General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsImportant, from 538 "Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-won-almost-every-election-where-redistricting-was-at-stake/Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOPs victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office, thanks to their influence over next years redistricting process.
Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps. Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.
How did Republicans pull that off? By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake:
The GOP kept control of the redistricting process in Texas by holding the state House. Given that Election Data Services estimates Texas will have 39 congressional seats for the next decade, this was arguably Republicans single biggest win of the 2020 election.
Republicans successfully defended the Pennsylvania legislature from a Democratic takeover, although theyll still need to share redistricting power over its projected 17 congressional districts, as Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has veto power.
Republicans held the majority in both chambers of the North Carolina legislature, which will enable them to draw an expected 14 congressional districts all by themselves.
Amendment 1 passed in Virginia, taking the power to draw the states 11 congressional districts out of the hands of the all-Democratic state government and investing it in a bipartisan commission made up of a mix of citizens and legislators.
In Missouri (home to eight congressional districts), Gov. Mike Parson was elected to a second term, keeping redistricting control in Republican hands.
In an upset, Republicans managed to keep their majority in the Minnesota state Senate, thus ensuring Democrats wouldnt have the unfettered ability to draw the states projected seven congressional districts. The parties will share redistricting responsibilities there.
The GOP kept control of the state House in Iowa, with its four congressional districts.
Republicans maintained their supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature, enabling them to pass a new congressional map (worth four districts) over Democratic Gov. Laura Kellys veto.
Finally, Republicans surprisingly flipped both the state Senate and state House in New Hampshire (worth two congressional districts), seizing full control of both the state government and the redistricting process.
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last paragraph
Furthermore, some redistricting processes still controlled by one party think Ohios or Utahs have new rules in place designed to encourage more neutral maps. So ultimately, well have to wait and see what the often-messy redistricting process produces in each state and you can rest assured that will be a major focus of FiveThirtyEights coverage in 2021.
Mike Niendorff
(3,459 posts)Look here.
MDN
judesedit
(4,437 posts)These are important positions of power and they have not been questioned. All of the crowing about vote flipping and these race results are just accepted????
FBaggins
(26,727 posts)Large numbers of people voted absentee and/or mail-in. Some states (with systems that weren't designed for mass numbers of such ballots) do not start counting those for days (sometimes several days).
BumRushDaShow
(128,806 posts)and seats from the redistricting that happened then.
I think that despite all this (and even with how certain states will handle redistricting going forward), I had posted in another thread that back after the 2010 mid-terms, the GOP gubernatorial control was -
32 (R) - 24 (D) - 1 (I)
Now, post-2020, the spread is (so far) -
26 (R) - 24 (D).
So the hope is a bit more leverage could be exerted - at least here in PA with a GOP-majority legislature but a Democratic governor AND a Democratic- majority State Supreme Court (vs our all-GOP control back in 2010 in all branches).