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Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:07 AM

US CV-19 cases per day: 200K is the new 100K

JHU has yesterday's total at 184K. It wasn't that long ago that the MSM was framing 100K per day as the "nightmare scenario". Now that doesn't seem so bad, and 200K is what we should be worried about.

What's concerning is the purely exponential curve that started here in early September. This wave doesn't show any sign of cresting or even slowing at all. That's a bit different from the resurgences in Europe.

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Reply US CV-19 cases per day: 200K is the new 100K (Original post)
Shermann Nov 2020 OP
The Genealogist Nov 2020 #1
uponit7771 Nov 2020 #2
Shermann Nov 2020 #5
lapfog_1 Nov 2020 #3
Blues Heron Nov 2020 #4

Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:20 AM

1. As alarming as that number is, I am not really surprised

Americans have much less patience today than they once did. People want instant gratification, instant resolution to issues. I think a lot of people are worn down by this pandemic, and just saying "screw it." Add that to the maskholes who ain't not gunna have no gummit telling them to wear no mask, cuz freeedumb.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:20 AM

2. We'll be at 300,000 by mid Dec

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 10:24 AM

5. At the current R0, it won't take that long

It's doubling every two weeks.

You can compare the increase in testing (linear) with the increase in cases (exponential).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

So there is surely a correlation there, but the increase in testing is clearly not the most significant factor. This linearly increasing input cannot result in an exponential increase in the output.

I realize none of us here need to be convinced of that. This is an easy-to-digest irrefutable fact for the deniers to chew on.

In fact, I would expect there to be an ever-diminishing increase in cases as testing is expanded. This would hopefully be followed over time by an exponential decrease as the R0 value is driven lower. So there is a negative feedback aspect to the testing. You cannot overstate the importance of this.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:28 AM

3. chain reaction

self sustaining and exponential when you reach critical mass.

won't stop until either a certain percentage of the "fuel" is consumed OR someone inserts the "control rods".

Putin wants the USA to be in chaos... his operative, Trump, lost the election and is not going to pull off his attempted coup.

So A decision was made to try to make as many people sick and / or dead by the time Trump leaves office. LIHOP or MIHOP. Doesn't matter.

And it's not the 1.5 million of us likely to die... its the 15 million or more that will have long term health issues.

so no control rods into the reactor... we won't have a national policy of masks and "stay the fuck home" to stop the infection.

I had to spend an afternoon in a relatively "red" part of california yesterday, went through a drive through for fast food on the way home. Parked in the strip mall near a "kid dojo". There were hundreds of kids and parents there for some sort of karate tournament. Indoors... crowded. Not a single person was wearing a mask. People would walk TO the places wearing masks and TAKE THE MASK OFF at the door.

Un-fucking-believable. Watched this at a distance of maybe 100 yards and decided I was too close.

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Response to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Nov 14, 2020, 09:32 AM

4. full hospitals seems to be the only thing that gets people's attention

We'll be locking down again everywhere - the virus doesn't care it's relentless, but not all that hard to stop if everybody would participate in basic hygiene like wearing a mask, not partying and staying home.

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