We have 50 more days to Jan 20 and 150,000 infected daily avg and a 3% death rate that's ...

[uponit7771]

... an extra 225,000 dead Americans making the total 500,000 at our current rate if things don't get worse.

People please be careful seeing hospitals are going to start to fail

It'll take 30 days minimum before we see some changes from the Biden admin and Putin's whores stench of stupid when it comes to CV19 will be addressed.

Please be safe

[genxlib]

1. If the math holds

We are looking at ~4000 deaths a day for an extended period of time.

Math is undefeated.

[uponit7771]

10. +1, I'm thinking that's after Jan 10 where the BASELINE deaths per day is 4000

[FreeState]

13. How will no ICU beds effect this

I’m guessing the deaths may be more than what the math is showing if we run out of beds.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, I did not factor in lack of throughput at hospitals causing higher death rates other than the..

... the "ish" on the back of 3%.

Right now the deaths post outcome is at 3.21 ... jus ... damn

Also

We can build millions upon millions of beds and facilities its the staffing and equipment that are going to go.

My nephews wife works in a hospital in a medium sized city, people are in the halls in one part of the hospital and are going to start moving to the next.

Someone has go to start screaming loudly

[malaise]

2. Turns out that this pandemic will kill more people in the US than the one in 1918

Thanks Killa Con you fucking criminal

[roamer65]

6. Numbers wise, yes.

But to match the percentage, we would need to see between 3.5 and 4 million dead.

The estimate on dead Americans from 1918-1920 pandemic was 675,000. World population was 1.5 billion back then. It’s now nearing 8 billion.

Btw...

[malaise]

7. True but given the advances in science and technology

this has been a clusterfuck on steroids

[roamer65]

9. Absolutely correct.

The clusterfuck has been all due to Dump.

[uponit7771]

11. Yep, we're truly not doing much different than in 1918 despite a man being on the moon

[Squinch]

3. And this is not going to turn on a dime. It will take Joe some months to get it under control.

And even then, he will only get it under control in the places where he has cooperation from the states. Red states will likely not do anything to stop this.

[NickB79]

4. A lot depends on vaccine acceptance

If 30-40% of the population skip it, we could see a slow burn well into next winter as a couple hundred unvaccinated keep dying every month.

[roamer65]

8. It will probably get near normal again after winter 2022-2023.

If we use the 1918-1920 pandemic as guideposts.

Yes. Cases will be amongst unvaccinated mostly then. I do expect some vaccinated people will develop sub clinical infections and very well could be asymptomatic spreaders to the unvaccinated. That is why mask wearing will still be important.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. What Did I Miss?

Where does the 3% death rate come from?
The numbers I'm seeing are around 1.5%.
Was there some revision I missed?
Not that one in 66 people dying from it isn't horrible.
I'm just seeing different values.

[uponit7771]

14. From worldometers (link) looks like they're using the "Cases With An Outcome" measure ...

... instead of the total number of cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I can see that because total number of cases going on right now nearly half are not resolved meaning there's people still sick but not dead or fully recovered yet.

[Ms. Toad]

12. The 7-day average new cases hasn't been that low since Nov 14-15 :(

Currently it's about 170,000 - and likely growing.

[uponit7771]

15. I was trying to baseline the numbers throughout Jan with shut downs in the major states ...

.. meaning full NPI for 2 weeks.

I know, I didn't caveat it but I just can't imagine we're going on the same path as we are right now without anyone doing anything of note.