Was the Inaccuracy of Polls due to Voter Suppression?

[TomCADem]

It is interesting how in Georgia, the Republican Secretary of State is blaming voter suppression that backfired for the reason why Trump lost. In other words, you have Republican primary, absentee voters who did not bother to vote in the general election. Of course, this does not measure the impact on Democrats, so the net effect is unknown, but it does show that voter suppression does have an effect on voting.

Before the election, I questioned reliance on polls given the incredible amount of voter suppression that many states were pursuing whether it be voter ID, slowing down the mail, or eliminating polling places and drop boxes. Of course, people on both sides were very motivated to vote, but that does not mean strategically placed voter suppression did not have an impact. For example, in Texas, the Governor restricted the entire county of Houston to just one drop box.

In short, perhaps the inaccuracy of polls is really actually a measure of the impact of voter suppression. If you slow down mail, limit polling places and restrict drop boxes in a State's urban areas, then you can probably gain about a 3 percent advantage for Republicans, which is what we saw in a closely contested election.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/georgia-secretary-of-state-reveals-trump-suppressed-gop-voters-he-would-have-won-by-10000-votes/

Georgia secretary of state reveals Trump ‘suppressed’ GOP voters: ‘He would have won by 10,000 votes’

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Tuesday said that President Donald Trump had himself to blame for losing the state’s electoral votes in the 2020 election.

Raffensperger told WSB’s Justin Gray that 24,000 Republicans who voted by absentee ballot in the primary did not cast votes in the general election.

The secretary of state linked the lack of participation to Trump’s effort to demonize mail-in voting

[ananda]

1. How does he know that?

I thought it was a secret ballot.

[TomCADem]

6. Voting History is Not Secret. Just the Voter's Choices.

The GA SOS is identifying Republicans who voted absentee during the primaries who did not vote in the general election. Usually, people are more motivated to vote during general election, then during the primaries. So, he is attributing the loss of Republican absentee voters to Trump's attacks on vote by mail. He is assuming that Republicans would vote for Trump.

[ananda]

9. Oh, that's right.

That's how they did the purges.

[TomCADem]

10. Yup. There Media Pushes a False Equivalency Between Voter Fraud and Suppression

Voter fraud is largely non-existent. Yet, based on this fictional threat, Republicans do push real voter suppression through aggressive voter purges, reduced polling places and ballot drop offs, reduced early voting, limited vote by mail, etc.

Why do they do this? I think the answer is obvious that based on their analysis, they can shave off a few Democratic percentage points in turnout, which can make all the difference in the world.

This is why I see the polling accuracy more as sign of the impact of voter suppression then of the accuracy of the polls in terms of measuring the intention of the voters. An urban voter who has been purged may be highly motivated to vote, and will indicate as much to a pollster, but then may show up to vote only to discover that they are not listed as a registered voter.

[pandr32]

2. There were multiple forms of voter suppression

So yes.

[Boogiemack]

3. To me, polls don't matter. VOTING is what matters. nt

[TomCADem]

7. The Delta Between Polling and Voting Results May Show Voter Suppression

Why do Republicans make voting so hard? Perhaps because it does make a difference. So, how would measure that difference? Well, you could measure consistent differences between polls and voting results and look at the reasons for those differences. Just because you want to vote does not mean you will be able to if there numerous obstacles to voting. Now, if you place those obstacles in strategic areas, then you can probably move the needle by a few percentage points.

[David__77]

4. I think it's related to self-selection bias, at least in part.

I think that, in general, survey response rates have declined in recent years. And any time that that holds true, I think that the risk increases that results will be biased based on differences in opinion between those who opted in vs. opted out.

Here's an article on declining response rates: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/

[TomCADem]

8. How Does Self-Selection Bias Cause Primary Voters...

...who are usually more motivated than most voters to suddenly decide not to vote in the General Election? If anything, you should have virtually no drop off except for people who are ill or dead.

That is what the GA Secretary of State was noting. He was not relying on surveys, but actual voter history.

[Towlie]

5. He's probably wrong, but why argue with a Republican who's calling Trump stupid?

[mdelaguna]

13. This! LOL! nt

[stillcool]

11. from what I've read, which I think passes for gospel

is that white woman in suburbia, black men somewhere, Cuban-Americans in Florida, and the phrase "Defund the Police" conspired to mess with the polls. Kind of sad. I hope 4 years from now, I won't be repeating it as gospel.

[JonLP24]

15. I wouldn't believe the conventional wisdom

The suburbs of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, & Atlanta voted for Joe Biden and they had protests all summer long. Cuban-Americans in Florida are registered Republicans why did we think we could win them over?

Notice no one is blaming Joe Biden himself.

A letter to the American public: Why ‘shoot them in the leg’ is not an effective strategy

If you are following the 2020 presidential election, you have seen how quickly fact-checkers jump on questionable statements. Unfortunately, it does not look like the fact-checkers were interested in some of Joe Biden’s unfounded claims at a recent town hall.

For instance, the former vice president made comments about how police officers did not like community policing or that good police were too “intimidated” to report the nefarious behaviors of bad cops. While Biden’s statements had me scratching my head, my jaw dropped when Biden discussed the need for de-escalation training, stating, “instead of anybody coming at you and the first thing you do is shoot to kill, you shoot them in the leg.” Apparently, this is the second time he’s suggested this course of action.

Most of us haven’t been involved in a police shooting or other types of combat where death could be imminent, which is why a convincing conversation on the topic of “shooting them in the leg” is difficult to do on paper. One way to paint a picture is using the analogy of a more typical stressful experience such as a traffic collision or even a near-miss collision.

While an imperfect comparison for a police shooting, a car crash/near miss can be a proxy for understanding a rapidly evolving, time-compressed environment that may result in imminent harm.

https://www.police1.com/officer-shootings/articles/a-letter-to-the-american-public-why-shoot-them-in-the-leg-is-not-an-effective-strategy-UOXIOH6n4pwJFmyf/

People can complain about "defund the police" which takes like 5 minutes to look up but at least it is a real solution. Shooting suspects in the leg is not.

[IsItJustMe]

12. They call you and ask you who you are voting for and you tell them.

Then you catch covid or your car breaks down or you go to the polling place to find out that your name has been purged from the voting roles. Big difference between intention and action.

[TomCADem]

14. Exactly. A Poll Can't Anticipate a Robocall targetting Democrats either...

...threatening them or telling them that they have until Wednesday after election day to vote.

The thing is that Republicans encouraged by Trump really upped their game on voter suppression. We see it now with Republicans now trying to contest the results of the election even though Biden won by over 5,000,000 votes. If voter suppression did not have any impact, Republicans would not be trying so hard to do it.

It is one thing if one poll was an outlier. But when different polls are off in the same direction, then this suggests that what is being lost are people who want to vote Democrat and intend to do so, but cannot due to voter suppression.

[IsItJustMe]

16. My thoughts exactly.

Lots of obfuscation, misdirection, and down right manipulation pointed toward Democratic voters this election. To what effect, it's hard to judge, but an effect it is indeed.