I wrote down these 538 state odds a week or so before electipn

[Tribetime]

Michigan 94%
Minnesota 92%
Nevada 91%
Wisconsin 89 %
Pennsylvania 85%
Arizona 66%
Florida 66%
North Carolina 65%
Iowa 50%
Georgia 46%
Ohio 42%
Texas 38%

[Laelth]

1. Well, they were right on the first six. n/t

-Laelth

[ExciteBike66]

2. Technically, they were "right" on all of them...

these are just odds, which means that even a state with a 94% chance of being a Biden state means trump could still win.

GA had lower odds of being a Biden state, but the coin-flip went our way...

[Tribetime]

3. I disagree the only state I see that's shifted a little bit toward Biden was Georgia

All the other states like Michigan Wisconsin Ohio Iowa all broke way towards Trump. There should have some states swing wildly towards us then to average out.

[regnaD kciN]

7. I think you're a bit confused on what "odds" mean...

They indicated, based on the polling data, what the chances of Biden winning that state were. They had nothing to do with the size of the lead in that state. You can say there's a 90% of taking a state and, if you win it by 10,000 votes, that prediction was right. And, in fact, almost all of the odds "paid off" -- only FL, NC, and GA didn't (IA was 50%, so it wasn't predicted for either candidate.)

[Bonn1997]

10. Very good point nt

[Tribetime]

4. Alaska, South Carolina, Montana, Missouri,

Indiana, Mississippi and South Dakota all had as much chance or more of turning blue as Michigan turning red. Yes I think the polling was way off.

[David__77]

5. A Florida win never quite sounded right to me.

...

[Rstrstx]

6. No that was obvious once the Miami-Dade early voting numbers started coming in

Every day the Dems’ absentee advantage was getting eaten into by in-person early voting, and it was especially worrying in Miami-Dade county, where many days there were more registered Repubs voting than Dems. Given the final results the Election Day numbers must have broken heavily for Trump (not unexpected).

Now Georgia on the other hand was a big surprise to me, even though it shouldn’t have been: Biden’s internal polling had him further up in GA than either FL or NC.

[regnaD kciN]

8. Yes, if I had been forced to make a wild-ass guess...

...I would have said we had no chance to take FL (based on past disappointments). I would, however, have been off in that I thought we'd take NC but not GA.

[Rstrstx]

9. Me too

But Biden’s leaked internal polling, while too optimistic, got way more trends right than they did wrong (NE-2, GA>NC>FL, TX>OH,IA). Shave about 3.5 points uniformly off their map and you’d have every state right except Arizona and the margins would be a lot more in line with what we saw.

[FakeNoose]

11. Ohio would have been nice, North Carolina would have been awesome

Florida and Texas are lost causes I'm afraid. But you have some good guesses on your list.
Good job Tribetime!