWU0AAhz8G?format=png&name=medium

[LisaL]

16. Board of elections website reports under 25 k of ballots remaining.

NT

[greenjar_01]

26. Even a favorable split of those for Trump relative to other votes in the counties

I think leaves Biden with between 8,000-9,800.

I'd guess Trump takes what's left by 1800 if all the provisionals come in, maybe a bit more if the Pima County provisionals are counted at a lower rate. I don't see any way clear for him to take the 17000-18000 of what's left that he would need.

[Hoyt]

29. Slow death for the worthless MFer.