How will the Suburban shift effect Gerrymandering?
Concentrating your opponents votes and maximizing your own by spreading them out. In the last rounds the Republicans have been able to use their suburban bases to create a series of 55/45 districts that would support their rural base and dampen our more urban base. That has been minimized and indeed with the covid inspired work from home shift in many professions will actually begin to extend that even deeper into the ex-burbs (even just having to commute once or twice a week will have young professionals moving farther out).
Rural America has continued to lose population at least in proportion to more urban areas. Unlike the Country States do not have fixed borders for their Senates and so will be forced to shift, in addition the most powerful members of the caucuses will to a large extent come from the safest districts and so will be the first protected. That means that Rural districts will have to grow larger in area making it more difficult to slice the remainder into semi-safe districts.
Lets look at my home state Minnesota. Now we are likely to lose a CD (we are always on the cusp). We will have our districts drawn outside of the legislative process because the Republicans were able to hold onto their one seat senate majority. What has to happen is that the demographic center is going to move south and east into more Democratic favoring territory. We are now 4/4 what will happen is that we will shift to a 3 solid Blue 3 solid Red and 1 Purple with most likely a Blue tint. Looking deeper at the State races just a quick look at the results so far sees at least a 3 seat gain in the State Senate and probably more like 5. A 6-10 seat swing puts Minnesota solid blue. The House follows the Senate borders.
This dynamic will play out everywhere. As it does even in states with Republicans in total control like Georgia or even Texas the next part of the dynamic comes into play. That is in the gerrymandered districts favoring the Republicans using the Suburbs Republicans are going to have to run as more moderate candidates. They got by with it this cycle because they could be Trumpy enough to get past the Primaries. That wont be available in the next two cycles and so the battles will be played out. So even Republican legislators are going to be more cautious to protect their own seats. So the gerrymandering will in my opinion be much more subdued this time then last time.
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