Margin of discrepancy that favors trump

[keepthemhonestO]

https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/

I would be interested in hearing everyone's take on this information on the margin of error in the states where polling was done. This website is from an old DUer from the Bush years "TruthIsAll" that would relentlessly post about the election and he would be hounded by the trolls so eventually he left here.

It has been my life experience that when electronic voting machines came along that is when the exit polls starting "not working" and there were suddenly must have been "shy Bush voters" and now "shy Trumpers."

Read that page and take that in oh and don't forget to compare who we thought was legit set to win in the Senate but couldn't. I would love for Theodore to evaluate who has the weakest voting machines? Kentucky? with the margin of error discrepancy.

[triron]

1. I don't buy the 'shy' Trump voter meme for a second. I call BS.

The deviation of actual vote count from Edison exit polls is concerning.
Used to be almost right on. What's changed??
I suspect some things but unless there were some deep cyber forensics done
(for one thing) no way of knowing. I suppose some of it could be explained
by late 'coming back to the party' swing.

[keepthemhonestO]

2. Exactly

I don't buy it either, I want open fair elections like the Dutch have.
When you're counting inside a machine and won't give out the codes then you're counting in secret. IMHO

[SheltieLover]

13. +1,000!

Totally agree!

Look at KY! Needs to be investigated!

We need paper ballots evrrywhere!

[keepthemhonestO]

27. yes and

they need to be hand counted like the Dutch do none of this machine counting bologna!

[GoCubsGo]

3. What do they say about all of the Republican voter supression and other cheating?

[keepthemhonestO]

4. Right

there are plenty of other Shenanigans that could/should be factored in also. Interesting how a Democratic State like NY, where I am originally from comes up there at the top now. That crazy rep from NY Stefanik got reelected also. Kentucky close behind and many of us wondering how the hell did Mitch get back in.

[GoCubsGo]

5. I don't wonder how Mitch got back in.

He basically controls the levers of power. Why would they give that up? He's their guy, after all, even if he doesn't do shit for them.

[keepthemhonestO]

8. yes they aren't giving up

the power at all, I don't think Kentucky people put him there. Who put him there? I would need to see inside the machines and see the algorithm they are using to count???

[BComplex]

6. TruthIsAll was one of my all time favorite DUers.

He was a great statistician that was practically a master when it came to seeing discrepancies in numbers.

He knew way back then how Karl Rove was flipping the voting tabulators, because of the way the numbers just never made sense.

[keepthemhonestO]

12. Yes mine too

He's one of the few I would watch what he posted, now you can check out his website!

[BComplex]

15. What is his website? Nevermind. I just saw it in the original post.

[Statistical]

7. Most states don't have EVM anymore. Even in states that have paper ballots Biden underperformed.

Now don't get me wrong EVM are stupid and dangerous and if we created a big bonfire and destroyed every EVM in the country tomorrow I would have zero issue with that. However because of the cost and problems and lack of reliability in EVM many states have moved away from them in the last decade. Even outside of the fraud aspect they just suck ass and cost a fortune. Even if they are nice and shiny year one by year five they are worn down unreliable pieces of garbage.

[keepthemhonestO]

14. What states

don't have electronic voting? We just changed from EVM to EVM with paper here in Georgia still it's EVM, right?? Lot's of states still have EVM including good old Kentucky!

[Statistical]

17. Unless Balletopedia is wrong Georgia has BMD.

That is a machine which marks the ballot. The ballot is what is counted. The machine doesn't record or tabulate anything.

https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_methods_and_equipment_by_state

Still it is possible ballopedia is wrong. Regardless most states like the overwhelming majority of states no longer use EVM. Biden underperformed in those states as well.

Some example would be: VA, ME, IA.

[keepthemhonestO]

19. sorry for my ignorance

but what is the difference between the two.

These last couple elections are the first time we are using them and I am at least happy with the outcome for the first time in 20 years. Diebold is what we were using, aside from the paper I thought they were the same. Something needs to configure a count inside this machine. I know most people who want free and fair elections don't want to use machines at all.

[BComplex]

16. Whew! That is totally not true!

Those tabulators you slide your paper ballot into to get it counted? You don't think they are "EVM's"? They are programmed.
They are programmed by we don't know who.
They are programmed to count votes on the ballots, and therefore, each candidate is programmed in, every election.

[Statistical]

18. If you are calling optical scanning machines EVM then fine.

I think definitions are helpful and calling optical scanners EVM makes it unclear what you mean.

Optical scanners have been used for 30+ years to count ballots. CA has 20 million voters. You aren't hand counting 20 million ballots.

Hand recounts routinely show no difference between optical scan count and hand count. Still we will get to see that in action. Georgia is doing a 100% hand recount of ballots. So if the optical scanners are cheating then Biden should improve by 5% in Georgia right? My prediction is the hand recount although insanely expensive and time consuming will show a negligible difference compared to the optical scan count.

Personally I have a huge issue with EVM. I have zero issue with 100% paper ballots which are optically scanned for speed with the option of a hand recount at the candidates expense.

[BComplex]

21. Ok. So optical scanners are totally non-programmable, much less by anyone with nefarious

intentions?

They are programmed to count votes electronically.

Programmed is the key word here.

[Statistical]

24. If you want to get rid of all optical scanners then I am not trying to change your mind.

I am just saying it is a lot clearer to say I want to get rid of all optical scanners and use 100% hand counts nationwide for 160M+ ballots.

Personally I have never seen any evidence that optical scanners are "rigged". They are supervised by bipartisan teams. They do tests of them before and after counting to verify accuracy. Every hand recount has closely matched optical scan count totals. I don't think hand counting 160M+ ballots is realistic. I don't think using optical scanners is a bad idea.

We do however have an interest test case coming up. The state of Georgia is doing a 100% hand recount of the entire state. If the optical scanners were rigged we should see a difference in the initial count (optical scanner) and the recount (hand counting) counts. I believe any difference is likely to be negligible.

I really am not trying to be argumentative I am just saying language helps. There are two separate but related issues:
a) how do we vote (should never be EVM under any circumstances)
b) how do we count the votes (personally I don't think optical scanners have to be outlawed but I am not saying you are wrong in your beliefs)

Even if we disagree on "b" I think we can both agree that on "a" EVM are an abomination. Right?

[keepthemhonestO]

28. Well said

Thank you for the polite discourse about this.
I am obviously no expert but I think when you look at these discrepancies here there is obviously something going on, right? Sorry I am at work so I don't have a ton of time but Georgia is going to hand recount here in 1 wk, we'll see how that goes time wise and how realistic it is. Let's ask the experts of course the republicans won't allow us to do across the board change, Mitch McConnell I am sure your are aware wouldn't allow them to change the machines in his state.

[Statistical]

30. Yeah I don't think GA will complete the recount in 6 days. It seems an impossible task.

I think it will be completed but it will take a lot longer than 6 days. Hand recounts are horribly slow. Even with huge numbers of people the rate a human can count ballots is a tiny fraction of an optical scanner. High speed optical scanners can do 20,000+ ballots per hour and if you have a lot of ballots you can use multiple machines working in parallel. The high speed scanners can can count >99% of the ballots and kick out the 1% or so which can't be read. That 1% can then be processed by humans. How many humans would it take to achieve the same counting speed? I don't know but I assume a lot.

Now they are only recounting the Presidential race (I think) so that means just separating all the valid ballots into piles and counting the piles but it is still going to be slow. I think they will finish before the federal Dec 6th deadline but I don't see how they are going to meet the state deadline of Nov 20th.

[keepthemhonestO]

31. all of that

makes sense, I am sure it won't be certified by the 20th as expected.

[keepthemhonestO]

20. That's what I was

thinking too.

[Happy Hoosier]

9. Cohn and Silver are starting to look at this.

Polls consist of two elements, sample and model. Relatively small errors in either or both can be SEEN as big misses when they aren't, really. People expect polling to be VERY accurate. But MOSTLY the polls hit within their MOE.

BUT, the errors were in a consistent direction, which DOES mean there was likely a problem in the sample or model. It's reasonably easy to check if the model works. Both Silver and Cohn seem to think there is a sample problem, at least in some states. MAYBE due to response rates. That might be a tough nut to crack if it's not consistent.

[keepthemhonestO]

29. oh sorry I missed this earlier

I hadn't seen that about silver, Do you mean Jennifer Cohn? I will check it out, something just isn't right for it to always lean in one direction. That is what TIA always used to point out, the likely hood of that happening was like winning the lottery. I loved his posts and hated when he left here. That was when I was just "keepthemhonest" but I got locked out of that one with an old work email.

[MadLinguist]

10. Loved TIA's posts. Were he here, he would be celebrating the victory of PAPER in the mailed votes

Wonder where that guy went? To the extent that errors show up in the recount efforts, it would be of interest to know the proportions relative to method of voting.

[keepthemhonestO]

22. He got voted off the island

trolls were rampant and they were all over him when he posted. They would fight with him and eventually he left and never returned but long ago someone had posted that he had his own website so I go look every now and again at these kind of numbers. I'm no stats major but I know something is askew. I love TIA too.

[MadLinguist]

32. yeah I remember those mob attacks. It was so crazy

Everybody loved that silly dude Will Pitt in those times. There was another poster, Grey Something? who started a voter integrity site that had the word "bus" in it. I used to check it all he time. If you find TIA's site, give us a heads up, would you?

[keepthemhonestO]

33. Oh yeah I remember Will

I remember liking him a bit but then he did get a little wacked out with the popularity.

Yes They would try to attack TIA and when those were gone more would come. I hated when he left.

Overall I am terrible with names and then people were allowed to change their names a bit and I had no idea who was who after that.

That was TIA link in the original post!! this is him! https://tdmsresearch.com/2020/11/04/2020-presidential-election-table/

Have a great day and cheers on the win.

[BannonsLiver]

11. I never bought into the idea we were going to win the senate

And I definitely didn’t as the election got closer and public polling leads for our candidates began to fade.

My issue with these types of stories is we are told that the system is corrupt and we should not trust it, but no solutions are ever offered.

[keepthemhonestO]

23. hand marked paper ballots

that's what the Dutch do and they are happy with their results. I want hand marked paper ballots!!!

[Statistical]

25. Iowa uses hand marked paper ballots. Biden underperformed and so did Greenfield.

I agree. The standard absolutely should be 100% paper ballots. Hand marked for the most part and BMD only used for people who have disabilities that request them. That should be the goal nationwide. EVM should be burned and we should always use 100% paper ballots every election every time.

Seperate from that Biden and Senate candidates underperformed the polls even in states that have paper ballots. Some people (not necessarily you) don't want to hear that but it is the truth. Biden and for the most part Democratic candidates overall underperformed the polls nationwide. In blue states and red states. In close states and not close states. Now Biden was ahead enough that even with underperforming he still ended up winning but he did underperform and those just blaming it on those voting machines are setting themselves up for failure in the future.

[keepthemhonestO]

26. Ok that's fair

I should have taken that one step further though and said I wan them hand counted like the Dutch as well. If a machine is tabulating I don't think that is a free and fair election, they are counting in secret unless they release the code(algorithm) that they are using.