Trump underperformed in most counties where he held large rallies

[DonViejo]

Many saw the rallies as a sign of big enthusiasm for Trump, but the data suggest the visits did not produce the desired impact for the president.

Nov. 29, 2020, 9:07 AM EST
By Dante Chinni

WASHINGTON — As the 2020 campaign wound down, President Donald Trump held rallies across the country to fire up his supporters and get them out to vote. Many saw the rallies as a sign of big enthusiasm for Trump, but the data suggest the visits did not produce the desired impact for the president.

Comparing Trump campaign stops over the last two weeks of the race to election results shows that in the overwhelming majority of cases, Trump underperformed his 2016 margins in the counties he visited, in some cases by large amounts.

There were 30 Trump campaign stops in that period, according to an NBC News tally, in states from Arizona to Nebraska to Pennsylvania. In five counties that Trump visited he saw better results than he did in 2016, but in the remaining 25 his margins of victory got smaller, his margin of defeat grew or the county flipped Democratic.

The numbers are important to note because they raise questions about how journalists and analysts perceive campaigns.

Crowd sizes are often held out as a way to gauge support for a politician, and sometimes they are. But during a pandemic, with a polarizing candidate on the stump, it’s possible the meaning of the rallies were misread. While the crowds were visible sign of enthusiasm for Trump, there were much bigger, and less visible, groups of people who were not at the rallies and who may have seen them in a negative light.



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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-underperformed-most-counties-large-rallies-n1249269

[Thomas Hurt]

1. Has anyone seen any stories on just how many rally goers are part of his

traveling band of cultist freaks and how many locals.

[soothsayer]

2. Maybe they were sick by time the election rolled around

Or dead

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Considering from what I've seen, his 'rallies' were very elaborate, staged events, and probably not

reflective of the community at large anyways. And like one DU poster said, a lot of them (rally attendees) probably ended up getting sick and/or dying, or were traveling rally attendees, permanently attached to the trump campaign, to gen up support for rump at his rallies, wouldn't surprise me.

[LeftInTX]

5. I think his supporters were hypervocal this cycle

It was like that in my neighborhood.
We had Trump caravans, yikes!!
Trump lost by 3 votes. In 2016, he won by over 200.

I consider rallies to be a hypervocal event.

[LeftInTX]

4. Good!

Our neighborhood was plastered with Trump flags, Trump signs. It was surreal and scary! It was like the Bif scene from Back to The Future. There were weekly Trump parades. It was intimidating.

Trump won my precinct at 55% in 2016.
In 2020, he lost by 3 votes!

In 2016. there were no Trump signs, flags or parades.

[Politicalgolfer]

6. Perhaps the people in those counties were disgusted by the clown???

There would have been local coverage ...so how many saw what an ignorant, narcissitic, bellowing, crude, filthy slob he is and also were pissed with his traveling Covid show which was endangering them??!!!

[LiberalFighter]

7. Hmm.... two thoughts

Maybe he killed off some of his voters?

or

He should had done more rallies in other counties?

[Retrograde]

8. Gee, you leave your followers out in the cold to fend for themselves

more than once after a Trump adoration-fest and maybe some of them - and their neighbors - get a clue.