Trump's endgame for the next month

[PJMcK]

There's one thing that perplexes me and that's what Trump will do at the end of his presidency. How will he leave the White House?

Specifically, how will he protect himself from being prosecuted for his crimes as president? There are really only three choices:

1. He makes a deal with Pence, resigns and President Pence grants Trump a full and unconditional pardon. I know there are legal questions about whether such a pardon would be invalid since it was a conspiracy to cover bad acts. For the moment, let's say Trump gets a pardon and the feds can't go after him. Now all he has to worry about are the states' AGs, his financial lenders and maybe some Russian characters.

2. Trump grants himself a full and unconditional pardon and then he only has to worry about the same three categories. Except for one thing: If a self-pardon were challenged and decided by the Supreme Court, there's no guarantee that SCOTUS would uphold the pardon since it invalidates the judiciary, (Trump would be his own judge and defendant). If the pardon is thrown out, Trump would face all of the above plus possible federal indictments.

3. Trump doesn't do a thing. He can't trust Pence and after SCOTUS wouldn't help him overturn the election, he can't trust them, either. So he takes his chances knowing that he can play his usual rope-a-dope and just string along any legal issues.

Basically, Trump has a whole world of trouble facing him come January 21st. I just can't see what he'll do.

If anyone can imagine other alternatives, I'd love to hear it!

[David__77]

1. I do not think he will leave office early.

I cannot envision that at all.

I also think that he may take actions aimed at remaining in office after that which may be found surprising by many people.

[empedocles]

10. Quite plausible

[Irish_Dem]

19. I agree, he may continue the insanity after Jan 21. nt

[Mme. Defarge]

2. He could decide

to try faking his own death and be whisked off to live someplace in obscurity and with no extradition treaty with the U. S., reserving the option of someday appearing to his followers as if resurrected from the dead.

[Irish_Dem]

12. Right he could do a Kenneth Lay (Enron).

I always was suspicious of that death.
Wondered if Trump would do it, but he is too crazy to pull it off.

[Mme. Defarge]

18. I always thought the abrupt death of CIA Director

the day he was supposed to testify to congress during the Iran/Contra scandal hearings was way too coincidental.

[Irish_Dem]

20. I forgot about that. Yes highly suspicious.

A CIA director could certainly hide away forever.

[Mme. Defarge]

24. William Casey.

Brain cramp.

[spinbaby]

3. I wonder if we'll get a Christmas Eve surprise

That’s a prime time for nefarious deeds that you don’t want anyone to notice.

[Buns_of_Fire]

4. All my Bingo card says is "Think 'Tony Montana'". nt

[robbob]

5. But in tRumps case "say hello to my little friend"

could have so many possible meanings...

[MyOwnPeace]

9. Yeah, just ask Stormy!

[denbot]

15. AAAaaaaiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeee....

You warped my little brain!

[OnDoutside]

6. For me, I don't see how it could possibly be anything other than

Option One.

I've been saying here for the last month that Joe is more likely to be 47 than 46, and for this reason,

Trump is in trouble from federal and state indictments

There is a major doubt that he can pardon himself, which makes Option Two too much of a risk.

He is shameless, and his instincts are survival, so having to take a pardon is no big deal, especially after being impeached.

To do nothing is a gamble that he may not be willing to take, so I think that excludes Option Three.

This leaves Option One, where he can bullshit his base by saying that the traitorous Dems will be making shit up about him, to persecute their President, so he's just taking this inoculation. Pence will jump at complying, because it's his only chance to be President. He wouldn't dare double cross Trump.

By taking a pardon, he would then only be fighting on one front rather than two.

[Irish_Dem]

25. I wonder if Pence would do it. He wants to run in 2024?

Pardoning Trump may be problematic for him.
And I think Pence is becoming less afraid of Trump these days.
I think Pence is leaving the US for some sort of junket.
Looks like he is running away from this scenario.

But who knows what Pence would or would not do at this point.

[OnDoutside]

28. Pence must know he overachieved in becoming VP ? He hasn't a

hope of ever becoming the Republican nominee. This would be an opportunity of a lifetime, Presidential immortality no matter how shameless, would be irresistible to a bland nobody like him. It brings him up to a level that keeps him there for life. Look what it did for Gerald Ford.

[Irish_Dem]

31. A normal person would understand that. That he was totally in over his head.

I think it has been a long held dream for him to be president, a real one, not a few weeks president. And those kind of dreams can supersede rational thought.

But who knows what goes on in the head of Pence.
I don't think he is the sharpest kid on the block.

[OnDoutside]

33. Yes, completely out of his league, which is why I think he will know that this is his chance. If I

were him, I'd be getting cronies to be putting it about on RW media that a self pardon won't work and the Dems WILL come after him for federal crimes, to make a point. Get Trump scared into doing it, I don't think it would take too much. One hour being a President is better than a lifetime not being a President !

[Irish_Dem]

34. You could be correct. Getting harder and harder to predict where the circus will go..... nt

[OnDoutside]

42. The only reason I feel sure about it is that Trump's no 1 task is to protect himself, and he can

spin the pardon as a "They're coming to get your President", and the idiots will believe him, so there's not the same downside as with any other president. It's a free Get-out-of-jail card, and since he is also takes decisions in the moment, he'd use something like this to push off the day of reckoning.

[Irish_Dem]

43. The more paranoid he gets, the more likely this is. nt

[OnDoutside]

44. Yes, although TLPs ad against Mikey, targeting Trump, might just

make him paranoid about Pence !

[Irish_Dem]

45. I think I worked, I hear the ad is in his head now. nt

[OnDoutside]

49. Bearing in mind that he just pardoned Collins etc, it looks like

he's normalizing the process in time for himself...

[Irish_Dem]

50. I just thought the same thing,he is pardoning people who committed the same crimes he has committed.

Leading up to his pardon.

[OnDoutside]

51. Yep, a dry run.

[Irish_Dem]

53. He will pardon his kids too. nt

[Skraxx]

7. He Could Run, Because No Matter What He Does, NYS Is Still Going To Get Him

So unless he runs, he's busted. There's nothing he can do about what he's facing in NYS. Nothing, except run away.

And the Feds could still come after him as well anyway, despite any pardon shenanigans. If there is solid evidence he sold out the country, and I suspect there is, the Feds will come too and any pardon would be hard pressed against rock solid cases of at the very least, espionage, sedition and possibly treason.

[MyOwnPeace]

13. I really, really like what you're saying......

but the past 4 years has left me "hope-weary" and tired of trying to figure out the mind of a demon.

I had SO MUCH hope and was SO convinced that Bob Mueller was THE man to take honor, integrity, and justice into the courtroom and put an end to the madman's scheming. Who could have guessed that BunkerBoy would bring in BarrBarrHut to pull his huge a$$ out of that fire - and that SO MANY RepubliCons would roll over and play dead with that maneuver?

But they did!

And so, while I really want him busted in SO MANY ways - I'm going to hope he doesn't do anything too crazy or be allowed to do anything (yeah, I mean YOU, RepubliCons!) that could make matters even worse before Joe signs up for the terrifically difficult job he has facing him - fixing BunkerBoy's messes.........

[PJMcK]

29. Great points!

I like the way you're thinking.

[lame54]

8. He'll double down on...

Cheeseberders

It will be a race between the justice system and atherosclerosis

[onenote]

11. most likely: he does nothing.

He's delusional to the point where he doesn't believe anything he has done, while president or before, is prosecutable. He thinks that if any charges are brought, he can beat them and become a hero/martyr to his slavish followers.

[Irish_Dem]

26. I am beginning to think this is a likely scenario. He is getting too crazy to

focus and carry out any plan.

[Thekaspervote]

32. Agree..at this point he trusts no one, so he will go with "I know more than anyone else."

And ONLY I know how to handle this

[Baclava]

14. I know what his cult wants, Civil War! Armed Insurrection! The Final Stand!

[Irish_Dem]

17. Yes this is what they want. They live in a fantasy world don't they? nt

[David__77]

36. I've thought that a FAILED rightist coup/insurrection could be beneficial in a sense.

That sense being that it would have exposed many individuals and networks in and out of power and lay good bases for smashing them and sweeping them up.

I don't wish it - that's for sure.

[Irish_Dem]

16. 1) Pence doesn't want to do it, he wants to run in 2024?

2) I thought this would be the best option, but now I am not sure he wants to be humiliated by the SC again.

3) It is narrowing down to this option. He thinks he can play his usual game and win.

All of the options now have major drawbacks for Trump, this is most likely why he is decompensating by the day.

[Mike 03]

21. I hope he tries #3. It's one thing to play rope-a-dope when you're the president

of the United States, but he won't be able to ignore subpoenas and delay document disgorgement forever as a citizen. I think he will have trouble finding serious lawyers to even take his cases. Unfortunately, he will have a war chest, but he's got severe financial problems around the corner.

EDIT:

I guess I'm in the minority in that I don't believe Pence will run for president. I see him going straight to the Christian Nationalists, where he is idolized.

[PJMcK]

30. I concur about Pence

He's done in elective politics. He was too much of a bootlicker and he hasn't got any personality. He doesn't energize the base and he hasn't distinguished himself in anyway while he was VP.

Pence will end up on a cable show spouting evangelical stuff while acting as though he's a great elder statesman.

[regnaD kciN]

23. I think it comes down to one of two options...

First of all, your scenario of Pence pardoning him is unlikely -- I've read that Pence wouldn't do it and, even if he said he would, Trump wouldn't trust him to keep his promise once Trump had resigned.

I see Trump doing one, or attempting both, of two things:

1) Granting himself an unprecedented full pardon on every charge -- federal, state, and anything else -- and counting on conservatives on SCOTUS (who love "unitary executive" powers) to at least give him that.

2) Attempting a military coup.

My guess is that, after being told that he's unlikely to get #1 to fly, he'll attempt #2...and then, when the military tells him to shove it, will flip back to #1 as a last resort.

[Irish_Dem]

27. He tried the coup, the military said NO.

He could try No. 1, but he is going to have to get more focused and rational to pull it off.

[David__77]

35. There are other things he could to attempt a coup.

He could invoke the Insurrection Act and on that basis as commander in chief order the military to take actions within the US. I do not think this as likely.

Another possibility is Pence making incorrect determinations while presiding over the joint session of congress counting electoral college votes. I think that this is quite unlikely because I cannot envision a case in which a majority of both the Senate and House vote for the certified electoral votes to count, and not those of uncertified slates. That will rely on Republicans in the Senate like Romney, Alexander, Collins, and Murkowski.

[Irish_Dem]

37. I do not think the military will go along with any of his plans at this point.

I don't think Pence will either.

The idiots in congress who are threatening to pull a stunt regarding the EC votes are just going to look like the fools
they are.

My .02.

[David__77]

38. I hope that's the case.

That may require the willingness to clearly refuse to comply with an order given by the commander in chief.

[Irish_Dem]

39. I think they have decided to refuse orders.

I am sure the Pentagon attorneys are working overtime regarding this situation.

[onenote]

41. Pence doesn't make "determinations".

One of several sealed copies of each state's certified electoral college results are delivered by registered mail to Pence, but he can't mess with them because identical copies are delivered to the state's Secretary of state, the archivist of the United States and a district court judge for the district where the electors gathered. On January 6, Pence opens the envelopes and hand them to "tellers" appointed by the House and Senate. The tellers announce the vote for each state. Pence then asks if there are objections. If a written objection, subscribed to by one House member and one Senator, are presented to Pence, he directs the House and Senate to separate and consider the objection for no more than two hours, with no member allowed to speak for more than five minutes. Then everyone reconvenes and the results of the vote take by each body is announced. If one or both bodies reject the objection, then the votes as announced are counted.

To the extent a bunch of yahoos have sent their own "certified" electoral vote to Pence (with copies to the archives, secretary of state, and district court), the House and Senate are required to disregard that "certification" if it isn't attested to by the governor (and no governor has certified a second vote).

In short, the most that Trump's fools can do is drag out the inevitable, which is Pence announcing that Biden and Harris have been elected President and Vice President.

[Irish_Dem]

46. Trump assumes people will break the law, precedent, norms, etc for him.

He thinks these stunts will work because they have in the past.
And he got away with everything while president.

[David__77]

48. I appreciate the information.

I hope that it's indeed the case that there's little "wiggle room." My concerns include the possibility that the presiding officer will simply make illegal rulings (contrary to the statute). Would the Supreme Court correctly adjudicate that, upholding the statute's requirements? While I understand that that one can always engage in "what if" scenarios, I think that in this case, it's important to be prepared for some scenarios that may occur as far-fetched. I imagine and certainly hope that there is good contingency planning for various scenarios.

[onenote]

55. What rulings?

A presiding officer doesn’t make rulings. They apply the rules that exist. There is no wiggle room.

[David__77]

56. That could be parliamentary rulings.

For example, a paper (https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/92112/OSLJ_Online_V81_203.pdf) states about the 2001 session presided over by Gore:

In 2001, Vice President Al Gore stopped a co-partisan from speaking about the presidential election Gore was about to lose and ruled that any objection or other matter must be presented in writing by a senator and representative to be considered. Gore repeatedly ruled speeches by his supporters improper and objections to Florida electors of his opponent, Governor George W. Bush, insufficient since not signed by a senator as well as a member of the House. In 2017, Vice President Joe Biden repeatedly stopped debate and ruled out of order objections against electoral votes in favor of Republican Donald J. Trump for want to a senator co-signing the objection.

So, there may be ruling in line with the statute. I imagine that Gore or Kerry could have ruled otherwise, permitted delivery of non-written objections, for instance. I get the conclusion of the cited article which states: "The President of the Senate has only tightly
constrained, formal authority, and lacks discretion to make self-interested, dispositive rulings."

[kentuck]

40. In my opinion, he will recruit his supporters to hit the streets...

...and if they wish to show their support for the 2nd Amendment, that will be alright with him, also.

He will attempt to create havoc and confusion right up to the moment he leaves. That is more important to him than trying to get a pardon for himself, in my opinion.

[Irish_Dem]

47. This is where he is headed, I agree. nt

[trof]

52. On Jan. 19 he and his family will taker Air Force 1 to Moscow.

He will insist that the plane's call sign will be Space Force 1.

[NNadir]

54. In exactly the same situation, the "enemy" at the door, Hitler killed himself.

I think it unfortunate that Hitler thus escaped a trial.

I do want Trump to stand trial. I want him to die in prison, thus demonstrating that justice remains possible.

[PJMcK]

58. I'll accept any outcome...

... where Trump is gone.

[Stinky The Clown]

57. I think he will just leave and dare the Biden AG to prosecute him, betting the AG won't.