538 politics podcast - lots of discussion - about trump's refusal to concede, and voting trends

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Mon Nov 16, 2020, 11:31 PM - Edit history (4)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/americans-became-more-divided-by-class-in-2020/

I did collect some key messages, below

These are always pretty interesting to listen to.

First section on trump's non-concede is an interesting discussion. Generally agreed this is erosion of democracy - and that FB clearly doesn't give a shit about airing the ridiculous conspiracy theory.

Nate - three possibilities - sore losers, afraid of standing up to trump, and seriously deluded. (what's going on with trump and his supporters)

Clare - things something more serious is going on. Serious delusions going on. We should not feel safe and lulled in the current state of democracy - she thinks things are really not OK at the moment. Biggest problem right now is COVID and the spike - biggest story is coddling trump's feelings. This is not good.

Talked a bit about the transition and what Biden is going (generally positive).

Now on to electoral trends and divides:

Clare - biggest divides are educational, then gender - trump made inroads with men of all races, esp white men. But going to college and one's sex were the biggest indicators of how they voted. There are two Americas - stagnation of lower middle class wages, kind of life one lives depends if one is a white or blue collar worker. Farther from opportunity more likely to vote republican. Mentioned the competition for Amazon HQs - ended up in NY - idea we reward the already successful cities - people perceive economic perspectives to depend on where they live - the Dem message is out of touch with what they want to hear. Suburbs - more diverse now, but people tend to live with people of the same race - makes things complicated politically, esp with local elections. trump is often politically incorrect, but speaks the unfiltered language of the private zone publically. Democrats have a reputation of speaking in a more polished (disconnected) way - too filtered.

Perry - obvious is partisanship - less republican Biden voters than predicted. Density divide - closer to urban center, more voted for Democrats. Rural areas - republican. Education divide (as stated by Clare) - and racial divide still huge (people of color, vs white evangelicals). Thought Biden would do better with the white non-college gap, but the shift from how Hillary did wasn't as big as expected. Suburbs - starting to change - esp in AZ and GA - becoming more diverse.

Nate - any differences from 2016? Biden did better with wealthy moderate suburbanites (GA, AZ, Phila burbs). Biden did not do better with white working class voters. Lower income Hispanics toward republicans. Vietnamese Americans swung more toward trump. If Hispanic vote stayed same as in 2016, would have been the 7-8 point win. Trump tapped into those who feel a grievance - feel like they were left out. Does think it is about class (which is complicated - about more than economics). trump did comparatively well with LGBT vote - compared with 2016. Atlanta, Maryland, Virginia - some black suburbs are doing well - better than in some of the PA suburbs, where trump was doing a bit better.

Galen - is it about class, and this ties to education (and America is only about 1/3 college educated) - so does this put Democrats in an increasingly challenging situation? Trump talked about the economy a lot, and it resonated with these people (either for stopping COVID or restarting the economy - which is pretty stupid).

Democrats being perceived as the party of the elite is a problem. Also, the only way to have a good middle class life is to have a college education - these are problematic potentially for Democrats going forward. Conversations about demystifying community colleges, for example, is important.

What should Democrats do? With black voters, older and more college educated went Democrats - the younger black community is less institutionally connected. Trump's ads targeted this group. Also, more targeted spending to Latino communities in Florida. Next set of candidates should approach this differently.