It's chilling to me that a total of 70,000 votes in three states

[Rustynaerduwell]

Last edited Sat Nov 14, 2020, 11:39 AM - Edit history (1)

stopped Trump from winning the electoral vote. We were that close to a repeat of 2016.


Edit- a later (scarier) post said it better than me. A switch of less than 23,000 votes spread across WI, AZ and GA would have handed Trump the election.

[marble falls]

1. Now do people get it? Every freaking vote counts.

[Ms. Toad]

38. Not only that - but the national popular vote is nearly meaningless.

I was being berated by several folks here in advance of the election when I repeatedly made the point of the OP: What matters is the vote in a handful of states - regardless of the popular vote spread.

[marble falls]

46. I think Biden is onto something - he's said there's no red and blue states anymore, just red ...

... and blue counties. I think the electoral votes ought to be proportional to the vote as in Nebraska and Maine. It would certainly be more reflective of the popular vote.

[Ms. Toad]

48. It isn't actually proportional - but it is closer.

Nebraska, at least, awards the two "senate" votes to the state winner, and then awards the three "representative" votes to the winner of each district.

Proportional, for Nebraska, would be closer to 1/3 than 1/5 for Biden.

[dansolo]

51. EC votes should not be tied to congressional districts

That makes them susceptible to gerrymandering. They should be divided proportionally.

[Ms. Toad]

62. They are all or nothing now.

Except in Maine and Nebraska.

If you want proportional in Nebraska, you'll be giving up the 1 electoral vote for Biden this year, and the 1 electoral vote for Obama in 2008. The only blue votes NE has ever given, electorally, since they are tied to the district that contains Omaha.

[benld74]

2. Yup. Can't recall the #votes, and

In what states? That won him 2016?

[StevieM]

11. James Comey won it for him in 2016. (eom)

[SoonerPride]

3. I still think lots of mail got lost

We just had too big a wave to let them steal it.

[Dem2]

7. This thought process

Is why this country is failing. Not saying it's your fault, but both sides believe unprovable conspiracies.

[Amaryllis]

18. It is not an unprovable theory that a lot of ballots did not get delivered due to PO slow downs.

They found the ballots to prove it. How many times did Judge Sullivan hear cases and make rulings about that?

[StarfishSaver]

40. There really weren't that many ballots

More than there should have been, but not in the amounts that some people believe.

[Blue_true]

21. Bingo. If the theory that you properly pushed back against was true, what

happened to our down ballot candidates? Why didn’t the massive blue wave sweep them to victory?

The fact is 70+ million Americans voted for a clear monster who seriously damaged the country and it’s economy over 4 years. Yes, we out voted them by around 5 million votes, but, if not for the 70,000 votes the OP listed, Trump would have been re-elected, that is scary and we really need to burrow down and understand why the election went the way it did. We had Democratic Party officials in Pennsylvania saying that Joe would win Penn by at least 150,000 votes, he won it be just over 50,000 votes.

[ProfessorGAC]

55. Not Getting Your Point

If ballots got lost/delayed, it would have the same effect on down ballot races.
Many of those house races where dems lost were very close votes.
Here in Illinois, Lauren Underwood won a nip & tuck race in a district where she has a 60% approval rating. She unseated an incumbent in '18 by a greater margin than she had this year!
We know that mail in ballots favored D's, so postal issues would have disproportionately affected dems in down ballot races.
You seem to be proposing the opposite, but the effect would be identical, up & down the ballot.

[marble falls]

47. So what "unprovable conspiracies" are Democrats pushing?

[AlexSFCA]

9. no evidence of that

we are on the left also susceptible to military grade disinformation efforts.

[Auggie]

4. Wasn't H. Clinton's three state total similar?

[underpants]

5. That was in 2016. Joe won MI WI and PA by roughly 230,000

Wisconsin 20,000
Michigan 145,000
Pennsylvania 63,000

[LisaL]

6. Add to that win in AZ and GA by 24,000.

NT

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. I think the OP is referring to the margins for...

PA, GA and AZ combined, but the total seems a bit off.

If Trump won those states instead, he'd be the EC winner.

[LisaL]

10. Trump didn't win those states.

NT

[Blue_true]

23. But he did come too close for comfort. That is what the OP is getting at. nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

25. Yes, just like Hillary didn't win PA, MI and WI in '16...

... but if she had, she would've been the EC winner.

Meanwhile, several people mentioned the combined vote total margin for those three states in '16 -- e.g., "Only such-and-such number of votes kept her from winning the EC."

It's a bigger margin this time, not to mention both Clinton and Biden winning the national popular vote anyway, but I think it's the still fairly-narrow margin in terms of the EC that the OP was trying to describe.

Using this electoral college system is idiotic.

[underpants]

60. Ok. Yeah the total there would be more like 90,000

but okays

[malaise]

58. Correct

He got significantly more votes than the Killa Con not to mention the PV

[SlogginThroughIt]

12. Ummm no.

PA alone eclipses that no?

[marylandblue]

15. Even if it's 230,000 or whatever, it's still chilling.

Especially if you add in the fact he got over 10 million votes more than last time.

[SlogginThroughIt]

16. What is chilling to me

What is chilling to me is that if he were even just a little bit smart we would be in SOOOOOOO much deeper shit.

[Yavin4]

13. The bigger picture number that should shock you is

Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million. Biden won the popular vote by 5 million. Yet each got 306 electoral votes.

[klook]

19. And the E.C. serves us how? (nt)

[groundloop]

34. It doesn't serve US, it serves the GOPer party.... it's an automatic 2 percent tilt to the right

[Celerity]

36. Biden will likely end up winning by 6+ million when all ballots are counted

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/11/12/in-the-popular-vote-why-wasnt-bidens-victory-bigger/

The U.S. Elections Project estimates that when the tally is complete, about 158.7 million Americans will have voted in the presidential contest. Six million of these votes are yet to be counted, and we know where they are. More than half (3.3 million) are located in just five blue states—California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. By contrast, the five largest red states account for only a few hundred thousand outstanding ballots.

There is good reason to believe, then, that the remaining uncounted ballots will strongly favor Joe Biden over President Trump. If so, Biden will likely achieve a popular vote edge of at least 6 million votes, with a winning margin of 4 percent.

[Ms. Toad]

39. But that is not what put him in the white house. n/t

[mahina]

63. I dont follow your

3 million, 5 million point. Didn’t Trump lose by the same number that Biden won by?

Oh you mean Clinton?

[Yavin4]

65. Trump can lose the popular vote by 3 million and still get 306 electors.

Biden won the popular vote by over 5 million and got the exact same number of electors.

This shows a huge advantage that the Republicans have in the Electoral College. They can win the presidency by focusing on a small number of counties in a small number of states to win the presidency. Whereas Democrats need massive, record-breaking turnout in large urban/suburban areas of these states that barely offsets that advantage.

[former9thward]

69. It is all California.

The margin in 2016 came from CA. The margin in 2020 came from CA. Whether a candidate wins CA by 1 vote or 5 million it is still the same number of electoral votes.

[Yavin4]

70. Californians count.

If California were in the EU, it would be the second biggest economy in the EU behind only Germany with half the population of Germany.

California attracts the best, most talented people from across the globe. Google, Facebook, Twitter, Warner Bros., Disney, are all headquartered there. California's economy is globally competitive.

It's a complete sham to elevate random counties in small number of swing states to have more electoral importance than the entire state of CA.

If we had a straight popular vote for president, candidates would have to campaign there which would mean that they'd have to have a platform that would appeal to a majority of the voters there. And given California's higher public education system, its economy, its diversity, it technological advancement, maybe they should have a stronger louder voice in who gets to be president.

[former9thward]

71. It does count.

It has 55 electoral votes. Which is 20% of what is needed to win. It has roughly 11% of the population of the U.S. I don't think the state is being denied.

[DSandra]

72. And California is more important than many of these swing states

California has been the worldwide promoter of America for over 100 years, has entertained the nation for over 100 years, supplies most of the fruits and nuts, supplies much of its technology, virtually runs the internet with Google, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Reddit, etc... California even built the Space Shuttles that were America’s Crown Jewels for decades.

[Yavin4]

73. Yeah, but we're going to let some random counties in the Panhandle of Florida have more say...

than one of the world's largest economies.

And we wonder why things are screwed up.

[betsuni]

14. I recently read Sarah Kendzior's "Hiding in Plain Sight":

"I spent weeks privately begging high-profile reporters with more connections and resources than me to follow the Trump team money trail. I urged them to start with Manafort, only to be told by them that Manafort was not a problem. Manafort had been on the Sunday shows they assured me, and networks don't put criminals on the Sunday shows.

"We launched a movement demanding a vote audit in the three states with closest victory margins -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. On November 4, Manafort had abruptly reemerged on Twitter to declare that 'battleground states' were 'moving to Trump on masse.' the Mueller report later revealed that Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were the states Manafort had designated as 'battleground states' during his illicit meetings with alleged Kremlin operative Konstantin Kilimnik. But the vote audit movement failed. Not only was there no audit, but the call to action was hijacked by Putin gala guest and Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, who used some on the money panicked citizens had donated to pay her own legal fees."

[Blue_true]

17. A lot of people here see the 306 to 241 and they don't see how

dangerously a seriously dangerous person came to winning and permanently damaging our democracy. When I look at over 70 million people voting for that monster, including more than 7 million “new” voters, I am terrified for the future of our democracy. The situation is like killing off walking dead that made it to your yard, only to look at a nearby hill and see waves of walking dead coming toward you.

Joe can have a spectacular Presidency over the next four years, but we will have Fox News and rightwing media saying he totally failed, and at least 70+ million Americans will most likely believe those lies.

[moonscape]

27. We're not out of the woods yet. We have 4 years of

protection, but I’m not convinced permanent damage hasn’t been done. Now that they are brazen and clear what they can get away with, when they get back in power via the skewed EC - watch out. The propaganda machine, which will intensify and refine in the next 4 years, will be operating at the true Warp Speed.

I’m old and grateful to have 4 years of breathing room. I really wanted to outlive Trump. But now I have another goal: live to see Dems win in 2024 and snag the senate in 22 so to make some changes, esp judiciary. Withiut the later we are in for a long-tern world of hurt.

[Blue_true]

30. I really can't rest easily knowing that 70+ million Americans voted for Trump and

if not for around 87,000 votes from three states, Trump, a true incompetent but vicious person would have been re-elected. I can’t rest easy knowing that, nor rest easy knowing that many people I deal with voted gladly for that monster, I wonder what is going on in those people’s heads.

[Yavin4]

66. Their culture is losing in a rapidly changing world.

So, they use politics to exact revenge.

[Blue_true]

67. I agree with your basic point. The modern world is leaving them behind, so they long for a simpler

time, for them if they are old enough to remember those times. What they fail to even understand is that those same times were horrible for people of color.

[Blue_true]

68. I agree with your basic point. The modern world is leaving them behind, so they long for a simpler

time, for them if they are old enough to remember those times. What they fail to even understand is that those same times were horrible for people of color.

[dustyscamp]

29. We need to hold on to every single voter who voted for Biden

If we do that and expand our base we will do well in 2022 and 2024. Hopefully President Biden and VP Harris will do very well and show the doubters that Dems can make good leaders and policy makers.

[Blue_true]

32. We can't have people repeating what happened in 2010, where

lots of people were saying that the tremendous progress made in 2009 and 2010 was not enough, sat at home and allowed republicans to take the House and gain in the Senate - we simply can’t have that happen again, because it makes gaining truly progressive policy change even more difficult.

[StarfishSaver]

44. Thank you!

[sleroy49]

35. The problem is

it's already been proven that Dems can be good leaders and policy makers, but a lot of people are fucking stupid and won't change their minds no matter what. Every time I hear someone question whether a democratic president can handle the economy my head nearly explodes. By every measurable statistic over nearly one hundred years the economy under democratic leadership performs substantially better than republicans, but somehow people think republicans are better for the economy. I even hear that from democrats sometimes. The only thing Biden and Harris need to do very well is convince people of the truth.

[Blue_true]

45. The problem is our democratic "consultants" fail to arm our candidates with

vivid imagery of how dominant democrats have been on the economy for over 100 years, even our Presidents around saint Ronny out performed him on job growth. You campaign managers are solid, but the image making consultants under then seem to be shitty at coming up with meat and potatoes images that drives the truth about how good democrats are on the economy into the skulls of Joe and Mary Sixpack - so we get called socialists and that sticks among too many of those voters.

[Beringia]

61. That's how I see them too, like people from Night of the Living Dead movie

and the same for the idiots who say things like "Obey your master", when Chicago Mayor Lightfoot makes a stay at home order for unessential needs.

[BlueIdaho]

20. The takeaway is this...

The Electoral College outlived its usefulness back in the 1800s. It should be gone forever. If the people got to directly elect the President, Democrats would have won seven out of the last eight elections.

Fight like hell to get rid of the electoral college - or at least neutralize it. Here is a pretty good site that could neutralize the EC.

www.nationalpopularvote.com

[roamer65]

22. Here is the solid case for dumping the EC.

306-232 two presidential elections in a row with two very different outcomes.

We need to get this switched over to a 50 plus one runoff system.

[Buckeyeblue]

33. No run off process...most votes wins.

But the EC needs to go.

[roamer65]

42. I don't want a president winning with a plurality anymore.

50 pct or greater.

[mcar]

24. Explain, please

[Dem2]

31. It's a sleight of hand

They're comparing the 3 worst states in this victory versus the 3 that we flipped and are comparable to last election and which put us over the top - WI - 20k, MI - 148k, PA - 63k

Rump won those by 78k

Biden won those by 231k and counting.

The post makes you think it was closer than it was.

[Sogo]

41. Thanks for explaining that.

It really is a disingenuous OP.

[Rustynaerduwell]

50. I was talking AZ, Wi and GA

Three States won by a total of 70,000. If Trump had taken them, her have won the EC

[Rstrstx]

53. The margins in those states will be about 45,000

10-11K in AZ, 14K in GA, and a little over 20K in WI

If he had lost those 3 Biden would have wound up with 269 votes (even with carrying NE-2) and the race would have been thrown to the House, where Trump would have almost certainly won

[Statistical]

56. Yeah I think people are getting confused because it is 3 states again but 3 DIFFERENT stages

GA +0.28% + 14,172
AZ +0.30% + 10,016
WI +0.62% + 20,546

That is how close we came to a second Trump term.

You saying 70K likely added to the confusion as that was the margin in 2016.

[uponit7771]

52. +1

[mcar]

57. That's what I thought it was doing

Thanks.

[Tribetime]

26. If everyone's vote matter equally for president and for Senate and for Congress

Republicans wouldn't win anything ever again

[WhiskeyGrinder]

28. It's more an electoral problem than policy problem.

White supremacy aside, of course.

[Rstrstx]

37. Less than that, more like 45,000 votes

If Biden had lost AZ, GA and WI he would have had 269 electoral votes, which would have thrown the race into the House of Representatives and Trump would have likely won there. The margins in those 3 states look like they’ll end up around 10-11k, 14k, and just over 20k.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

43. Good catch!

Ugh, the EC sucks.

[greenjar_01]

49. What in the world are you talking about?

Biden flipped five states, which he won by 20,000; 150,000; at least 60,000, 10,000; and 14,000.

Try to make sense.

[Celerity]

54. 45,000 (atm) AZ, WI, GA. Shift 45K votes split up correctly and Trump would have won

Need to see what the final tallies will be but it will be well under the 77K votes split between 3 states Rump won with in 2016.

That is just madness because Biden will end up winning the popular vote by between 6 and 7 million, and there will be close to159, 160 million total votes cast.

[IsItJustMe]

59. It does make sense when you look at how these congressional districts have been gerrymandered

Republican state legislators have redesigned, distorted and contorted these districts in their favor. Look at congressional district maps and you get a good idea of just how bad it it.

[BannonsLiver]

64. Your math doesn't add up.

We won. Stop the panicking.