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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHelp me understand why Joe trounced Trump, but why we didn't do so well down ballot
Don't get me wrong: under the circumstances, we did extremely well, IMHO. We've been gaslighted and lied to for years, and Trump has essentially had no opposition or check/balance except the House. He's had the total backing of the Rs in the Senate. The Rs engaged in massive voter suppression, and Trump tried to destroy the US Postal Service in a bid to neutralize mail-in ballots. Even after that, Joe still won, we still held the House, and we have a good chance to get the Senate depending on the two GA races. The bottom line is that Trump had the power of an unchecked incumbent, and we still got so much.
That being said, I am still not sure I understand how Joe could do so well in the Presidential race, but that we didn't convert that down ballot. I'm confused because so many people in the MSM say that passion for Trump brought out so many people. However, if that's the case, why did Trump lose by so much but other Rs won?
I guess I'm just not understanding how someone couldn't vote for Trump, who was allegedly the force that brought them to the voting booth, but would still be willing to vote for down ballot Rs. Folks in the MSM were gushing that Trump was so successful in turning out people, but not nearly enough to vote for him. There's a disconnect there that I've not been able to bridge in my own mind.
Is it that folks want a divided federal government? I can't imagine most people considering that when they cast their ballot. Is it something else?
I would welcome thoughts on this or any articles/stories that analyze how we got two seemingly different results from the same election.
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Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)defund the police and socialism attacks...some of the protests where looting happened didn't help us either.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)I can't imagine the average rank-and-file voter making a distinction about the police, the stimulus funding, and the protests between the Presidential candidate and other races. We all know that Joe and Kamala handled all of these issues carefully, but that gets lost on most folks.
Stallion
(6,642 posts)just have to be honest-I was not impressed with several Senate or Congressional candidates based upon the Texas electorate. I was more impressed by some Senate candidates in other states
The Velveteen Ocelot
(130,537 posts)DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)...Trump did an amazing job in bringing voters to the polls. I'm not getting that. If the down ballot Rs won, why didn't Trump do better, assuming he was the reason for the better-than-expected R turnout.
(Yes, I should know better than to rely on the MSM!)
Polybius
(21,901 posts)He wasn't supposed to get 47% of the vote.
brewens
(15,359 posts)DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)
I'm unabashedly one of them.
But what I still can't fathom is even if he out performed and is, ALLEGEDLY, the source of the Rs down ballot success, why it wasn't essentially one-for-one. The MSM has been out there with the theme of the election that Trump is what helped the Rs. But he couldn't equally help himself.
It may be what another poster mentioned. At least for the Senate seats, most of these were swing states that Joe lost except for AZ and CO. And Joe won all but one ME electoral vote, even though Sara Gideon lost by a significant margin.
And another poster mentioning that Trump did out-perform expectations.
Maybe that's the answer to this puzzle that I have struggling with since the first week in November.
SaveOurDemocracy
(4,566 posts)...in historically red areas. Very few tRump signs.
LAS14
(15,506 posts)
Beakybird
(3,397 posts)Collins got gazillions in dark $$ for voting for Kavanaugh.
Ernst was behind in most polls, and she trounced Greenfield.
Many races are in very conservative states: Iowa, Montana, Alaska, South Carolina, Kentucky.
I think Democratic donors were spreading their $$ too thin trying to get rid of McConnell and Graham.
jmowreader
(53,194 posts)“My congressman is great. Yours is an asshole.”
Here’s the thing: Members of Congress have a really high re-election rate (IIRC it’s something like 97 percent) so, unless the Member in question just totally abandons his or her constituents, they’re going to win their re-elections until they decide to retire.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)jmowreader
(53,194 posts)judeling
(1,086 posts)The extra voters who came out for Trump voted Republican down ballot. The anti-trump Republicans did not vote Democratic down ballot.
The question going forward is will those Trump specific voters come out for anyone else. I doubt it. This past election I believe is peak Republican. I'm looking at 2022 to be an unusually good Democratic year.
dsc
(53,397 posts)and much of the rest because of a massive tax increase for people on the coasts (the whole deductibility issue). Much of our gains came from CA,NY,PA,and IL one of which was redrawn PA, the other three subject to the tax increase. We did gain some other seats but I bet about half or more came from just those 4 states.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)To win back the senate, Democrats were banking on flipping seats in states Republicans won:
Montana
North Carolina
Iowa
South Carolina
Texas
Even Georgia was essentially a 50/50 state.
Only Maine so far bucked the trend and split between Biden and Collins.
In the hyperpartisan era, it's very difficult to win a senate seat in a state the Democratic nominee loses and there was no hope in Biden winning, say, SC or Montana. But he did win Colorado and Arizona, which flipped.
In the House, Democrats largely lost seats they won in 2018. So, they were likely Republican seats prior to that and shifted back to the Republicans. Gerrymandering has hurt the party. It's actually remarkable we still have the House with how badly gerrymandered many of those seats are.
My Pet Orangutan
(12,598 posts)10 - 12% of Republicans / Right-leaning independents voted Biden, as opposed to a 5% historical average.
Some of these voted down-ticket GOP like they always do.
Others voted GOP down-ticket for insurance against Dem policies that they did not like.
Finally, some didn't like Dems at all, but could not stand Trump.
Moostache
(11,179 posts)Did some voters only vote for president and not in the other races?
Did Democratic candidates like Cunningham in NC lose because of party or partying on with another woman not the Mrs.?
Did we ever REALLY have a chance in South Carolina? In Iowa? In Montana? or Texas?
Polling averages again seem to be closer in the aggregate than in the granular...overall polls showed Biden would have a comfortable popular vote margin (though that too was over-blown) and he did - winning by over 6.5 M votes and 51-47% split. Senate and local races are not aggregate style races, they are local and granular by definition, so whatever is causing the polls to be so unreliable needs to be understood as well...because it affects the decisions of where to place resources and where seats are legitimately attainable and those that are pie-in-the-sky fanciful instead.
The other thing is this - roughly half of this country really DOES believe trickle down is legitimate economic thought and that it works...there are a TON of deluded, controlled and cult-like devoted "R's" that vote for the team and the color and exist only to 'own libs' because the rest of their hateful little existence is so soul-crushingly depressing...but outside of that core constituency, there are also a good number of republicans who are privately embarrassed by Trump, by the Trumpers with their MAGA gear and profoundly stupid approach to life in general, but these folks could not bring themselves to toe the line on Trump again, so they split their tickets and went with their core beliefs on the House and Senate and local seats, but at the POTUS level, they simply could not hold their nose and pull for Trump again.
That's my unprofessional and probably depreciating $0.02 worth!
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)KPN
(17,377 posts)Republicans. Impeachment didn’t hurt Trump as much as COVID response. Likewise, Senate failure to convict tRump after impeachment didn’t hurt Rs.
GoCubsGo
(34,914 posts)A lot of the popular vote came from heavily-Democratic districts, which are also far more populated than most of the others. In my state (South Carolina), most of the Democratic votes are lumped into one bizarrely-shaped district, while other pockets are diluted in two or three other districts.
PurgedVoter
(2,715 posts)With gerrymandering it is a given that you can rule despite being the minority.
Kota
(901 posts)DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)Isn't usually the Presidential candidate that creates (or doesn't) the excitement down ballot.
The MSM is telling us that Trump brought out so many unexpected voters, but then they didn't vote for him. They lose me somewhere with that logic.
Kota
(901 posts)They are mostly moderate republicans. Several voted straight Dem for first time. They all really hate Trump, so yes I think maybe it had something to do with it. I think it was also easier to vote with mail for everyone. More info about how to vote and when.
rownesheck
(2,343 posts)too many Americans don't understand that our government doesn't function when they vote republicans in to office, even though decades of ineptitude and assholery have proven such. This citizens of this country are proud of their ignorance.
Behind the Aegis
(56,108 posts)I get where you are coming from, I really do; personally, it is something which swirled in my mind. However, look at the map; the electoral map. Every where we lost, all went to the twit...so down ballot, no surprises they also went to thugs. I think Maine is the only exception, but I am not looking at a map. Had Biden won any of those states, and the down-ticket democrat lost, I'd be suspicious. I am, however, concerned about the seats we lost in the House and as I am writing this, I am realizing you may have been talking about all races, not just the Senate.
jonstl08
(565 posts)Here is my opinion on this
1) voted against Trump but voted for GOP in Congress to keep a check on Biden
2) Dems should never have used the phrase "Defund the Police" ever. Should have been worded differently. I know it was used against my candidate in almost every ad the GOP ran against her and she lost.
3) Socialism was mentioned repeatedly in ads in my district and scared people. Most people still have no idea what socialism or Democratic Socialism means
dustyscamp
(2,706 posts)I think it goes the same for Andy Beshear beating Matt Bevin Kentucky or Doug Jones Beating Roy Moore in Alabama. I also think that we focused too much on telling the public that Trump was a bad guy and because of that we forgot to sell them our Dem candidates.
Democrats: "Vote Blue!"
"Okay, I'ma do that and vote for Biden!"
*looks at downballot*
"Um, who are these other people here?"
or
"I'll just leave these blank"
or
"These Cons have done me good so I'll vote for them again."
LAS14
(15,506 posts)... who draw the line at Donald Trump, but not at their conservative opinions. I found the huge numbers of people who not only tolerated, but seemed to take delight in his evil ways most distressing.
inwiththenew
(997 posts)I think his erratic and contradictory behavior on it cost him the presidency. It caused enough people to turn away from him because they view him as directly responsible. The reason why it didn't translate into down ballot votes is because Senators and Representatives are looked at as less influential on that front. They aren't setting policy like the President or Governors are. I think without COVID the election would have been much more favorable towards him.
skip fox
(19,502 posts)Many Republicans voted the Republican ticket but were so repulsed by Trump that they voted for Biden.
There's an unwarranted assumption in your question. Many may have come out for other reason than being gallivanted by Trump. Many, in fact, probably came because Trump did not represent their idea of America although they may agree with Republican on much else.
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)... polling this bad this long tilted towards one party in outcome as the US.
16 was bad ... 20 polling is criminal.
We're literally guessing if a slogan or term was the reason why dems underperformed down ballot polling vs looking at .... polling on the matter.
That's how bad polling in the US is.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)As I have specifically noted in my posts here that this is not my assumption; rather, it's the assumption that the MSM wants us to make: Trump-mania brought out the voters that put the Rs over the top in down ballot elections.
That's the whole point of my OP: I don't buy that assumption.
BadDog40
(317 posts)And simply didnt vote for anything else, they just knew they did not want Trump.
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)... telling the general public to fuck off on how dems underperformed polling down ballot.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)I am just being professional here.
1. Too much focus on Florida. South Florida was a dead duck. But we spent lot of time and money on Florida.
2. What happened? This affected NC, a very winnable state. Yes, Cunningham had a sex scandal but if Biden would have spent time in NC, we would have done well and Cunningham just might have been saved (just like Gary Peters who, to be frank, would have lost but for Biden)
3. Many women Senate candidates left out there with zero support. Think of which woman heavyweight would have made a difference in Iowa and Maine (esp. Maine)? Michelle Obama. She never campaigned in person, twitter campaigns do not work. GOP was knocking doors in Iowa and Maine (we did not knock doors nor we sent heavyweights). I know many do not like when I say this.
4. COVID. Knocking doors helped House GOP and not knocking hurt us. Yes, I know GOP is stupid and they don't care if they die.
5. Poor polling. While Biden had top internal polling (do not know who it was? He/she knew Wisconsin was razor thin), House/Senate Dem polling sucked.
6. Complete misreading of Hispanic support. This is extremely serious. They better have a high-level internal inquiry.
7. Many probable Democrats voted for GOP because they do not want shutdown as they were out of work. I know it is stupid. But it is what happened. An opinion writer in Kansas City Star said that some foolish people really thought Trump was sending them stimulus money because his name was on the check. I am not kidding!
8. AOC/Bernie, a few bad apples in BLM (looting, Defund the Police signs). Somehow AOC/Bernie are always seeing lot of support for their agenda. I support them but I am not naive. There is no support for many progressive ideas except in urban areas. We can never get them in a center-right country unless we have some tactics. Run moderate and legislate incrementally left. (Clinton, Obama, Biden?)
Kaleva
(40,365 posts)In Wayne County where Biden got 70% of the vote, down ticket races went our way. In other parts of Michigan where Biden only got 30% or so of the vote, we didn't do well.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)Agree about your area
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)Feel bad for him. He is a good guy!
BainsBane
(57,757 posts)didn't bother voting for down ballot races. They voted for Biden and left the rest blank.
Kaleva
(40,365 posts)Down ticket candidates did well in districts where Biden did well but down ticket candidates didn't fare so well or were defeated in districts where Biden didn't do well.
BainsBane
(57,757 posts)other Democratic candidates or we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Looking at Michigan, down ticket Dems didn't do well in areas where Biden didn't do well but did well where Biden did well. also in Michigan, Dems made gains in the state legislature.
BainsBane
(57,757 posts)Biden lost, which we know isn't the case. He got record breaking votes while other Democrats lost. Obviously he overperformed them, or that would have won too.
sarisataka
(22,695 posts)Or accepted by many.
The answer is that the statement Trump was trounced is in large part a failicy. Not to say he didn't lose by millions but the big picture hides important details.
Democratic voters are concentrated in a few states which can give a false impression of the overall picture.
That Biden won by about 6.9 million votes, more or less, is true. He comfortably won the Electoral college 306-232.
However California has a very large concentration of Democratic voters. That one state alone was +5.1 million for Biden. If California were to secede, as has been suggested here, Biden would still have won the popular vote by 1.8 million and his 251 Electoral votes would still be over the 242 needed to win.
New York also went overwhelming to Biden at +1.8 million. It is another concentration of Democratic voters that helps us run up the score but do not contribute to wins elsewhere.
If you examine the 48 states less these two, Trump wins the popular vote by a razor thin margin and pulls out an Electoral victory by 232-222.
It is therefore no surprise Biden's win did not go very far down the ballot. Democratic voters can deliver large national level victories but due to being concentrated in certain areas, they are outnumbered by Republicans in most local areas.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)Why not take out Florida, Texas, and all of the South except Georgia and see how Trump fares then? That's equally as artificial as backing out CA and NY.
When you say the Ds are outnumbered in most local areas by Rs, isn't that the same as Don Jr.'s infamous Red v. Blue map showing Trump's alleged dominance on a county basis, with the map being very red? In actuality, many of those areas are sparsely populated, and when you do the same map based on population, it becomes far more blue.
There's curren maps on that somewhere that describe this far better than I can. Here's an older example, but I know there's a current one out there somewhere: https://www.scientificamerican.com/slideshow/electoral-results-maps/ . I don't disagree with your point that there are more red counties than blue counties in the US, but it's the population that's the key. This does clearly hurt us in the US Senate and the Electoral College, where, for example, Wyoming's 2 Senate seats greatly overstate its significance in terms of population. The Rs are experts at milking this for all it's worth.
I think it's fact that Ds outnumber Rs, but Rs vote more. That's why the key battle is GOTV vs voter suppression/gerrymandering. The Rs focus on the latter, and they have to do this because they know for a fact they are outnumbered.
BumRushDaShow
(169,761 posts)When you factor for actual populated areas in each of those counties that provide the votes.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)I knew I had seen this somewhere (and often)!
BumRushDaShow
(169,761 posts)
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)Trump's personal characteristics and his running of the government turned off a number of people who generally support the Republican platform of:
- social conservatism,
- 2nd amendment rights,
- anti-immigration,
- lower taxes,
- less regulation,
- law and order,
- trade nationalism,
- global super power status.
Trump probably lost voters who are less anti-immigration (e.g. farmers needing cheap labor), more pro-trade and anti-tariff (e.g. would prefer non-tariff trade restrictions), and unhappy with his foreign policy of withdrawal from treaties and international commitments.
Biden won by running against Trump, not by running on the Democratic platform.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)I don't which of the publications/polling organizations has it, but one of them is totaling up the current popular vote tallies in battle ground states vs non-battleground states. If I recall correctly, in the aggregate, Joe was way ahead of Trump in the non-battleground states, and just slightly behind in the battleground states. In almost every battleground state, Joe did better than HRC.
That's an interesting way to look at this. If anyone recalls what i'm referring to, I'd be grateful for the link.
Again, the ideas here have been great and thought-provoking. Again, IMHO, I think we did very well given that was thrown at us and our candidates. And remember that, other than the Impeachment, there has been no significant investigation of Trump that hasn't been controlled by his henchpeople or supported by his Senate and House sycophants. I think that's a large reason why so many people voted for Trump. If there had been real and free investigations of Trump like Watergate, I think he would have polled significantly less. Even the impeachment was relatively toothless because there was no one to enforce contempt charges is witnesses failed to show up to testify or refused to answer questions without an objectively good reason.
To me, that's all the more reason that Joe and Kamala need to have their DoJ investigate the hell out of what has happened the last 4 years: it will help erode Trumpism.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)
KentuckyWoman
(7,401 posts)Launch Trump ... come back and win with a "normal" Republican in 2024.
At the same time sabotage Biden with a Republican government so he can't get anything done.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)About 4%. Not a landslide. If Biden had won by the margin the polls were suggesting, about 8%, then down ballot results would have been much better. The 6 million vote margin was largely one state -- California. The margin there was 5 million.
In fact if you separate the three west coast states, WA, OR, CA, Trump won the other 47 by about a 150,000 margin.
LeftInTX
(34,295 posts)Last edited Fri Dec 4, 2020, 03:57 PM - Edit history (1)
AKA: John Cornyn understands a woman's needs...
John Cornyn wears a mask because he cares about your health
John Cornyn is bipartisan...
John Cornyn has a soft side
John Cornyn REALLY cares about Jenna
John is ant=isex abuse in a touchy, feel good kinda way.
John Cornyn must be a good politician.
John Cornyn won't hurt Biden, because of Jenna's Law and all this feel good stuff.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)Here's an interesting WP article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/04/size-bidens-win-matters-it-is-huge/
karynnj
(60,968 posts)In many states, the majority of the districts go Republican, even as the total votes for the House in the state are for the Democrats. Consider a state where there are cities that are very very Democratic and surrounding areas that are slightly Republican. If the Republicans control designing the districts, you could get a few very blue districts and several say 55/45 red districts giving them more than their share of the state's districts.